The most bone headed coaching decision

[JCSunsfan]

I look at it differently.

This goes to show how great Peyton Manning is. Belichek was so afraid to give him the ball with 80 yards to go, that he went for it to keep it out of his hands. And from that perspective, I can't blame him.

Basically, Manning won the game just by BEING THERE. The man is simply amazing.

There is another side of that. Belichek also put the ball in the hands of his best player with the game on the line. He would rather have Tom Brady and his offense deciding the game than Peyton Manning and the Pats defense. It's not as bad a choice as at it first appears.

 

[Buckybird]

You guys who think going for it in that situation are nuts!!!

This board would have melted down if Wiz would have made that decision to cost the Cards a win.

A coach has to put his team in the best possible situation to win then game and that call obviously wasn't the right one to make. Plain ass stupid.

 

[SoCal Cardfan]

You guys who think going for it in that situation are nuts!!!

This board would have melted down if Wiz would have made that decision to cost the Cards a win.

A coach has to put his team in the best possible situation to win then game and that call obviously wasn't the right one to make. Plain ass stupid.

That's why I can look at it objectively, because my team wasn't involved.

He played the odds and lost.. Doesn't mean it was a bad decision.

 

[Buckybird]

That's why I can look at it objectively, because my team wasn't involved.

He played the odds and lost.. Doesn't mean it was a bad decision.

Did they lose? Bad decision!!! Have you ever seen another coach in the history of the league make that decision at that point of game at their 30 yard line? Didn't think so.

 

[SoCal Cardfan]

Did they lose? Bad decision!!! Have you ever seen another coach in the history of the league make that decision at that point of game at their 30 yard line? Didn't think so.

And how many have faced Peyton Manning in that same exact situation?

 

[Early]

Did they lose? Bad decision!!! Have you ever seen another coach in the history of the league make that decision at that point of game at their 30 yard line? Didn't think so.

What makes you think that one decision means loss and the other decision means a win?

In this case, it could easy have been loss for both decisions.

Or..... it could be loss for going for it, and win by punting it. But that still doesn't make it a bad decision going for it, you don't know that beforehand... Football is a game of percentages. Obviously sometimes the more unlikely path can be the most succesful, but that doesn't mean it makes more sense

It's like poker. If you stick to and knows the odds, you will win superbowls in the long run. On some certains plays it may look weird, but sticking to odds is never wrong

This call was the one that made sense and there is nothing wrong in calling what makes more sense. That it didnt suceed that can be put on the reciever in this instance and just some bad luck from refereees

 

[Duckjake]

It never makes sense to go for it on 4th down inside your own 30 with a lead no matter how much time is left or who the opposing QB is unless your punt team is horrendous. We saw yesterday in our game how hard it is to pick up a 3rd or 4th and short in the NFL.

Indy scored with only 16 seconds left. Those 30-40 extra yards could have been huge.

Did anyone see the Pats assistant with Belichick knock/throw the cameraman to the ground while they were leaving the field pouting? EXACTLY why I hate this team and every person who plays on it. They are a bunch of classless poor sport babies. So happy to see Belichecks pompus arrogance cost him again.

LOL at the '04 game one of my buddies was on the field along with Stout helping bring the huge flag on the field and afterward took a couple of pictures of the NE bench. Some Asst. Coach started screaming and cursing at him for taking the pics. And... this was while NE was spying on other teams!

 

[Doug]

Another big IF to throw into the mix is that it would very easily have been a first down had he not double caught the ball.He caught it for a first down and then baubled it for a mili-second and thats why they did'nt get the first down.

ESPN showed it like 4-5 times as I also thought the game was over and went to bed as Rugby did.I can't believe that Manning and his recievers got that hot to comeback on the pats.Glad they did though.Can't stand the cheater.

It was so close to being a first down for the pats that it even makes you more sick being a pats fan.GOOD!!!! Enjoy your 6-3 just like the CARDINALS 6-3.

Now we'll get to see the pats play the saints in a few weeks and how close that game will be and maybe see which team is actually better.The colts or saints.Both are winning very close games lately.

 

[Pariah]

I don't have a problem with the call to go for it. The defense had just let the colts get down the field for 80 yards in 2 minutes, what evidence is there that he wouldn't do it again?

I also wouldn't have yelled at my screen if he punted.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Wolfley put it best this morning... This decision was only made because of the two best QB's of our era being in the game. Take one of them out of the equation, and the Pats punt the ball.
But, Belicik has enough fear of Manning and enough confidence in Brady that led him to this decision.

Still, ya gotta punt the ball and give your defense a shot to make a play...

 

[TheHopToad]

I don't have a big problem with the decision to go for it in that situation. Punting the ball back to the Colts would likely have had the same result, there was too much time left for Manning. He took a shot at the only option that would have secured a Patriots victory. They only needed one yard, which they may have gotten anyway. The timeout that Brady took at the beginning of the drive was the killer. May have been better just to take the delay of game in that situation, it would have preserved the challenge.

The bigger mistake the Patriots made after the 4th down conversion failed was that they let the Colts drain too much clock. Instead of tackling Addai at the 1-yard line with 1:20 left, they should have just let him score. The TD was inevitable at that point anyway. The Colts basically took a knee on the next play to run down the clock before Wayne's touchdown.

Had they simply just let Addai score, Brady would have had 1:20 left to get in field goal position for Gostkowski to win it.

 

[PJ1]

You make a decision like this and it doesn't work out you deserve abuse.

If it was such a good call why can't anyone remember seeing this occur?

