Warners 2nd half stats in '07

[Russ Smith]

Chicken before the egg my man - we couldnt run the ball effectively because warner telegraphed the play before hand - he had too throw the ball because running wasn't an effective option. THATS why he was pulled out on goal line - not because of his elbow.

And he recognizes the blitz? Like in San Francisco at home last year? If anything Warner's problem is the exact opposite of what you say. He holds on to the ball too long.

Ditto that's been my big thing with Kurt aside from the fumbles where he just inexplicably drops the ball, he holds the ball too long and takes hits he doesn't need to. He also has the bad habit of just winging the ball in there and hoping someone will make a play on it, several of his INT's have been balls that should never have been thrown by a veteran. It's like he's just hoping the DB won't expect it or something.

But when he's been on he's been really good, there's no question he can still play the thing to me is that he's more effective as a part time player. Simply doubling his stats to get a full season avoids the obvious that there's a reason he doesn't play a full seson, he can't he gets hurt(as has Matt) and he tends to play his way out of the lineup. My take is the hits are cumulative he gets hit several times in a few games and then starts to drop the ball and make bad decisions and winds up hurting the team.

 

[moklerman]

He also has the bad habit of just winging the ball in there and hoping someone will make a play on it, several of his INT's have been balls that should never have been thrown by a veteran. It's like he's just hoping the DB won't expect it or something.

This is a circular argument at best. It wasn't that long ago that there were rumblings about how he needed to just throw it to Fitz and Q and let them make a play. The problem has arisen, IMO, because he's entrusted the other receivers to do the same and they aren't capable of doing so. Not to say that Warner hasn't contributed to the problem by not recognizing when to take a dumpoff or throw it away, but it's a double edged sword. Without speed and seperation by the receivers the play takes longer to develop. If the line isn't blocking as well as it could, then the QB takes a hit waiting for the play to develop. If the running game isn't working then the defense pins it's ears back and gets a good rush on the QB because they don't fear the run. If there weren't so many pre-snap penalties, the offense wouldn't be in long situations and have to pass so much, adversely affecting the balance of the playcalling and diminishing the threat of a running game. Etc., etc. My point being, much of the offense can improve to help the other areas, it's not just one player that needs to improve to make it all okay.

 

[Russ Smith]

This is a circular argument at best. It wasn't that long ago that there were rumblings about how he needed to just throw it to Fitz and Q and let them make a play. The problem has arisen, IMO, because he's entrusted the other receivers to do the same and they aren't capable of doing so. Not to say that Warner hasn't contributed to the problem by not recognizing when to take a dumpoff or throw it away, but it's a double edged sword. Without speed and seperation by the receivers the play takes longer to develop. If the line isn't blocking as well as it could, then the QB takes a hit waiting for the play to develop. If the running game isn't working then the defense pins it's ears back and gets a good rush on the QB because they don't fear the run. If there weren't so many pre-snap penalties, the offense wouldn't be in long situations and have to pass so much, adversely affecting the balance of the playcalling and diminishing the threat of a running game. Etc., etc. My point being, much of the offense can improve to help the other areas, it's not just one player that needs to improve to make it all okay.

Apples and oranges, I'm not talking about jump balls in the endzone or downfield where the argument is just lob it up and let Fitz go get it. I'm talking about some of the picks he's thrown directly to the defense like he never saw the LB or DB standing there.

It's just one of those things too often here as a Card he's been just good enough to get you beat. He's been brilliant at times but all too often he's made critical mistakes that have killed us.

Nobody is saying Kurt hasn't played in a difficult situation and wasn't brilliant at times last year, I am just saying as I've said for years now there's a reason Kurt doesn't play a full season, he can't.

 

[Russ Smith]

On the gloves argument I think part of the issue here is you're glossing over how much better protection Kurt had last year.

He was sacked 20 times last year and had 12 fumbles, I don't have all the fumbles in front of me to say how many were the result of sacks but that's a pretty scary stat, it says essentially every other time your QB gets sacked he's going to fumble.

