As I write this I’m conscious of the fact I warned the board earlier that 2027 might not turn out to be the great QB year we’re hoping to see. I won’t embarrass the writer (several concurred) below but understand many were saying how great the 2026 QB pool would be, “The 2026 NFL Draft is still quite a way away, but we've got another mock draft with quarterbacks dominating the top picks. The teams that have missed out on a QB in recent NFL Drafts may have a legitimate chance to correct that in the 2026 NFL Draft. There could be another five or six first-round quarterbacks that come off the board. This could be similar to 2024, where six passers went in the first 12 picks.” What may make 2027 special is the promise offered by a surprising number of quarterbacks. Some are sure things, but more are would be stars. 2027, like 2026 could still disappoint, but almost certainly not as badly.
I like to look at ADOT to rate QBs. ADOT: Average depth of target indicates how deep the average pass targeted for this player traveled in the air. Sometimes this can be suppressed somewhat by the coach’s play selections. Sadly, I don’t have an ADOT on most people. PFF used to list them, but I no longer subscribe.
Manning will benefit from a better set of weapons. Also keep in mind 5 of his 7 interceptions happened in the first 5 games. No QB improved more overall as the season progressed. His bowl game rushing yards opened quite a few eyes. He rates number one on leadership. His compact release says NFL ready. He probably has the strongest accurate arm and he can throw guys open. He’s great at maneuvering in the pocket. Manning’s ADOT was an awesome 11.1. The best scouts I talk to have this guy on top this potentially powerful class. He does not throw as well on the run. He’s great, but also could improve his mechanics. Finally he needs to get rid of the ball sooner by working through his progressions more quickly. Nonetheless he’s the betting favorite to go number one.
Moore was some people’s choice for the top 2026 draft ready QB. Several favor him for the 2027 Heisman. He has the best touch when dropping throws into small targets coupled with good placement on long throws. He gets the ball out super quickly. He’s the best user of progressions, doing so rapidly. That helped him compete 72% of his passess. Moore can throw efficiently on the run. Technically the best QB in the draft. Still he unnecessarily rushes short throws leading to inaccuracy. He is not a good runner. His frame presents durability concerns. He can wilt under pressure. He must get tougher.
Sayin throws to the likely number one WR in college. He improved his ADOT from 6 to 9 as last year progressed. For comparison, Bo Nix only managed a 7. Add in a 77% completion percentage and you’ve got a huge year. He’s a student of the game who excels at quickly reading coverages. His release is very quick with good ball placement. Keep in mind he seldom had to deal with win/lose plays. He likely faced less pressure than other QBs on this list, but when he did he moved in the pocket well. OSU plays at a very slow speed. He may have pace adjustment issues. Another 6’1” QB.
Sellers might have the best raw tools in this class. He is almost certainly the top athlete. Sellers moves through progressions too slowly causing him to take too many sacks. Collapsing pockets don’t intimidate him and he’s at top speed amazingly fast when forced to run. At 240 he hits defenders like a power RB. He led FBS QBs in missed tackles. He needs work on mechanics and other fundamentals. He definitely needs to move his feet closer together when passing for better balance and ball placement. However, he’s special on deep throws accuracy. Sellers fashioned a 10.4 ADOT. His shorter throws are improving but still need work. If you wondered why he struggled last season, SC lost its running game. He was the offense. His TD to INT ratio was poor.
Maiava is a Lincoln Riley disciple. He has the quick release and arm strength to get scouts excited. Last season Maiava displayed excellent growth. He throws a fine deep ball. His pocket composure is outstanding and he dramatically increased ball security fumble-wise. He loves to run and doesn’t shy away from contact. Maiava runs great draws. Too many interceptions plagued him, partly because he tends to overthrow short passes. He doesn’t use progressions well as he stays focused on his primary too long. Maiava doesn’t read complex defenses accurately and gets baited into dangerous throws. He just missed a 90 QBR, settling for number 2 behind Mendoza. When he’s good he’s very good, but when he’s bad he can be awful. He’ll be challenged to adapt to a new set of receivers.
Leavitt should benefit from QB guru Lane Kiffin. Leavitt is a true dual threat QB. He is thought to be the best on ball security in this pool. He’s yet another guy who throws a quality deep ball; rated at 60% accuracy. Great ball placement has led to plenty of YAC. Leavitt reads defenses well, anticipating pressure and handling it effectively. In fact his numbers under pressure were outstanding. He excels at deceptive play action. Sometimes he seems to slow his progressions processing, failing to take acceptable early options. He suffered a Lisfranc injury last season and they have a tendency to reoccur. However, he remains a threat as a runner. Leavitt needs to add muscle to his frame to prepare for NFL contact.
