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It’s July. Welcome. We’re just about over the hump.
Let’s start thinking about Missouri football's games again, shall we?
The long, barren offseason is coming to an end. The Tigers typically report for fall camp on the final weekend of July to begin preseason practices. It’s close.
So, enough of the Brendan Sorsby drama, the Protect College Sports Act (or are they Saving College Sports? I forget.), yet another round of College Football Playoff expansion chatter and all the other storylines that make your eyes glaze over while filling the football void.
As of July 2, Mizzou’s season-opening game against Arkansas Pine-Bluff on Thursday, Sept. 3, at recently remodeled Memorial Stadium is 63 days away.
Can’t come soon enough.
It’s Year 7 of coach Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri tenure. The coach has led his team to 29 wins across the past three seasons, which is as big of a number as in any three-year stretch in program history. That earned him a lucrative contract extension last November.
What are the expectations for the Tigers this season?
The local and national concerns are mostly aligned for Mizzou. The reasons for optimism, too, are generally similar.
ESPN’s SP+ model, spearheaded by Bill Connelly, has Mizzou ranked No. 19 in the nation in the outlet’s most-recent 2026 projections, which places the Tigers at No. 9 in the 16-team SEC. Missouri’s average win total in ESPN’s model is 7.3 wins, which is tied for eighth in the SEC.
Those rankings are compiled through a variety of predictive factors. Roster continuity. Recruiting, both out of high school and the transfer portal. Past results. Coaching changes. And, especially notable this year, teams’ schedules.
That’s a good place to start the 2026 Mizzou conversation, because it’s a good place to begin the 2026 SEC conversation.
The Southeastern Conference is moving to a nine-game league slate this year. The by-product? Georgia and Texas are the only SEC teams that ESPN currently projects to surpass 8.5 wins in the regular season. All 16 SEC teams’ 2026 schedules currently rank among the top-25 hardest in the nation.
Mizzou has the nation's 16th-toughest schedule, per ESPN. That ranks 11th in the SEC.
More: What would it take for Missouri football to stun Georgia in 2026?
More: Does new era at Kentucky spell danger for Missouri football in 2026?
The major sportsbooks have the Tigers’ over/under win total set at 6.5 for 2026. Mizzou has comfortably clipped that mark in each of the past three seasons. Only four SEC teams — Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas and Alabama — have more than Mizzou’s 29 wins over the past three years.
So, why the regression?
The schedule plays a massive role. ESPN projects that Mizzou will average out at 4.7 wins this year. Brad Crawford at CBS Sports projected Mizzou will go 6-6 in 2026, writing that the regression “isn't an indictment of the program as much as it is a reflection of a difficult schedule and shrinking margin for error.”
There are some reasonable roster questions, too.
Obviously, the health of Ahmad Hardy is a massive question mark. He’s widely considered the best returning running back in the sport. Essentially every preview fit to print has the star junior as a preseason first-team All-American after his jaw-dropping 2025 campaign.
The next big question is the defense, which returns several excellent rotational members — like Nicholas Rodriguez and Santana Banner and Marquis Gracial — but has a void of returning starters. All 11 starters, including five draft picks and more undrafted free agents, are being replaced this year.
Then, there’s quarterback Austin Simmons. In three seasons, the Ole Miss transfer has played fewer collegiate snaps than Matt Zollers, Mizzou’s emergency true freshman starter last season after injuries ravaged the room. Is he ready for a full year under the brightest lights as Mizzou’s already annointed starter?
All of those have reasons for optimism. They’re all fairly common questions that you’ll find at most programs, too.
Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon has put together back-to-back top-15 ranked defenses in the’ SP+ model. Simmons may have the highest passing ceiling of any Mizzou QB under Drinkwitz. Like Connelly said for ESPN, “few quarterbacks throw a sexier ball than the lefty.” If it turns out Hardy can’t go, Jamal Roberts has proven himself as a more-than-capable next man up.
The cumulative prognosis projects some regression in the win column. That’s while still being widely considered a team that is at least in consideration for a preseason top-25 ranking.
Such is life, it seems, in the SEC this year. And projections, of course, are just projections.
Can we just get to the games already?
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: What betting odds, national media think of Missouri football in 2026
Continue reading...