So it's quite possible if not likely that it's not really that the gloves made a huge difference it's just we put a lot more emphasis on protecting Kurt because Whiz(unlike Green) was smart enough to realize that if Kurt gets pressure he fumbles.

 

[moklerman]

Nobody is saying Kurt hasn't played in a difficult situation and wasn't brilliant at times last year, I am just saying as I've said for years now there's a reason Kurt doesn't play a full season, he can't.

And I'm just saying that that's a sweeping generalization that dismisses the details and situations of what's happened. I wasn't referencing jump balls or hail mary's when I pointed out the contrary viewpoint previously voiced by some fans.

That he will likely get hurt is a valid viewpoint but I don't agree with the idea that he can't remain a starter due to his play on the field. 3 Rackers fg's from 10-4 as the QB last year. Doesn't count but Warner's play was good enough for 10-4 or 9-5.

 

[moklerman]

So it's quite possible if not likely that it's not really that the gloves made a huge difference it's just we put a lot more emphasis on protecting Kurt because Whiz(unlike Green) was smart enough to realize that if Kurt gets pressure he fumbles.

The possibility is there but fumbles don't strictly happen on sacks. Pass attempts+sacks is about the only way I can see to measure such a thing especially since the really problematic fumbles in Warner's case were the non-contact fumbles that were happening. I agree that Warner needs to focus on just eating the ball much more than he did last year but I also think the unacceptable fumbles are reduced/eliminated by wearing the gloves.

 

[Russ Smith]

And I'm just saying that that's a sweeping generalization that dismisses the details and situations of what's happened. I wasn't referencing jump balls or hail mary's when I pointed out the contrary viewpoint previously voiced by some fans.

That he will likely get hurt is a valid viewpoint but I don't agree with the idea that he can't remain a starter due to his play on the field. 3 Rackers fg's from 10-4 as the QB last year. Doesn't count but Warner's play was good enough for 10-4 or 9-5.

Not really, Kurt has been hurt every year now from 2002 on. Last year he played 14 games but many of them while injured. To his credit he was able to play while hurt and played quite well but it's an outright fact if Kurt plays, he'll get hurt.

And in the past the more he played the more he fumbled and through int's, that's how Leinart got into the lineup in the first place Kurt gave away that game and Denny finally decided time to see the kid.

Like I said on the fumbles I don't know how many were caused by sacks and how many weren't but a bet would be many of them were caused by sacks. Now if they were just drops then that goes against your argument that the gloves did away with the drops.

He's still a good QB but he's not a full time starter and never will be again, he simply can't play a full season.

The problem so far is neither can Matt, hopefully we find out this year he can because if he can't we're going to be talking about QB's in the future.

 

[moklerman]

Not really, Kurt has been hurt every year now from 2002 on.

please refer to my earlier post:

That he will likely get hurt is a valid viewpoint

And in the past the more he played the more he fumbled and through int's,

It may be true that if he plays and if he gets sacked at a high rate like in the past his fumbling may be as bad as it ever was but last year, he didn't starting fumbling more as the year went on and that was with a dislocated elbow for much of the season.

Now if they were just drops then that goes against your argument that the gloves did away with the drops.

It certainly would but I really don't think it's the case. Warner had 10 fumbles in less than 4 games in '06 and many of those were just plain drops. His fumbles didn't disappear in '07 but they were much more under control. The still need to be addressed and further curtailed but the marked improvement from '06 to '07 seems to indicate that there might be a way to do it. The gloves helped address the physical limitation and this year's drill might address the technique/approach problems.

I don't really think Warner's going to play that much in '08 anyway so it's not really an actual issue.

 

[Russ Smith]

please refer to my earlier post:
It may be true that if he plays and if he gets sacked at a high rate like in the past his fumbling may be as bad as it ever was but last year, he didn't starting fumbling more as the year went on and that was with a dislocated elbow for much of the season.
It certainly would but I really don't think it's the case. Warner had 10 fumbles in less than 4 games in '06 and many of those were just plain drops. His fumbles didn't disappear in '07 but they were much more under control. The still need to be addressed and further curtailed but the marked improvement from '06 to '07 seems to indicate that there might be a way to do it. The gloves helped address the physical limitation and this year's drill might address the technique/approach problems.

