Why the 31-21 Padres should be very concerned about regression

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Why the 31-21 Padres should be very concerned about regression originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The San Diego Padres are having a good 2026 season so far, with their 31-21 record just 1.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead.

However, it's not all sunshine and rainbows for the Padres right now. Despite the strong record and the dominance of Mason Miller, Padres fans should be worried right now.

As ESPN's Alden Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers highlighted, the Padres are in danger of falling out of the playoff race this year, as they have four clear reasons why regression could be right around the corner this season.

Padres have 4 reasons to be concerned about regression in 2026​

According to Gonzalez, "...their rotation lacks the legitimate front-line arms every contending team must possess."

Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove are both on the injured list, and they're currently relying on Michael King, Randy Vasquez, Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler, and Griffin Canning. That's not a good enough group to be a postseason team.

Another issue, per Gonzalez, is the struggles of Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. All three aren't hitting well enough, and if they can't turn things around, it would not be a surprise if the Padres faltered as the year went along.

Rogers then highlighted two statistics that are not what a contending team wants to have, let alone both at the same time.

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"Ask yourself, how does a team that ranks near last in OPS and outside the top 10 in ERA have such a good record?" Rogers writes. "It's because they're hitting and pitching in the clutch at such a high level that there is bound to be regression."

The Padres are one of the best teams in the clutch this season, and even though Miller is incredible as the closer, it's hard to imagine that the Padres success late in games will continue for the entire season.

If that regression hits for the Padres, a lot of these late-game heroics will come to an end, and it will be hard to rack up wins.

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And while it might be a very simple statistic, the Padres' run differential being just positive six at their 31-21 record doesn't exactly instill much confidence.

The Dodgers, at 33-20, have a positive 106 run differential. The Arizona Diamondbacks are positive seven at a 28-24 record. It's hard to believe a team winning so many close games will continue to do so all year.

Padres fans should be very concerned about the team this season, as even though they have a good record, things could very easily come crashing down if their late-game luck and heroics don't come into play as the year progresses.

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