Your top 10 predictions

[BritCard]

As a bit of fun for the draft I was wondering how everyone saw the top 10 playing out.

Here's my thoughts.

1. Jags - Lawrence
2. Jets - Wilson
3. Niners - Fields
4. Cowboys (Trade) - Pitts
5. Bengals - Chase
6. Panthers (Trade) - Sewell
7. Lions - Slater
8. Dolphins (Trade) - Waddle
9. Broncos - Parsons
10. Falcons - Surtain

Niners ain't taking Mac Jones. That nonsense. I mobile QB in Shanahans system would be fire (sadly).

I don't see why the Falcons would take Pitts. They had the 5th most air yards. Hurst had close to 700 yards. There's only 1 ball. I can see Jerry Jones going all out on offense with Dak back and Pitts is going to fire up the fans more than a cornerback, of which there are still a bunch of free agents they can sign.

I think Bengals can get a RT in round 2 and the idea of pairing Chase with Burrows again is too much to resist.

At this point a small Panthers trade up makes sense for the best OT is the draft while the Dolphins can still get Waddle at #8.

Falcons get the position they really need at #10 in Surtain.

 

[Garthshort]

1. Agree about the Bengals.
2. Disagree about Atlanta (and Dallas). With the fourth pick Atlanta is not going to come away with anyone but Pitts or a QB. Depends on what they think about the two QB's left after the first three are gone. They doubt/hope that they won't be picking this high again, and Matt Ryan only has a couple of years left. IMO, they'll go with Pitts. Falcon fans will be happy.
3. You make a good case for Fields to SF, but I think that they will go with Jones. But don't ask me why.

 

[BritCard]

1. Agree about the Bengals.
2. Disagree about Atlanta (and Dallas). With the fourth pick Atlanta is not going to come away with anyone but Pitts or a QB. Depends on what they think about the two QB's left after the first three are gone. They doubt/hope that they won't be picking this high again, and Matt Ryan only has a couple of years left. IMO, they'll go with Pitts. Falcon fans will be happy.
3. You make a good case for Fields to SF, but I think that they will go with Jones. But don't ask me why.

I just don't see the Falcons drafting a QB. Matt Ryan isnt 36 yet and is still playing at a high level. The 4th QB in the draft doesn't make them better and they have a new coach and GM that want to improve right away.

It might not be the Cowboys but I think they trade back. Miami are another option that may move up for Pitts.

 

[Garthshort]

BC, you're probably right about the Falcons not taking the fourth QB, but I'm pretty sure they will take Pitts. JMO.

 

[Solar7]

I just don't see the Falcons drafting a QB. Matt Ryan isnt 36 yet and is still playing at a high level. The 4th QB in the draft doesn't make them better and they have a new coach and GM that want to improve right away.

It might not be the Cowboys but I think they trade back. Miami are another option that may move up for Pitts.

Having a new coach and GM seems like the perfect time to take a young QB. Unless you absolutely crap the bed, your job isn't on the line and you can groom a young guy. Waiting 2-3 years for Ryan to fall off a cliff and then struggling to replace him is a good way to find yourself looking for work.

 

[DVontel]

Having a new coach and GM seems like the perfect time to take a young QB. Unless you absolutely crap the bed, your job isn't on the line and you can groom a young guy. Waiting 2-3 years for Ryan to fall off a cliff and then struggling to replace him is a good way to find yourself looking for work.

Bingo.

 

[BritCard]

Having a new coach and GM seems like the perfect time to take a young QB. Unless you absolutely crap the bed, your job isn't on the line and you can groom a young guy. Waiting 2-3 years for Ryan to fall off a cliff and then struggling to replace him is a good way to find yourself looking for work.

This would make sense if they were picking higher.

What exactly does drafting Lance or Jones achieve? Neither of whom are worth the #4 pick or are anywhere near as good as Ryan.

If they wanted to replace Ryan they would have moved up.

 

[DVontel]

This would make sense if they were picking higher.

What exactly does drafting Lance or Jones achieve? Neither of whom are worth the #4 pick or are anywhere near as good as Ryan.

If they wanted to replace Ryan they would have moved up.

Anddddd you know this, how?

It’s not like Ryan is a top 8 QB anymore & he’s only getting older. Going 2-3 more years with Ryan starting only for him to most likely fall off sooner is idiotic.

 

[az jam]

Here are mine. Pretty boring. Didn't show any trades as i have no idea who will move up especially for a QB.

1. Jags - QB Trevor Lawrence
2. Jets - QB Zach Wilson
3. Niners - QB Mac Jones
4. Falcons - QB Justin Fields
5. Bengels - OT Penei Sewell
6. Dolphins - TE Kyle Pitts
7. Lions - WR DeVonta Smith
8. Panthers - CB Jaycee Horn
9. Broncos - QB - Trey Lance
10. Cowboys - CB Patrick Surtain

 

[Solar7]

This would make sense if they were picking higher.

What exactly does drafting Lance or Jones achieve? Neither of whom are worth the #4 pick or are anywhere near as good as Ryan.

If they wanted to replace Ryan they would have moved up.

Fields is still a possibility too... who I prefer to those two, but I get it. I know QBs play longer these days, but Ryan is pretty long in the tooth, and has two absolutely massive cap years coming up in '22 and '23. Their "out" isn't great (still a $40 million cap hit), but considering they could part ways in 2022, have a young guy in his prime on his rookie deal in 2023, and be flush with cap space by then, it's an appealing proposition for a new GM, I'd say. I mean, how many years does Julio have left at 32? What weapons do they have at RB? Their offensive line is close to in the bottom third but they do have some young guys. Their defense is in the back half.

It just doesn't seem like a team with a pathway to winning now, IMO.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Having a new coach and GM seems like the perfect time to take a young QB. Unless you absolutely crap the bed, your job isn't on the line and you can groom a young guy. Waiting 2-3 years for Ryan to fall off a cliff and then struggling to replace him is a good way to find yourself looking for work.

But only if you like the QB available. If they don’t like him don’t take him just to take a QB.

 

[BritCard]

Anddddd you know this, how?

It’s not like Ryan is a top 8 QB anymore & he’s only getting older. Going 2-3 more years with Ryan starting only for him to most likely fall off sooner is idiotic.

Well first, I know few think they are worth the #4 pick because their ADP's are #8 and #15 and being the #4 QB in the draft means the odds are against them being great based on past draft outcomes.

I'm not saying they will fail, they may buck the odds, but the odds aren't in their favor.

How is Matt Ryan cooked with 4600 yards, 26 TD's and a 93.3 passer rating? He had the most completed passes in the league in '20 and '19. He had the 4th most yards. And he did that without Julio for 7 games. Kyler had just under 4k, 26 TD's and a 94 passer rating for comparison. Ryan is still a top tier QB.

You're not wrong. They do need to replace Ryan eventually. I just don't think that time is now, nor do I think the Falcons do. If they Falcons did feel that they surely would have traded up to make sure they get the QB they want (which is unlikely to be the 4th or 5th ranked QB) rather than hope one falls to them.

 

[BritCard]

Fields is still a possibility too... who I prefer to those two, but I get it. I know QBs play longer these days, but Ryan is pretty long in the tooth, and has two absolutely massive cap years coming up in '22 and '23. Their "out" isn't great (still a $40 million cap hit), but considering they could part ways in 2022, have a young guy in his prime on his rookie deal in 2023, and be flush with cap space by then, it's an appealing proposition for a new GM, I'd say. I mean, how many years does Julio have left at 32? What weapons do they have at RB? Their offensive line is close to in the bottom third but they do have some young guys. Their defense is in the back half.

It just doesn't seem like a team with a pathway to winning now, IMO.

Not in my top 10 he isn't, and my comments are based on that. If Fields is there at #4 they may well take him, I think he's a good QB, but I don't think the Niners are that dumb. In this scenario Lance or Jones are nowhere near upgrading on Ryan in my opinion which is why I didn't go that way.

The rest of your post confirms why they don't go QB. They have no out on Ryan until 2023 and even then it's still $15m dead cap. So any QB they draft is sitting for 2 years for sure. What new HC or new GM want's their first ever draft pick in a new regime to be a guy that doesn't see the field for 2 years while at the same time undermining the guy that's set in stone at starter for those years? It's lose - lose.

 

[Solar7]

Not in my top 10 he isn't, and my comments are based on that. If Fields is there at #4 they may well take him, I think he's a good QB, but I don't think the Niners are that dumb. In this scenario Lance or Jones are nowhere near upgrading on Ryan in my opinion which is why I didn't go that way.

The rest of your post confirms why they don't go QB. They have no out on Ryan until 2023 and even then it's still $15m dead cap. So any QB they draft is sitting for 2 years for sure. What new HC or new GM want's their first ever draft pick in a new regime to be a guy that doesn't see the field for 2 years while at the same time undermining the guy that's set in stone at starter for those years? It's lose - lose.

Well, that's what I'm saying... they have an out at the end of this year. Not a great out, but a better option than trying to make that a playoff roster with Ryan eating nearly $90 million of cap space over two years.