Hoover is the leading returning college passer by some indicators. I know I like this guy better than most. There’s a familiar pattern of reading defenses well plus he can move safeties with visually false clues. He’s very decisive and throws as soon as he reads a vulnerability. He’s not Mahomes, but he throws from creative angles and he’s good at adjusting the speed of his throws. Hoover is another passer who throws an accurate deep ball. He’ll be playing for Cignetti who made Mendoza a number one choice. I liked Hoover in 2026, but too many turnovers hurt him, especially late in the season. His biggest deficiency is he’s not much of a runner, but he does get rid of the ball to avoid sacks. Keep an eye on this guy I see him climbing draft boards.
Carr was the only QB with an ADOT over 10 and a 65% completion rate. This reflects his solid mechanics. It leads to his mastering timing routes. He hangs in pocket and will take a hit to make a completion. His game awareness helps him avoid sacks by getting rid of the ball. Carr is decent on deep routes, but not special. Love helped Carr rank number one on third and long productivity. He is very bright and reads coverages well. PHe played under the radar and is likely the most underrated QB in the pool. He is not an effective runner. He had some games where he was totally out of it with no explanation. He doesn’t have to enter the draft. Dallas loves him
Chambliss made several memorable throws in late season games displaying unusual skill growth. He loves to throw deep and he’s good at it. His RPO execution is likely the best in this group. Especially when he gets tired he can become very erratic and short arm throws. He’s not a power runner, but he’s very elusive. He faces a less experienced offensive roster in 2026. He maintains his eyes downfield when he breaks pocket, but he has a slight happy feet tendency. This also causes him to not finish using his progressions. On the plus side he’s never fumbled when running. His upside may be huge based on his learning curve. Another case of returning to school either showed surprising maturity or a fragile ego.
Sorsby was rated the number one QB in the 2026 portal by some evaluators. He may be the most accurate passer in the class when focused. Sorsby can throw the tree with good ball placement at all levels. Throws of 50+ yards are no problem. Leading receivers is a common result of his passes. He fits the Texas Tech “best money can buy” style. A true double threat he’s also a dangerous runner. He showed marked improvement last season in decision making. Sorsby is ultra competitive. He seemed to wear down towards the end of last season, though injury-wise he appears durable. His biggest area that needs improvement is footwork. He can be confused by complex defenses. Finally he can be stubborn about throwing the ball away.
Lagway has an incredibly strong arm. He’ll need it with a corps of questionable receivers. Don’t be shocked if this guy takes a huge step forward. Behind Sellers he’s likely the best athlete in the pool. 20 is very young, but sometimes the switch just flips. Like Mahomes he throws from multiple arm slots. He is also a dangerous runner when leaving the pocket and he can be effective on designed runs. However, he’s careless about ball security. He tends to rush and overthrow short passes. Lagway shows some big game ability but loses focus in less critical games. He’s not a good user of progressions. He regressed last year due to poor coaching IMO.
Mestemaker follows his coach to Oklahoma State. That packaged deal is getting to be a thing. Beginning his career as a walk on means he never takes anything for granted. He is an excellent passer who will benefit from the better program exposure. He led the nation in passing yardage. He’s 6’4”, but needs to add muscle. He’ll have to play with a developing roster. Still his previous receivers were known for hideous drops and he managed to overcome them. That height lets him see the field well. His release needs to be elevated or he’ll get passes knocked down. Very alert, he’s been solid at throwing the ball away rather than taking a sack. He uses progressions well for having limited experience, but can get prompted by ego to pick an early tough throw. Using RPOs seems to come naturally to him. He can run, but prefers to pass first. His throws show good touch at all levels i.e., a great arm. Occasional concentration lapses can cause ugly interceptions. He tends to overthrow boundary passes. Watch this guy closely. He had less of everything and still did more. He might shock the college world. He doesn’t have to declare in 2027. He displays advanced QB maturity considering his history.