 

[az1965]

I don't know why so many people are knocking the decision..
How many times have you watched Manning down by 7 or less.. with anything more than a minute on the clock, and he doesn't score?

He just played the odds.. The chance of converting it statistically, has to be far greater than Manning not scoring.

I personally applauded the decision at the time, and fwiw.. I hate Belicheat.

If you think a QB is so good that 80 yards is nothing, what do you think 30 yard field would do if you don't convert which is always a big risk hence the punting on 4th down usually especially within your half of the field.

Any smart coach would take 80 yards field and a chance to stop then give the ball to one of the best at 30 yard line. And they had played the Colts well defensively for the most part so there was a good chance they could have stopped or caused time to expire.

There was time and timeout factor as well. Colts had 2 min with no timeouts or probably one timeout only. Huge difference IMO between 2 min 30 yards and 2 min 70-80 yards

 

[gusmahler]

Statistical analysis of the decision. Cliff notes, 78% chance of winning the game by going for it. 70% chance of going for it by punting.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

 

[az1965]

It never makes sense to go for it on 4th down inside your own 30 with a lead no matter how much time is left or who the opposing QB is unless your punt team is horrendous. We saw yesterday in our game how hard it is to pick up a 3rd or 4th and short in the NFL.

Indy scored with only 16 seconds left. Those 30-40 extra yards could have been huge.

Exactly!!

 

[Divide Et Impera]

I understand the folks on here who say this wasn't a bad decision, but I disagree. That was a HOOOOOORRIFIC decision. Again, you supporters make good and valid points, but the decision showed how deeply Belicheck's lack of confidence in his defense was. He had NO faith in his guys, at least for this game. I cannot see that call being made from a position of strength and confidence. Rather, that call was made out of weakness and fear. Couldn't have happened to a worse prick....

PS - Can we stop calling him one of the best coaches of all time? He should have been banished from the league and all of NE's titles should have been revoked when he got caught cheating. Seriously. And I liked Belicheck and NE....

 

[gusmahler]

Indy scored with only 16 seconds left. Those 30-40 extra yards could have been huge.

Exactly!!

Wrong! There were 16 seconds left because Indy was taking its time and letting the clock run out. If they were worried about time, they would have been going out of bounds and clocking the ball.

First play, get to the 15 yard line. Then they ran the play clock to zero before running to the 1 yard line. Then they ran the play clock to zero before doing another run. They let the clock run to 20 before they scored the winning TD.

 

[az1965]

Wrong! There were 16 seconds left because Indy was taking its time and letting the clock run out. If they were worried about time, they would have been going out of bounds and clocking the ball.

First play, get to the 15 yard line. Then they ran the play clock to zero before running to the 1 yard line. Then they ran the play clock to zero before doing another run. They let the clock run again before they scored the winning TD.

Because they had only 30 yards to work with so they DID want to kill the clock so as not to give NE any chance by scoring quick... remember superbowl last year?

 

[az1965]

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Sunday-rewind-Week-10.html

Belichick’s decision
The decision by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick to attempt a fourth-and-2, up by six points in their own territory, almost at the two-minute warning, will be questioned for the rest of the season — because it went against everything in terms of situational football. In one regard, I give him credit for having the confidence in Tom Brady, who had owned the Colts secondary the entire night. But in that situation, you have to trust your defense and punt the ball. I can understand that Belichick thought giving the ball back to Peyton Manning was a risk, but those guys on defense get paid, too. You have to let them do their jobs and find a way to win the game for you, because no matter how great the Pats are with Brady and Randy Moss, there will be a time — maybe in January — when the New England defense will have to win a game for this team. So why not last night? Give them that opportunity.

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APManning and the Colts came away with the win.
To be honest, I’m still shocked. I saw New England as the better football team Sunday night until the final two minutes. The Pats run the ball better than Indy, they’re more productive on special teams, and there isn’t a defensive scheme in the NFL that can stop Moss when he gets vertical down the field. But even in saying that, Indy is now 9-0 because of Manning, and because of a decision that’s sure to heat up talk radio for the next week. What a way to lose a big football game in this league. To have the game in control and then get on that plane with this loss is tough to recover from. What a game and what a show put on by Brady and Manning. Fun to watch.

 

[gusmahler]

Because they had only 30 yards to work with so they DID want to kill the clock so as not to give NE any chance by scoring quick... remember superbowl last year?

That was exactly my point.

 

[Pariah]

Seems the cold hard unbiased numbers back Billicheck's decision:

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/defending-belichicks-fourth-down-decision/

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than 30 percent chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that makes punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

 

[Duckjake]

Wrong! There were 16 seconds left because Indy was taking its time and letting the clock run out. If they were worried about time, they would have been going out of bounds and clocking the ball.

First play, get to the 15 yard line. Then they ran the play clock to zero before running to the 1 yard line. Then they ran the play clock to zero before doing another run. They let the clock run to 20 before they scored the winning TD.

Wow if the NE defense is so bad that they couldn't stop Indy from running the clock and scoring a TD then they deserved to lose.

Also a big risk to run the clock needing a TD and not a FG. Talk about having faith in your offense.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

What I think is curious (not surprising) is the percentage of pundits who are saying Belichick made the right decision.

Really...really?

Could you imagine the national lambasting the Cardinal staff would've had if it were our team?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

What I think is curious (not surprising) is the percentage of pundits who are saying Belichick made the right decision.

Really...really?

Could you imagine the national lambasting the Cardinal staff would've had if it were our team?

Belichick has earned it. He has cred.

 

[Brighteyes]

I think he lost at least half that cred last night