I don't really think Warner's going to play that much in '08 anyway so it's not really an actual issue.

Again last year he didn't get sacked much, I don't know if it's possible for our OL to be that good at protecting him again if he has to play. It's reasonable to assume we'll give up more sacks this year and if Kurt is back there getting hit, he'll fumble.

That's why I suspect they named Matt the starter with no open competition like you objected to, they already know what Kurt is a guy who can help you a lot in a limited role. Now they need to find out if Matt can be a real starting QB and play a full season or not.

 

[moklerman]

That's why I suspect they named Matt the starter with no open competition like you objected to, they already know what Kurt is a guy who can help you a lot in a limited role. Now they need to find out if Matt can be a real starting QB and play a full season or not

That's why I alluded to the circular argument earlier. While I agree that if he gets sacked a lot more his fumbling might still be the problem that it was, that assumes all the other aspects of the offense would remain the same. I think the running game will be improved(hopefully much improved) and the defense will be better overall if the depth is better than it was last year. Using just those two examples of differences I think Warner would have on offense, I think his fumbling would curtail. Being in a known passing situation has been a curse Warner has had to deal with since '02. Teams know he's going to be passing the ball and in addition know that he's got a weak grip when it comes to fumbling. Defenses fore go stopping the run as a focus and risk going after sacks/strips/fumbles with Warner. And rightly so. I'd do the same thing if I was a D coordinator.

If the Cardinals run the ball better, use some play action, have a lead, can get the ball back, don't have false starts/procedure penalties, etc. it will put either QB in a position to perform better. I actually think they will do all of these things better(maybe not "well" just yet) and that Leinart will stay healthy, thus in the lineup. Healthy and marginal is all they require out of Leinart. Anything more is gravy.

 

[BigRedRage]

Jesus Mokler, your going to protect him till the day he retires arent you?

 

[Russ Smith]

That's why I alluded to the circular argument earlier. While I agree that if he gets sacked a lot more his fumbling might still be the problem that it was, that assumes all the other aspects of the offense would remain the same. I think the running game will be improved(hopefully much improved) and the defense will be better overall if the depth is better than it was last year. Using just those two examples of differences I think Warner would have on offense, I think his fumbling would curtail. Being in a known passing situation has been a curse Warner has had to deal with since '02. Teams know he's going to be passing the ball and in addition know that he's got a weak grip when it comes to fumbling. Defenses fore go stopping the run as a focus and risk going after sacks/strips/fumbles with Warner. And rightly so. I'd do the same thing if I was a D coordinator.

If the Cardinals run the ball better, use some play action, have a lead, can get the ball back, don't have false starts/procedure penalties, etc. it will put either QB in a position to perform better. I actually think they will do all of these things better(maybe not "well" just yet) and that Leinart will stay healthy, thus in the lineup. Healthy and marginal is all they require out of Leinart. Anything more is gravy.

I guess I just don't believe Kurt fumbles because people know he's going to throw the ball.

He fumbles because ever since that injury in St. Louis, he can't grip the ball as well as he used to. And he seems to get a bit "dizzy" (for lack of a better word) when he takes a few hits.

He gets a bit punch drunk and just starts turning it over, now if your arugment is if we have a great run game that won't matter as much I agree.

I was merely commenting on why I think the cards chose to not have an open contest at QB despite Kurt's 27 TD passes last year, I think they recognize that the odds are if he is the starter he won't finish the season. It's like Rich Harden the pitcher, as long as you limit his pitches he can be really good, when his pitch count gets too high, he gets hurt. You have to realize that before you decide how to use him.

 

[moklerman]

Jesus Mokler, your going to protect him till the day he retires arent you?

I don't think anything I've said is unconditional defense of Warner. I favor him but not without reason.

He fumbles because ever since that injury in St. Louis, he can't grip the ball as well as he used to.

I agree with that but even I wonder how much he would have fumbled if he'd been on a mediocre team rather than a juggernaut like the GSOT. I mean, he could have been a fumbler from the very beginning. Even in 1999 he had 9 fumbles in 29 sacks so I don't think he's ever been really adept at protecting the ball in that way. Not like...I was going to say Palmer but he fumbled 15 times in '06. Then I was going to say Brady but he pretty much fumbles 12 or 13 times every year too. So, I don't have an example of a guy who just doesn't fumble. My contention is that from what I've seen, with the gloves, he's at least back to or close to his GSOT self in terms of fumbling.

I was merely commenting on why I think the cards chose to not have an open contest at QB despite Kurt's 27 TD passes last year, I think they recognize that the odds are if he is the starter he won't finish the season.

The coaches certainly know more than any of us about what's going on in practice or what happened in terms of routes being run, executing the actual play and everything else. There are many factors outside of Warner's onfield performance/ability that weigh more on the subject of his chance to start in my opinion. It might be 51% to 49% but cumulatively, I think circumstances are more of a factor than performance in the decision to give Leinart the starting nod(again).

 

[Russ Smith]

I don't think anything I've said is unconditional defense of Warner. I favor him but not without reason.
I agree with that but even I wonder how much he would have fumbled if he'd been on a mediocre team rather than a juggernaut like the GSOT. I mean, he could have been a fumbler from the very beginning. Even in 1999 he had 9 fumbles in 29 sacks so I don't think he's ever been really adept at protecting the ball in that way. Not like...I was going to say Palmer but he fumbled 15 times in '06. Then I was going to say Brady but he pretty much fumbles 12 or 13 times every year too. So, I don't have an example of a guy who just doesn't fumble. My contention is that from what I've seen, with the gloves, he's at least back to or close to his GSOT self in terms of fumbling.
The coaches certainly know more than any of us about what's going on in practice or what happened in terms of routes being run, executing the actual play and everything else. There are many factors outside of Warner's onfield performance/ability that weigh more on the subject of his chance to start in my opinion. It might be 51% to 49% but cumulatively, I think circumstances are more of a factor than performance in the decision to give Leinart the starting nod(again).

Of course there are but in the end you want your best QB as your starter and you want a guy who's going to finish the season as your QB. Generally when you go into a season with a starter that you don't expect to be the starter at the end, it's a veteran QB with a young QB coming up who you expect to take over during the season.

We did that Matt's rookie year, he showed enough that we decided he was the guy for the future and named him the starter. Having an open competition now only makes sense if you believe one of the other QB's has a reasonable shot at being the starter all year and I think it's pretty clear they don't think Warner does.

I like that Kurt wants to start, I also like that he seems to have been very helpful to Matt's learning curve, but unnless Matt gets hurt again or just completely fails, it's in the best long term interest of the franchise to start Matt and use Kurt only as needed, so having an open contest just wouldn't make much sense to me.

 

[moklerman]

Having an open competition now only makes sense if you believe one of the other QB's has a reasonable shot at being the starter all year and I think it's pretty clear they don't think Warner does.

Unfortunately, that there's any question or chance at all that Warner has a chance means that they aren't sure about Leinart either. Leinart showed promise in '05 but didn't take the bull by the horns in '06. Warner was signed as a starter and lost his job. Most recently, Warner has redeemed himself more than Leinart has. Whis seems like he's really enthusiastic about what he's seen from Leinart and rarely offers any of the same type of enthusiasm about Warner so I concur that Leinart is as much "their guy" as someone the didn't draft or sign could be.

 

[Russ Smith]

Unfortunately, that there's any question or chance at all that Warner has a chance means that they aren't sure about Leinart either. Leinart showed promise in '05 but didn't take the bull by the horns in '06. Warner was signed as a starter and lost his job. Most recently, Warner has redeemed himself more than Leinart has. Whis seems like he's really enthusiastic about what he's seen from Leinart and rarely offers any of the same type of enthusiasm about Warner so I concur that Leinart is as much "their guy" as someone the didn't draft or sign could be.

Well with all due respect it seems you're the only one(or one of a small group) that actually feels Kurt has a chance to be the starter.

That doesn't mean he might not be better than Matt right now he probably still is but the Cards have decided Matt is the better bet to be the QB the whole season and beyond.

