SoonerLou
ASFN Addict
xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media
NFL Offseason - Our annual review of the passing game continues with our look at 2021 plus/minus stats, where the changing of the guard continues. Drew Brees dominated completion efficiency stats in the 2010s, with only Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan posting even 50% of Brees' plus/minus totals in the decade. Well, Brees and Rivers are gone now, and Ryan is well on the back side of his career, so we're looking for the Drew Brees of the 2020s—the passer who will lead the league in completions over expectation. You might be tempted to look at the top of the DYAR leaderboards and assume that we'll be celebrating Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen now that he's past his rookie struggles, or the last hurrahs of great players such as Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. No, however. If you want to find the current gold standard for accuracy in the 2020s, you have to look down just a little bit, both on the DYAR tables and, you know, generally. There, you'll find Kyler Murray, 2022's plus/minus leader.
Passing plus/minus is a stat we annually track to help provide context to completion percentage. Given the location of a quarterback's passes, it compares his completion percentage in each area to historical baselines. This stat does not consider passes listed as "Thrown Away," "Tipped at Line," "Miscommunication," or "Quarterback Hit in Motion" by Sports Info Solutions charting. Metrics are based on how often a pass is completed based on the pass distance, the distance required for a first down, and whether the ball was thrown to the left, middle, or right side of the field. This is a counting stat, so more attempts are obviously a great thing for the purposes of what we're talking about here. Our Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) numbers may differ from other models around the Internet.
So far, Murray is leading the 2020s. He has taken a step forward each season, seeing his CPOE rise 0.5% to 3.9% to 6.3% as he has developed and grown in Kliff Kingbury's offense. Murray was second behind only Joe Burrow in terms of on-target passes last season, and that's not solely because of a diet of short passes. Murray wasn't just taking the empty calories of ten thousand dumpoffs to James Conner and shooting up the leaderboards; his connections with Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins ranked third and sixth in plus/minus for quarterback-receiver pairs with an average depth of target of at least 10.0 yards. Yes, it looks like Kyler Murray will be the Drew Brees of the 2020s, and we should all be prepared for his upcoming dominance.
Well, no. It's more complicated than that, so let's dig into the data a bit. Here's where last year's quarterbacks stood, ranking all 34 passers who qualified for our leaderboards.
A Tale of Two Murrays
Murray led the league with a plus/minus of 27.4—so he completed 27.4 more passes than an average quarterback with the same types of throws would be expected to make. That is the lowest total to lead the league since we started keeping track of this in 2006, and remember, it's a counting stat—the 17th game should have led to larger numbers. Murray missed three games this season, so it's not a surprise that his total wasn't higher, but it is noteworthy that no one with a full 17-game season could top his total. Murray's 6.3% CPOE was better than 2020's leader, Deshaun Watson at 5.5%, but we're used to seeing the best passer in a given season up in the 7% or 8% range with Brees or Peyton Manning leading the way. Murray didn't win with a dominant season; he had a very good season in a year where no one destroyed the competition. That's not to take anything away from Murray, but it is interesting that we set an all-time low in a counting stat after expanding the schedule.
Murray's year was also very much a tale of two halves. In Weeks 1 to 8, Murray had a +22.1 plus/minus and a 9.4% CPOE; he was on pace not just to lead the league, but to set records as the Cardinals roared out to their 7-0 start. Then Murray hurt his ankle against the Packers and missed three weeks. When he came back, he was not the same player. In Weeks 13 to 18, Murray had a +5.3 plus/minus and a 2.6% CPOE—both respectable, but not league-leading by any stretch of the imagination.
Murray's drop in production lines up with more than his injury. The Cardinals started using fewer four-receiver sets and spread formations. Injuries along the offensive line continued to mount. And Kingsbury's offense, as it has throughout his time as a head coach, became more predictable and easier to cover over the second half of the season. But I do think you can blame a significant chunk of the dropoff on Murray. Being banged up limits the out-of-structure freewheeling that makes him one of the more exciting quarterbacks to watch, but he was also missing easy throws in December, the kind he had no problem making in September. He built up a large enough lead over those first seven weeks that no one had a chance to catch him, but he left the door wide open for the rest of the league to get close.
And while the injuries are obviously a factor here, it's fair to note that Murray saw his CPOE drop in the second half of 2020 as well. Over the last two seasons, Murray's +36.0 plus/minus in Weeks 1 to 9 leads the league, and his 7.4% CPOE trails only Russell Wilson. From Weeks 10 to 18, those stats drop to +10.7 and 2.4% respectively—still good, but more borderline Pro Bowler rather than superstar franchise passer. The second-half swoon of Kingsbury's teams is one of the stranger splits in the NFL at the moment. If they could find a way to keep their success going past Halloween, the Cardinals would be right up there with the top Super Bowl contenders.
2021 Passing Plus/Minus: A Tale of Two Kyler Murrays
The passing plus/minus and CPOE leaderboards for 2021 saw a superstar in Kyler Murray throughout September and October. Could he hold onto that lead through a late-season swoon?
Last edited:
