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There's more than a few reasons why the University of Wisconsin's men's basketball team is comfortably favored In their first-round NCAA Tournament matchup with High Point Thursday, March 19. But there is also a famous March Madness trend that appeared to make the original spread uncomfortable.
The Badgers are still a strong 10- or 10.5-point favorite against a rare 30-win mid-major in part because of their schedule. UW has five victories against teams in the NET rankings (Illinois twice, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue). Eight of their nine quad 1 wins are within the top 30. The Badgers also have a pair of losses outside the top 75 (USC 79, Oregon 109).
Meanwhile, High Point has yet to play a quad 1 game.
More: Wisconsin basketball vs High Point prediction: Our pick for 2026 NCAA bracket first round
However, the Panthers feature one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country. They average over 90 points a game and haven't lost since mid-January, entering the matchup on a 14-game winning streak.
Fans (and bettors) are also well-aware that the Badgers are on the dreaded No. 5 line for favorites. For those who are not familiar, it's the part of the bracket that's most prone to being busted.
The No. 12 seed has a whopping 57 victories over the favored five seed. To put that in perspective, over 35% of the time in the tournament's current format, the No. 12 underdog has won. Wisconsin has lost this game four times.
The Badgers opened as a 12.5-point favorite, but that number dropped considerably and held at 9.5 until Wednesday evening when UW coach Greg Gard announced Nolan Winter was expected to be available to play in the opening round. Winter has missed the last four games with an ankle injury.
The Panthers have gaudy offensive numbers and are one of just six Division 1 teams to win 30 games, but they are 15-16 against the spread this year. In addition, 22 of their 30 victories are against teams ranked 228 in the NET or below. High Point has lost both its quad 2 games. The Badgers are 20-14 this season against the spread and have covered in 14 of their last 20 contests.
High Point has scored 90 points a game this season against a schedule that is ranked 348th in the country. Only teams seeded 16th played lower-ranked opponents. The Badgers averaged 83 points a game and have scored at least 90 points in 11 games. Both teams play at a quick pace with High Point ranked 49th in adjusted tempo in Kenpom and Wisconsin ranked 61st. High Point is also second nationally in turnover rate. All of these variables suggest why the over/under number is at 163.5.
Though the Badgers are listed on the NCAA Tournament S-curve as the 20th-best team in the field, only 14 teams have better odds to win all six games. Virginia, Nebraska, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Texas Tech are all higher on the S-Curve, but have the same or higher odds than Wisconsin to win the title.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin-High Point odds dropped early, then rose after injury news
Continue reading...
The Badgers are still a strong 10- or 10.5-point favorite against a rare 30-win mid-major in part because of their schedule. UW has five victories against teams in the NET rankings (Illinois twice, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue). Eight of their nine quad 1 wins are within the top 30. The Badgers also have a pair of losses outside the top 75 (USC 79, Oregon 109).
Meanwhile, High Point has yet to play a quad 1 game.
More: Wisconsin basketball vs High Point prediction: Our pick for 2026 NCAA bracket first round
However, the Panthers feature one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country. They average over 90 points a game and haven't lost since mid-January, entering the matchup on a 14-game winning streak.
Fans (and bettors) are also well-aware that the Badgers are on the dreaded No. 5 line for favorites. For those who are not familiar, it's the part of the bracket that's most prone to being busted.
The No. 12 seed has a whopping 57 victories over the favored five seed. To put that in perspective, over 35% of the time in the tournament's current format, the No. 12 underdog has won. Wisconsin has lost this game four times.
The Badgers opened as a 12.5-point favorite, but that number dropped considerably and held at 9.5 until Wednesday evening when UW coach Greg Gard announced Nolan Winter was expected to be available to play in the opening round. Winter has missed the last four games with an ankle injury.
Sure it's a 5-12 game, but it makes sense to pick the Badgers
The Panthers have gaudy offensive numbers and are one of just six Division 1 teams to win 30 games, but they are 15-16 against the spread this year. In addition, 22 of their 30 victories are against teams ranked 228 in the NET or below. High Point has lost both its quad 2 games. The Badgers are 20-14 this season against the spread and have covered in 14 of their last 20 contests.
The over will likely be a popular bet
High Point has scored 90 points a game this season against a schedule that is ranked 348th in the country. Only teams seeded 16th played lower-ranked opponents. The Badgers averaged 83 points a game and have scored at least 90 points in 11 games. Both teams play at a quick pace with High Point ranked 49th in adjusted tempo in Kenpom and Wisconsin ranked 61st. High Point is also second nationally in turnover rate. All of these variables suggest why the over/under number is at 163.5.
Wisconsin tied for 15th best odds to win the entire tournament
Though the Badgers are listed on the NCAA Tournament S-curve as the 20th-best team in the field, only 14 teams have better odds to win all six games. Virginia, Nebraska, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Texas Tech are all higher on the S-Curve, but have the same or higher odds than Wisconsin to win the title.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin-High Point odds dropped early, then rose after injury news
Continue reading...