Mateer though playing hurt he still completed 64% of his passes with an ADOT of 9.5. However, he insisted on coming back from injury too soon. He’s tough but too stubborn. For old timers, he’s like a more technically skilled version of Joe Kapp. He’s good at spotting coverage mismatches. Receivers like him as he provides good ball placement allowing potential YAC. His passes display good velocity and he can hit windows. Mateer throws effectively on the run. He does a solid job of maneuvering in the pocket and, like Mahomes, he releases the ball at multiple angles. He can be a very dangerous rusher. Mateer breaks tackles and can be especially dangerous in the red zone. His teammates have been impressed by his toughness as a competitor. He needs to slow down and display a less frenetic pocket presence. He’s not special at deep throws. His ego sometimes chooses windows that are too small. He can be reckless ball protection-wise and even with his own body. He’s another 6’1” player.
Brown ran for more than 1000 yds at USF and beat 2 ranked teams to start the season. BTW he also threw for over 3000 yards. Physically imposing, he breaks a lot of tackles, but this does expose him to injury. He’ll take a hit to get a completion. He needs extensive work on his mechanics. This dramatically could improve his accuracy, which was best on deep throws. He tends to loop his arm motion allowing unnecessary sacks and deflections. He hasn’t mastered progressions and often sticks with his primary. He’s had fumble issues. The overall weakness of their roster caught up with USF or he might be better known. Moving to Auburn will give him exposure. He averaged 14 yards per completion.
Mensah was practically invisible playing at Tulane. Duke wasn’t much better though they did play in the conference championship game. He’s another player the portal will highlight. Being very intelligent, he reads coverage as well as any QB on this list. Mensah loves to throw against man coverage. He offers good ball placement, especially when throwing a receiver open. He stays calm in the pocket when facing pressure and knows how to effectively use the pocket. Good ball placement also means he rarely gives the ball away. He’s fun to watch when buying time against the pass rush. Mensah can run effectively if he has to but he’s not a traditional running threat. He does throw exceptionally well on the run. He’ll love his improved weapons in Miami. Mensah needs to build his body; it’s too fragile now. This should also help him improve his throwing velocity and deep passes. He had a problem with fumbles. He could have come out for big bucks. His Duke NIL was a stunning $8 mil and he left.
If the Cards win 5, ties always seem to mean they’re picking 6-9. Getting to 7 wins would mean 11-13 would probably be their slot. With a pool this deep potentially the Cards would have a solid QB option with 5 wins. Even 7 wins likely means a good place from which to trade or maybe a QB. Particularly if the QB group is great, these picks will be golden. If the Cards take Simpson and he’s a miss, they’ll have a future opportunity for correction. If he succeeds they get either a franchise player or an incredible trading piece.
Here’s an interesting ADOT article.
brainyballers.com
I like to look at ADOT to rate QBs. ADOT: Average depth of target indicates how deep the average pass targeted for this player traveled in the air. Sometimes this can be suppressed somewhat by the coach’s play selections. Sadly, I don’t have an ADOT on most people. PFF used to list them, but I no longer subscribe.
Manning will benefit from a better set of weapons. Also keep in mind 5 of his 7 interceptions happened in the first 5 games. No QB improved more overall as the season progressed. His bowl game rushing yards opened quite a few eyes. He rates number one on leadership. His compact release says NFL ready. He probably has the strongest accurate arm and he can throw guys open. He’s great at maneuvering in the pocket. Manning’s ADOT was an awesome 11.1. The best scouts I talk to have this guy on top this potentially powerful class. He does not throw as well on the run. He’s great, but also could improve his mechanics. Finally he needs to get rid of the ball sooner by working through his progressions more quickly. Nonetheless he’s the betting favorite to go number one.
Moore was some people’s choice for the top 2026 draft ready QB. Several favor him for the 2027 Heisman. He has the best touch when dropping throws into small targets coupled with good placement on long throws. He gets the ball out super quickly. He’s the best user of progressions, doing so rapidly. That helped him compete 72% of his passess. Moore can throw efficiently on the run. Technically the best QB in the draft. Still he unnecessarily rushes short throws leading to inaccuracy. He is not a good runner. His frame presents durability concerns. He can wilt under pressure. He must get tougher.
Sayin throws to the likely number one WR in college. He improved his ADOT from 6 to 9 as last year progressed. For comparison, Bo Nix only managed a 7. Add in a 77% completion percentage and you’ve got a huge year. He’s a student of the game who excels at quickly reading coverages. His release is very quick with good ball placement. Keep in mind he seldom had to deal with win/lose plays. He likely faced less pressure than other QBs on this list, but when he did he moved in the pocket well. OSU plays at a very slow speed. He may have pace adjustment issues. Another 6’1” QB.