Let’s start thinking about Missouri football's games again, shall we?
The long, barren offseason is coming to an end. The Tigers typically report for fall camp on the final weekend of July to begin preseason practices. It’s close.
So, enough of the Brendan Sorsby drama, the Protect College Sports Act (or are they Saving College Sports? I forget.), yet another round of College Football Playoff expansion chatter and all the other storylines that make your eyes glaze over while filling the football void.
As of July 2, Mizzou’s season-opening game against Arkansas Pine-Bluff on Thursday, Sept. 3, at recently remodeled Memorial Stadium is 63 days away.
Can’t come soon enough.
It’s Year 7 of coach Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri tenure. The coach has led his team to 29 wins across the past three seasons, which is as big of a number as in any three-year stretch in program history. That earned him a lucrative contract extension last November.
What are the expectations for the Tigers this season?
The local and national concerns are mostly aligned for Mizzou. The reasons for optimism, too, are generally similar.
ESPN’s SP+ model, spearheaded by Bill Connelly, has Mizzou ranked No. 19 in the nation in the outlet’s most-recent 2026 projections, which places the Tigers at No. 9 in the 16-team SEC. Missouri’s average win total in ESPN’s model is 7.3 wins, which is tied for eighth in the SEC.
Those rankings are compiled through a variety of predictive factors. Roster continuity. Recruiting, both out of high school and the transfer portal. Past results. Coaching changes. And, especially notable this year, teams’ schedules.
That’s a good place to start the 2026 Mizzou conversation, because it’s a good place to begin the 2026 SEC conversation.
The Southeastern Conference is moving to a nine-game league slate this year. The by-product? Georgia and Texas are the only SEC teams that ESPN currently projects to surpass 8.5 wins in the regular season. All 16 SEC teams’ 2026 schedules currently rank among the top-25 hardest in the nation.
Mizzou has the nation's 16th-toughest schedule, per ESPN. That ranks 11th in the SEC.
More: What would it take for Missouri football to stun Georgia in 2026?
More: Does new era at Kentucky spell danger for Missouri football in 2026?
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The major sportsbooks have the Tigers’ over/under win total set at 6.5 for 2026. Mizzou has comfortably clipped that mark in each of the past three seasons. Only four SEC teams — Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas and Alabama — have more than Mizzou’s 29 wins over the past three years.
So, why the regression?
The schedule plays a massive role. ESPN projects that Mizzou will average out at 4.7 wins this year. Brad Crawford at CBS Sports projected Mizzou will go 6-6 in 2026, writing that the regression “isn't an indictment of the program as much as it is a reflection of a difficult schedule and shrinking margin for error.”
There are some reasonable roster questions, too.
Obviously, the health of Ahmad Hardy is a massive question mark. He’s widely considered the best returning running back in the sport. Essentially every preview fit to print has the star junior as a preseason first-team All-American after his jaw-dropping 2025 campaign.
You must be registered for see images attach
The next big question is the defense, which returns several excellent rotational members — like Nicholas Rodriguez and Santana Banner and Marquis Gracial — but has a void of returning starters. All 11 starters, including five draft picks and more undrafted free agents, are being replaced this year.
Then, there’s quarterback Austin Simmons. In three seasons, the Ole Miss transfer has played fewer collegiate snaps than Matt Zollers, Mizzou’s emergency true freshman starter last season after injuries ravaged the room. Is he ready for a full year under the brightest lights as Mizzou’s already annointed starter?
All of those have reasons for optimism. They’re all fairly common questions that you’ll find at most programs, too.
Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon has put together back-to-back top-15 ranked defenses in the’ SP+ model. Simmons may have the highest passing ceiling of any Mizzou QB under Drinkwitz. Like Connelly said for ESPN, “few quarterbacks throw a sexier ball than the lefty.” If it turns out Hardy can’t go, Jamal Roberts has proven himself as a more-than-capable next man up.
The cumulative prognosis projects some regression in the win column. That’s while still being widely considered a team that is at least in consideration for a preseason top-25 ranking.
Such is life, it seems, in the SEC this year. And projections, of course, are just projections.
Can we just get to the games already?
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: What betting odds, national media think of Missouri football in 2026
Continue reading...
