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ATLANTA, GEORGIA - MARCH 31: Mauricio Pochettino looks on prior to the international friendly match between United States and Portugal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on March 31, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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When the United State men’s national team received its World Cup draw in December, most – but not all – of the reactions were positive. That probably owed more to comparison with past World Cup groups rather than an accurate comparison of what a co-host should hope for in an expanded 48-team field.
Now that we know the final six qualifiers after the completion of UEFA and interconfederation playoffs this week, the actual picture is very different according to the latest FIFA World Rankings.
While FIFA’s system isn’t perfect, it’s far more credible than it once was and has few truly obvious miscalculations. And if you use it to measure World Cup group quality, the only conclusion you can reach is that the United States has the toughest draw of any team that received a Pot 1 seeding during the draw. The big change – in addition to some misunderstanding about what the USMNT should have been hoping for – is the emergence of Turkiye as victors in the UEFA Path C playoff, a team of considerably better quality than the other three in the pathway.
With Turkiye in the fold, the average world ranking (rounding to the nearest whole number) in Group D is 25th, tied for second-highest in the tournament. The median world ranking is 26th, tied for third-highest. But that data includes the Americans’ current position of 16th, which is the second-lowest of Pot 1 teams ahead of only co-host Canada. (Traditionally, World Cup host nations receive a Pot 1 seed regardless of rank)
When you look at the Americans’ schedule relative to other Pot 1 teams, theirs is easily the most challenging in totality, with an average opponent world ranking of 30th and a median opponent world ranking of 27th (Australia). Both of those numbers are the highest that any Pot 1 side will face. That latter number is particularly important because it reflects the quality of the side that would be most likely to push the United States out of the second automatic spot up for grabs in the knockout phase. (Eight out of 12 third-place finishers will also advance.)
The only place the Americans catch a break is the relative quality of their highest-ranked opponent, which is ninth compared to the other 11 Pot 1 teams. But in the newer, more-forgiving 48-team World Cup, that probably is less of an advantage than it would be to have a true minnow in the group, against which a comfortable victory would be predicted. Group D is the only group without a single team outside of the World top 40. Five groups have multiple sides outside that threshold, presumably making far easier work for Pot 1 and 2 teams.
Here’s a look at how the FIFA World Rankings data of all 12 groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup compare. World rankings are listed next to countries.
* connotes Pot 1 team
Group A
Mexico* (15), South Korea (25), Czechia (41), South Africa (60)
Group average rank: 35 (Tied 7th)
Group median rank: 33 (10th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 25 (12th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 41 (8th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 42 (7th)
Group B
Switzerland (19), Canada* (30), Qatar (55), Bosnia and Herzegovina (65)
Group average rank: 42 (12th)
Group median rank: 43 (12th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 19 (7th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 55 (11th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 46 (Tied 10th)
Group C
Brazil* (6), Morocco (8), Scotland (43), Haiti (83)
Group average rank: 35 (Tied 7th)
Group median rank: 29 (Tied 7th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 8 (1st)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 43 (9th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 45 (Tied 8th)
Group D
USA* (16), Turkiye (22), Australia (27), Paraguay (40)
Group average rank: 26 (Tied 2nd)
Group median rank: 25 (Tied 3rd)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 22 (9th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 27 (1st)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 30 (1st)
Group E
Germany* (10), Ecuador (23), Ivory Coast (34), Curacao (82)
Group average rank: 37 (Tied 10th)
Group median rank: 29 (Tied 7th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 23 (10th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 34 (6th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 46 (Tied 10th)
Group F
Netherlands* (7), Japan (18), Sweden (38), Tunisia (44)
Group average rank: 27 (4th)
Group median rank: 28 (6th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 18 (6th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 38 (7th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 33 (2nd)
Group G
Belgium* (9), Iran (21), Egypt (29), New Zealand (85)
Group average rank: 36 (9th)
Group median rank: 25 (Tied 3rd)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 21 (8th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 29 (3rd)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 45 (Tied 8th)
Group H
Spain* (2), Uruguay (17), Saudi Arabia (61), Cabo Verde (69)
Group average rank: 37 (Tied 10th)
Group median rank: 39 (11th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 17 (5th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 61 (12th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 49 (12th)
Group I
France* (1), Senegal (14), Norway (34), Iraq (57)
Group average rank: 26 (Tied 2nd)
Group median rank: 23 (2nd)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 14 (4th)
Pot 1 median opponent rank: 31 (4th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 34 (3rd)
Group J
Argentina* (3), Austria (24), Algeria (28), Jordan (63)
Group average rank: 30 (5th)
Group median rank: 26 (5th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 24 (11th)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 28 (2nd)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 38 (5th)
Group K
Portugal* (5), Colombia (13), Congo (46), Uzbekistan (50)
Group average rank: 24 (1st)
Group median rank: 30 (9th)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 13 (3rd)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 46 (10th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 36 (4th)
Group L
England* (4), Croatia (11), Panama (33), Ghana (74)
Group average rank: 31 (6th)
Group median rank: 22 (1st)
Pot 1 team’s top opponent rank: 11 (2nd)
Pot 1 team’s median opponent rank: 33 (5th)
Pot 1 team’s average opponent rank: 41 (6th)
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
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