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After an incredible start to his major league career, it’s been a rough month of June for Boston Red Sox rookie left-handed starter Connelly Early. Saturday night’s start against the Seattle Mariners presents a good opportunity to bounce back after hitting the first bump in the road of his young career.
It has been a rough month of June for the 24-year-old lefty as he has begun to see the regression that his peripheral numbers suggested was on the horizon. In his last three starts, Early has allowed 12 earned runs on 22 hits over 14.1 innings, good for a 7.36 ERA, while walking seven. This is a stretch that includes the worst start of his career, a 4.2 inning performance in which he allowed six earned runs on 11 hits, both career highs, while striking out a season-low three in last Sunday's 6-4 loss to the Texas Rangers.
Early has developed a major home run problem as of late. The 24-year-old has struggled to consistently get ahead in the count, forcing him to attack batters, and they are capitalizing on it in a big way.
After not allowing a home run in each of the first seven starts of his major league career, he has allowed 14 in his last 11 outings, including multiple in four of his last six. Since April 15, Early's home runs per nine innings of 2.03 is the second-highest rate of any qualified pitcher, trailing only ***** Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs.
"Full season is going to be ups-and-downs, so just how I can respond to that is the biggest thing," the 24-year-old told reporters after Sunday's loss.
Early's first opportunity to respond comes on Saturday night in Seattle, where he faces a favorable matchup against a Mariners lineup that struggles mightily when facing lefties.
Seattle is among the worst offenses in baseball when facing left-handed pitching, ranking in the bottom two in the league in batting average (.211, 30th), on-base percentage (.293, 29th), and slugging percentage (.332, 30th). Their 76 runs scored against southpaws are tied for the third-fewest.
In addition to facing one of the worst offenses in the sport against lefties, Early will also have the benefit of taking the mound in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the league. Since 2023, Seattle's T-Mobile Park is tied with Texas' Globe Life Field as the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball, with a park factor of 92. Though it is worth noting that, when it comes to home runs, the park is more towards the middle of the league, with a home run factor of 97, tied for 18th.
After 10 dominant starts, it's clear the league has started to adjust to the young lefty, and it's time for him to take the next step in his development and adjust back.
Early (5-5, 3.81 ERA) will get the start as the Red Sox go for the series win in game two of a three-game set in Seattle. Emerson Hancock (5-3, 3.28 ERA) gets the start for the Mariners. First pitch from T-Mobile Park set for 10:10 p.m. ET.
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It has been a rough month of June for the 24-year-old lefty as he has begun to see the regression that his peripheral numbers suggested was on the horizon. In his last three starts, Early has allowed 12 earned runs on 22 hits over 14.1 innings, good for a 7.36 ERA, while walking seven. This is a stretch that includes the worst start of his career, a 4.2 inning performance in which he allowed six earned runs on 11 hits, both career highs, while striking out a season-low three in last Sunday's 6-4 loss to the Texas Rangers.
Major problems with the long ball
Early has developed a major home run problem as of late. The 24-year-old has struggled to consistently get ahead in the count, forcing him to attack batters, and they are capitalizing on it in a big way.
After not allowing a home run in each of the first seven starts of his major league career, he has allowed 14 in his last 11 outings, including multiple in four of his last six. Since April 15, Early's home runs per nine innings of 2.03 is the second-highest rate of any qualified pitcher, trailing only ***** Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs.
"Full season is going to be ups-and-downs, so just how I can respond to that is the biggest thing," the 24-year-old told reporters after Sunday's loss.
A favorable matchup
Early's first opportunity to respond comes on Saturday night in Seattle, where he faces a favorable matchup against a Mariners lineup that struggles mightily when facing lefties.
Seattle is among the worst offenses in baseball when facing left-handed pitching, ranking in the bottom two in the league in batting average (.211, 30th), on-base percentage (.293, 29th), and slugging percentage (.332, 30th). Their 76 runs scored against southpaws are tied for the third-fewest.
In addition to facing one of the worst offenses in the sport against lefties, Early will also have the benefit of taking the mound in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the league. Since 2023, Seattle's T-Mobile Park is tied with Texas' Globe Life Field as the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball, with a park factor of 92. Though it is worth noting that, when it comes to home runs, the park is more towards the middle of the league, with a home run factor of 97, tied for 18th.
After 10 dominant starts, it's clear the league has started to adjust to the young lefty, and it's time for him to take the next step in his development and adjust back.
Early (5-5, 3.81 ERA) will get the start as the Red Sox go for the series win in game two of a three-game set in Seattle. Emerson Hancock (5-3, 3.28 ERA) gets the start for the Mariners. First pitch from T-Mobile Park set for 10:10 p.m. ET.
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