Anyways, I'll respect "your top 10," but until the chips fall on draft day, I'm going to assume most everything is on the table.

 

[BritCard]

Well, that's what I'm saying... they have an out at the end of this year. Not a great out, but a better option than trying to make that a playoff roster with Ryan eating nearly $90 million of cap space over two years.

Anyways, I'll respect "your top 10," but until the chips fall on draft day, I'm going to assume most everything is on the table.

$40m isn't an out Solar. Nobody is taking a $40m hit to move on from a QB. Especially not a new HC and GM with rebuilding plans and especially not with a QB of Ryan's ability that isn't angling to leave.

Not to mention you would be throwing a newbie QB into their first starts with $40m less talent to support them.

We will see on Thursday

 

[DVontel]

Well first, I know few think they are worth the #4 pick because their ADP's are #8 and #15 and being the #4 QB in the draft means the odds are against them being great based on past draft outcomes.

I'm not saying they will fail, they may buck the odds, but the odds aren't in their favor.

How is Matt Ryan cooked with 4600 yards, 26 TD's and a 93.3 passer rating? He had the most completed passes in the league in '20 and '19. He had the 4th most yards. And he did that without Julio for 7 games. Kyler had just under 4k, 26 TD's and a 94 passer rating for comparison. Ryan is still a top tier QB.

You're not wrong. They do need to replace Ryan eventually. I just don't think that time is now, nor do I think the Falcons do. If they Falcons did feel that they surely would have traded up to make sure they get the QB they want (which is unlikely to be the 4th or 5th ranked QB) rather than hope one falls to them.

Well, that’s a weird way to look at it. Why not just look at their traits? What’s translatable? What’s not? What’s coachable? What’s not? With that kind of logic, you would have never drafted Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Dak Prescott when opportunity presented itself.


Man, lol, did anywhere in my post say he was cooked? No, but he’s only getting older & he’s not Tom Brady. I’m actually curious about those stats in which did most accumulate down multiple scores.


When will be the time? When they have to give up a fortune to move up & STILL hope that QB hits? That time? Or the time where they’re picking in the top 4 & have no clue if they’ll ever pick this high again without giving up a ton.

 

[Solar7]

$40m isn't an out Solar. Nobody is taking a $40m hit to move on from a QB. Especially not a new HC and GM with rebuilding plans and especially not with a QB of Ryan's ability that isn't angling to leave.

Not to mention you would be throwing a newbie QB into their first starts with $40m less talent to support them.

We will see on Thursday

Ryan would still be the QB for 2021. A rookie gets a year to learn, they probably struggle for two years given the cap situation, but come 2023 they have a fresh start. It's not like keeping Ryan on the team is going to make them much better since the $40m will still apply either way. You're just ensuring that in 2023 you're not sidled by another $45 million hitting your cap.

 

[GatorAZ]

Lance probably needs 1.5-2 years of development anyway. Ryan is still legit but they don’t have anything close to a SB roster. There’s no guarantee they will be in position to draft a QB this high again.

I’m not on the Pitts-is-sure-thing train btw.

 

[Garthshort]

Having a new coach and GM seems like the perfect time to take a young QB. Unless you absolutely crap the bed, your job isn't on the line and you can groom a young guy. Waiting 2-3 years for Ryan to fall off a cliff and then struggling to replace him is a good way to find yourself looking for work.

Sounds like you're talking about a developmental type QB, and not a guy who might be one of the top 2-3 in the Draft. JMO.

 

[Solar7]

Sounds like you're talking about a developmental type QB, and not a guy who might be one of the top 2-3 in the Draft. JMO.

No, I'm talking about giving the kid one year on the bench and then making him the full starter after parting with the old-but-adequate guy you have in hand, like happened with Patrick Mahomes.

Just because lots of rookie QBs are playing from the starting gun these days doesn't mean they have to.

 

[don7031]

1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence
2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco - Trey Lance
4. Jacksonville - Penei Sewell - trade from Drafttek.com
5. Cincinnati - Ja'marr Chase
6. Miami - Kyle Pitts
7. Washington - Justin Fields - TFT gets fleeced
8. Carolina - Reshawn Slater
9. LA Chargers - Christian Darrisaw
10. Dallas - Patrick Surtain II

 

[BritCard]

No, I'm talking about giving the kid one year on the bench and then making him the full starter after parting with the old-but-adequate guy you have in hand, like happened with Patrick Mahomes.

Just because lots of rookie QBs are playing from the starting gun these days doesn't mean they have to.

Its not one year though. The out next year is $40.5m.

The highest ever dead cap charge is the $33m the Eagles just swallowed to move Wentz who had a garbage season (and the Eagles are disfunctional).

Do you really think the Falcons would take a 40m dead cap hit to move on from one of the most consistent QBs in the league? Lance or Jones would have to be Mahomes+ to force that kind of move.

I'd bet you everything I own that would never happen.

 

[Solar7]

Its not one year though. The out next year is $40.5m.

The highest ever dead cap charge is the $33m the Eagles just swallowed to move Wentz who had a garbage season (and the Eagles are disfunctional).

Do you really think the Falcons would take a 40m dead cap hit to move on from one of the most consistent QBs in the league? Lance or Jones would have to be Mahomes+ to force that kind of move.

I'd bet you everything I own that would never happen.

Man, I am tempted to take that deal, given there's a non-zero chance they take a QB.

It'd be a bold move, but if I'm the Falcons, I'm not sure when I'm getting back to this high in the draft. If I believe in any of the guys left on the board, I'm making the move. At 36 in just weeks, he's very close to that moment where QBs begin to decline when their arm strength isn't top tier or they're not on a superhuman diet like Brady.

I totally get where you're coming from though... the Falcons are in a tough spot. If I were them, I wouldn't be considering myself a 2021 contender, and then what do you do about it? "Build" around Ryan and the hope he's going to play until he's 40? Especially as a new GM/Coach combo, I'd be really concerned about getting to year 3 with nothing to show for it besides a 39 year old QB not under contract.

 

[BritCard]

Man, I am tempted to take that deal, given there's a non-zero chance they take a QB.

It'd be a bold move, but if I'm the Falcons, I'm not sure when I'm getting back to this high in the draft. If I believe in any of the guys left on the board, I'm making the move. At 36 in just weeks, he's very close to that moment where QBs begin to decline when their arm strength isn't top tier or they're not on a superhuman diet like Brady.

I totally get where you're coming from though... the Falcons are in a tough spot. If I were them, I wouldn't be considering myself a 2021 contender, and then what do you do about it? "Build" around Ryan and the hope he's going to play until he's 40? Especially as a new GM/Coach combo, I'd be really concerned about getting to year 3 with nothing to show for it besides a 39 year old QB not under contract.

That's exactly why I don't think the Falcons go QB. This may be the best draft position they have for a while so why didn't they use it to move up relatively cheaply to get the guy they want? I just don't see a scenario where Lance or Jones is "their guy". Sure, it's possible the 49ers make the dumbest trade ever and don't take Fields but I doubt we are that lucky.

Then they would have to be prepared to take a record breaking cap hit to make that change. It's just too many low odds things to make it realistic. Especially with a new GM and HC.

Much better to go all in on Ryan for 2 years, who is still more than good enough to get a team to a superbowl, and if going into year 3 he's cooked you ride that to as low a draft spot as you can and trade up to get the guy to replace him.

 

[Solar7]

That's exactly why I don't think the Falcons go QB. This may be the best draft position they have for a while so why didn't they use it to move up relatively cheaply to get the guy they want? I just don't see a scenario where Lance or Jones is "their guy". Sure, it's possible the 49ers make the dumbest trade ever and don't take Fields but I doubt we are that lucky.

Then they would have to be prepared to take a record breaking cap hit to make that change. It's just too many low odds things to make it realistic. Especially with a new GM and HC.

Much better to go all in on Ryan for 2 years, who is still more than good enough to get a team to a superbowl, and if going into year 3 he's cooked you ride that to as low a draft spot as you can and trade up to get the guy to replace him.

First, how cheap is it, really? This is kinda like the Mahomes/Watson trade discussions I've had with people over the years... just because you're not moving back as far doesn't mean that a small offer from the Falcons is better than a big offer from the 49ers. If I'm Miami, I'm taking two years of first round picks and a 3rd over almost anything the Falcons have to reasonably offer to move up one spot, which if the Trubisky trade holds water, is functionally a 3rd and a 5th to move one.

I guess my point is, the Falcons probably didn't have a hand to play. Just stuck in a hard spot where it's hard to justify any moves.

As far as riding Ryan goes, I don't think he's good enough to get this team to a Super Bowl, and the Falcons have no real way to rebuild that roster fast enough to make them a contender specifically because of his contract. If you're in year 3 and he's cooked, your GM and HC pairing is probably not getting the chance to draft a high QB, not by finishing low and especially not trading future assets a new GM would need. The NFL leash is short, which is why when you have slack from management, you should make the tough decisions early if they can be beneficial to the future.