I don't think it's a huge shock Matt struggled last year his rookie year was with a lame duck coach and the whole OC controversy, I don't think he got a lot of great coaching that year despite Green's prior rep as a QB guru. First thing Whiz did when he took over was completely break down Matt's mechanics and redo them.

Kurt on the other hand played several years for Martz a guy notorious for being driven to get his Qb's to be mechanically sound. If Matt had stayed healthy I think it's reasonable to assume he would have eventually settled in and played better, would he have put up 27 TD"s very unlikely, but I don't think he was going to be that bad the whole year and I think it's clear Whiz agrees since he named him the starter.

In the end that's all that really matters what Whiz thinks. If your point is it's not "Fair" that Kurt isn't getting to compete for the starter job that may be true, but professional sports are often unfair.

 

[moklerman]

Well with all due respect it seems you're the only one(or one of a small group) that actually feels Kurt has a chance to be the starter.

I don't think it's likely or probable in any way but it is a controversy in the media and with fans as well as Warner thinking he's got at least some kind of shot so I'm not delusional about this. A snowball's chance is still a chance. If Leinart struggles(not likely) during the preseason or whatever there is some scenario where even Warner believes he has an opportunity.

In the end that's all that really matters what Whiz thinks. If your point is it's not "Fair" that Kurt isn't getting to compete for the starter job that may be true, but professional sports are often unfair.

Well, it's not that unusual for a player to take a job from his counterpart if the team responds and outperforms the other. Warner got his first job that way, Brady got his job that way, Favre got his that way, etc.

 

[Russ Smith]

I don't think it's likely or probable in any way but it is a controversy in the media and with fans as well as Warner thinking he's got at least some kind of shot so I'm not delusional about this. A snowball's chance is still a chance. If Leinart struggles(not likely) during the preseason or whatever there is some scenario where even Warner believes he has an opportunity.
Well, it's not that unusual for a player to take a job from his counterpart if the team responds and outperforms the other. Warner got his first job that way, Brady got his job that way, Favre got his that way, etc.

AS mentioned before if Kurt didn't want to start I wouldn't want him on the team. At his age with his past success he HAS to want to start otherwise he no longer has confidence and you let him go.

Kurt got his first job via injury to Trent Green, Brady got his job via injury to Bledsoe, both played so well they kept the job and forced the other guy out of town.

I think we were all hoping that Matt would do the same thing as a rookie but he wasn't quite ready to do so and then regressed last year. Hopefully this is the year he plays so well nobody is clamoring for Warner.

But let's be honest its an old NFL adage the backup QB is usually the most popular player on the team with the fans, very few teams are so good that the starting QB doesn't get heat from the fans. Look at Eli Manning before last year.

 

[moklerman]

AS mentioned before if Kurt didn't want to start I wouldn't want him on the team. At his age with his past success he HAS to want to start otherwise he no longer has confidence and you let him go.

Very true. No one wants a Kerry Collins or David Carr as their QB. I think it's been conveyed that Warner has, however remote it may be, some shot at starting though. He wouldn't have stayed in Arizona otherwise.

Look at Eli Manning before last year.

Believe me, Manning has ruined any chance at a rational conversation about this type of thing. Now, it is gospel that a team must stick with the young QB because "look at Eli Manning".

 

[Cards232]

Some of you folks that use Eli Manning as an example of why we need to stick w/ Matt need to get a much better example. Mannings numbers since Kurt left have been pedestrian to say the least.

He had 23 td's, 20 int.'s, 13 fumbles, & a qb rating of 73.9 last year. Wow! What a stud! If it weren't for Tyree's miraculous catch in the SB, Mannings season goes down as a turd. Just like w/ Baltimore a few years ago, the Giants won b/c of their defense, not b/c of Manning.

Manning was the 18th rated qb in the NFL last year, far behind Rivers who he was traded for b/c of his temper tantrum, & behind such noteable qb's as Brunnel, Losman, Carr, & Kitna.

Manning is hardly a good example to make your case with, unless your case is that a team wins w/ defense, & NOT a good qb.