Sellers might have the best raw tools in this class. He is almost certainly the top athlete. Sellers moves through progressions too slowly causing him to take too many sacks. Collapsing pockets don’t intimidate him and he’s at top speed amazingly fast when forced to run. At 240 he hits defenders like a power RB. He led FBS QBs in missed tackles. He needs work on mechanics and other fundamentals. He definitely needs to move his feet closer together when passing for better balance and ball placement. However, he’s special on deep throws accuracy. Sellers fashioned a 10.4 ADOT. His shorter throws are improving but still need work. If you wondered why he struggled last season, SC lost its running game. He was the offense. His TD to INT ratio was poor.
Maiava is a Lincoln Riley disciple. He has the quick release and arm strength to get scouts excited. Last season Maiava displayed excellent growth. He throws a fine deep ball. His pocket composure is outstanding and he dramatically increased ball security fumble-wise. He loves to run and doesn’t shy away from contact. Maiava runs great draws. Too many interceptions plagued him, partly because he tends to overthrow short passes. He doesn’t use progressions well as he stays focused on his primary too long. Maiava doesn’t read complex defenses accurately and gets baited into dangerous throws. He just missed a 90 QBR, settling for number 2 behind Mendoza. When he’s good he’s very good, but when he’s bad he can be awful. He’ll be challenged to adapt to a new set of receivers.
Leavitt should benefit from QB guru Lane Kiffin. Leavitt is a true dual threat QB. He is thought to be the best on ball security in this pool. He’s yet another guy who throws a quality deep ball; rated at 60% accuracy. Great ball placement has led to plenty of YAC. Leavitt reads defenses well, anticipating pressure and handling it effectively. In fact his numbers under pressure were outstanding. He excels at deceptive play action. Sometimes he seems to slow his progressions processing, failing to take acceptable early options. He suffered a Lisfranc injury last season and they have a tendency to reoccur. However, he remains a threat as a runner. Leavitt needs to add muscle to his frame to prepare for NFL contact.
Hoover is the leading returning college passer by some indicators. I know I like this guy better than most. There’s a familiar pattern of reading defenses well plus he can move safeties with visually false clues. He’s very decisive and throws as soon as he reads a vulnerability. He’s not Mahomes, but he throws from creative angles and he’s good at adjusting the speed of his throws. Hoover is another passer who throws an accurate deep ball. He’ll be playing for Cignetti who made Mendoza a number one choice. I liked Hoover in 2026, but too many turnovers hurt him, especially late in the season. His biggest deficiency is he’s not much of a runner, but he does get rid of the ball to avoid sacks. Keep an eye on this guy I see him climbing draft boards.
Carr was the only QB with an ADOT over 10 and a 65% completion rate. This reflects his solid mechanics. It leads to his mastering timing routes. He hangs in pocket and will take a hit to make a completion. His game awareness helps him avoid sacks by getting rid of the ball. Carr is decent on deep routes, but not special. Love helped Carr rank number one on third and long productivity. He is very bright and reads coverages well. PHe played under the radar and is likely the most underrated QB in the pool. He is not an effective runner. He had some games where he was totally out of it with no explanation. He doesn’t have to enter the draft. Dallas loves him
Chambliss made several memorable throws in late season games displaying unusual skill growth. He loves to throw deep and he’s good at it. His RPO execution is likely the best in this group. Especially when he gets tired he can become very erratic and short arm throws. He’s not a power runner, but he’s very elusive. He faces a less experienced offensive roster in 2026. He maintains his eyes downfield when he breaks pocket, but he has a slight happy feet tendency. This also causes him to not finish using his progressions. On the plus side he’s never fumbled when running. His upside may be huge based on his learning curve. Another case of returning to school either showed surprising maturity or a fragile ego.
Sorsby was rated the number one QB in the 2026 portal by some evaluators. He may be the most accurate passer in the class when focused. Sorsby can throw the tree with good ball placement at all levels. Throws of 50+ yards are no problem. Leading receivers is a common result of his passes. He fits the Texas Tech “best money can buy” style. A true double threat he’s also a dangerous runner. He showed marked improvement last season in decision making. Sorsby is ultra competitive. He seemed to wear down towards the end of last season, though injury-wise he appears durable. His biggest area that needs improvement is footwork. He can be confused by complex defenses. Finally he can be stubborn about throwing the ball away.
Lagway has an incredibly strong arm. He’ll need it with a corps of questionable receivers. Don’t be shocked if this guy takes a huge step forward. Behind Sellers he’s likely the best athlete in the pool. 20 is very young, but sometimes the switch just flips. Like Mahomes he throws from multiple arm slots. He is also a dangerous runner when leaving the pocket and he can be effective on designed runs. However, he’s careless about ball security. He tends to rush and overthrow short passes. Lagway shows some big game ability but loses focus in less critical games. He’s not a good user of progressions. He regressed last year due to poor coaching IMO.
Mestemaker follows his coach to Oklahoma State. That packaged deal is getting to be a thing. Beginning his career as a walk on means he never takes anything for granted. He is an excellent passer who will benefit from the better program exposure. He led the nation in passing yardage. He’s 6’4”, but needs to add muscle. He’ll have to play with a developing roster. Still his previous receivers were known for hideous drops and he managed to overcome them. That height lets him see the field well. His release needs to be elevated or he’ll get passes knocked down. Very alert, he’s been solid at throwing the ball away rather than taking a sack. He uses progressions well for having limited experience, but can get prompted by ego to pick an early tough throw. Using RPOs seems to come naturally to him. He can run, but prefers to pass first. His throws show good touch at all levels i.e., a great arm. Occasional concentration lapses can cause ugly interceptions. He tends to overthrow boundary passes. Watch this guy closely. He had less of everything and still did more. He might shock the college world. He doesn’t have to declare in 2027. He displays advanced QB maturity considering his history.
Mateer though playing hurt he still completed 64% of his passes with an ADOT of 9.5. However, he insisted on coming back from injury too soon. He’s tough but too stubborn. For old timers, he’s like a more technically skilled version of Joe Kapp. He’s good at spotting coverage mismatches. Receivers like him as he provides good ball placement allowing potential YAC. His passes display good velocity and he can hit windows. Mateer throws effectively on the run. He does a solid job of maneuvering in the pocket and, like Mahomes, he releases the ball at multiple angles. He can be a very dangerous rusher. Mateer breaks tackles and can be especially dangerous in the red zone. His teammates have been impressed by his toughness as a competitor. He needs to slow down and display a less frenetic pocket presence. He’s not special at deep throws. His ego sometimes chooses windows that are too small. He can be reckless ball protection-wise and even with his own body. He’s another 6’1” player.
Brown ran for more than 1000 yds at USF and beat 2 ranked teams to start the season. BTW he also threw for over 3000 yards. Physically imposing, he breaks a lot of tackles, but this does expose him to injury. He’ll take a hit to get a completion. He needs extensive work on his mechanics. This dramatically could improve his accuracy, which was best on deep throws. He tends to loop his arm motion allowing unnecessary sacks and deflections. He hasn’t mastered progressions and often sticks with his primary. He’s had fumble issues. The overall weakness of their roster caught up with USF or he might be better known. Moving to Auburn will give him exposure. He averaged 14 yards per completion.
Mensah was practically invisible playing at Tulane. Duke wasn’t much better though they did play in the conference championship game. He’s another player the portal will highlight. Being very intelligent, he reads coverage as well as any QB on this list. Mensah loves to throw against man coverage. He offers good ball placement, especially when throwing a receiver open. He stays calm in the pocket when facing pressure and knows how to effectively use the pocket. Good ball placement also means he rarely gives the ball away. He’s fun to watch when buying time against the pass rush. Mensah can run effectively if he has to but he’s not a traditional running threat. He does throw exceptionally well on the run. He’ll love his improved weapons in Miami. Mensah needs to build his body; it’s too fragile now. This should also help him improve his throwing velocity and deep passes. He had a problem with fumbles. He could have come out for big bucks. His Duke NIL was a stunning $8 mil and he left.
If the Cards win 5, ties always seem to mean they’re picking 6-9. Getting to 7 wins would mean 11-13 would probably be their slot. With a pool this deep potentially the Cards would have a solid QB option with 5 wins. Even 7 wins likely means a good place from which to trade or maybe a QB. Particularly if the QB group is great, these picks will be golden. If the Cards take Simpson and he’s a miss, they’ll have a future opportunity for correction. If he succeeds they get either a franchise player or an incredible trading piece.
Here’s an interesting ADOT article.
Can College ADOT Predict Quarterbacks' NFL Success?
Discover the impact of a quarterback's college ADOT on their NFL success. We analyzed data from top NFL finishers to find out.
brainyballers.com