 

[moklerman]

I agree with everything you wrote Cards232 but for some, it's as simple as "stay with the young QB and eventually you'll win the Super Bowl. Look at Eli Manning." For some reason, the Akili Smiths, Tim Couchs and Drew Hensens of the world are irrelevant.

 

[Russ Smith]

Very true. No one wants a Kerry Collins or David Carr as their QB. I think it's been conveyed that Warner has, however remote it may be, some shot at starting though. He wouldn't have stayed in Arizona otherwise.

Believe me, Manning has ruined any chance at a rational conversation about this type of thing. Now, it is gospel that a team must stick with the young QB because "look at Eli Manning".

No you missed my point I was talking about the fan perspective. Fans almost always love the backup QB, because most teams are not so set at QB that the starter is immune to criticism. They lose the fans tend to blame the starting QB.

Eli was the classic example he went into last year positively hated by the fans, a former teammate ripped him(Tiki Barber). Now you don't hear any negatives about him at all. It's amazing what one Super Bowl did for the fan perception of him, even last year he wasn't exactly a great QB 23 TD 20 picks under 75 passer rating but they won it all and suddenly nobody seems worried about him at QB anymore.

 

[Russ Smith]

Some of you folks that use Eli Manning as an example of why we need to stick w/ Matt need to get a much better example. Mannings numbers since Kurt left have been pedestrian to say the least.

He had 23 td's, 20 int.'s, 13 fumbles, & a qb rating of 73.9 last year. Wow! What a stud! If it weren't for Tyree's miraculous catch in the SB, Mannings season goes down as a turd. Just like w/ Baltimore a few years ago, the Giants won b/c of their defense, not b/c of Manning.

Manning was the 18th rated qb in the NFL last year, far behind Rivers who he was traded for b/c of his temper tantrum, & behind such noteable qb's as Brunnel, Losman, Carr, & Kitna.

Manning is hardly a good example to make your case with, unless your case is that a team wins w/ defense, & NOT a good qb.

See my reply to moklerman.

I was talking about fan reaction to QB's.

I completely agree on Eli he was carried to that title.

 

[Russ Smith]

I agree with everything you wrote Cards232 but for some, it's as simple as "stay with the young QB and eventually you'll win the Super Bowl. Look at Eli Manning." For some reason, the Akili Smiths, Tim Couchs and Drew Hensens of the world are irrelevant.

Henson started 1 game in his NFL career so he's not a good example to use of a team staying with a young QB.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Some of you folks that use Eli Manning as an example of why we need to stick w/ Matt need to get a much better example. Mannings numbers since Kurt left have been pedestrian to say the least.

He had 23 td's, 20 int.'s, 13 fumbles, & a qb rating of 73.9 last year. Wow! What a stud! If it weren't for Tyree's miraculous catch in the SB, Mannings season goes down as a turd. Just like w/ Baltimore a few years ago, the Giants won b/c of their defense, not b/c of Manning.

Manning was the 18th rated qb in the NFL last year, far behind Rivers who he was traded for b/c of his temper tantrum, & behind such noteable qb's as Brunnel, Losman, Carr, & Kitna.

Manning is hardly a good example to make your case with, unless your case is that a team wins w/ defense, & NOT a good qb.

Wow man you are just killing your credibilty every time you decide to post. Manning played brilliantly down the stretch and was in no way Trent Dilfer in that run. He won SB MVP for gods sakes!

The reason people are making that analogy is because Warner was there at the same time and the SAME THING HAPPENED! Not because of the correlation between Eli and Matt.

The point is QB's take time to develop. There might be Akili Smiths and Tim Couchs out there but judging a guy because of four games in his second year with a new system is just plain ignorance. You think Matt's going to suck because of that snap shot? What about the year before when he played terrific for a rookie? did you forget that? Did you also realize that he was 2-2 in those games? Was that because of our Baltimore like defense too?

Saying he is a definite bust and that Warner should start based on the information at hand is as asinine as me saying hes going to he Hall of Fame. We just don't have enough info to judge other then subjectivity and opinion. And for what he has shown in terms of commitment and preperation so far under Wiz for Year 2 leads us to believe we should give him the benefit of the doubt.