- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,264,951
- Reaction score
- 59
Fantasy football draft season rewards the manager who knows when a familiar name has stopped paying off. These six NFL tight ends all sit higher on the expert consensus board than they do on mine. Your squad can typically survive a TE bust, but let’s avoid them if we can, right?
Aaliyah said age ain’t nothing but a number. Agree to disagree! A few on this list are aged past their prime, some are stuck in crowded target rooms, and some just do not score enough to matter.
You might believe last year’s floor will hold. I’d argue the floor is cracking. Let’s break down these six fantasy football tight end busts to avoid.
More fantasy football busts: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) reacts during the second half against the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Emphasis on has been. That’s probably not fair. I’m not sure what to make of the Chiefs’ decision to essentially punt on offense since allowing Tyreek Hill to move on a few years ago.
Kelce caught 76 passes for 851 yards and five touchdowns in 2025, his lowest yards-per-game mark since 2015. He enters his age-37 season on a fourth straight year of declining weekly averages. His production is also lumpy, with 34% of his fantasy points coming in just three games. Leaving him at 9.0 PPR points across the other 14.
The Chiefs finished 6-11, the worst record of the Patrick Mahomes era, and dropped to 15th in points per game. Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy now anchor the target share. It also seems that by bringing in RB Kenneth Walker III, the Chiefs might want to run the ball more.
We had a good thing, Travis. We really did. But that’s gone now. Looking in your eyes. I see a memory. I never realized how happy you made me. Oh Kelce. Well, you came, and you gave without taking. But I sent you away, oh Kelce.
My tight end rankings slot him at TE12 under the consensus TE9.
Andrews caught 48 passes for 422 yards and five touchdowns in 2025, career lows in yards per catch (8.8) and yards per target (6.0). He averaged 4.1 targets per game over the past two seasons and has posted three straight years under 60 catches and 700 yards.
He enters his age-31 season with 121 games of mileage. Isaiah Likely leaving for the Giants clears target room, but Andrews works with an entirely new Baltimore coaching staff under coordinator Declan Doyle for the first time in his career. Lamar Jackson also spreads the ball around, which caps the ceiling. So if you get frustrated and remove Andrews from your starting line, that’s probably the week he overperforms.
My TE rankings slot him at TE18, under the consensus TE14.
Houston Texans Dalton Schultz (86) makes my list of this year’s TE busts because he won’t match last year’s career year. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Schultz set career highs with 82 catches on 106 targets in 2025, so the volume is not the problem. The scoring is. He managed just three touchdowns and has five over the past two seasons after posting 22 across the prior three.
His production leaned on the absence of Cade Stover, who missed eight games. Now coordinator Nick Caley says he wants a bigger role for Houston’s tight ends as a group, with Stover healthy and double and triple tight end sets on the way.
Schultz also has never averaged more than 7.8 yards per target in eight seasons. My fantasy football TE rankings put him at TE25 under the consensus TE21.
Okonkwo set career highs with 56 catches for 560 yards on 79 targets in 2025, then signed a three-year deal with Washington.
The optimistic case involves Jayden Daniels, who has thrown nine touchdown passes to tight ends in 24 career games. The problem is Okonkwo has never scored more than three touchdowns in a season and managed just a 14.9% target share last year despite Tennessee’s thin receiver group.
The Commanders look like too much of a wild card on offense with a committee backfield. Targets will likely be tough to come by between Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs operating as options 1A and 1B.
Okonkwo also ceded snaps down the stretch to rookie Gunnar Helm, suggesting the Titans let him move on for a reason. My TE rankings have him at TE21, a few spots lower than the consensus TE17.
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange (85) is congratulated by quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium.
Strange set career highs with 46 catches for 540 yards and three touchdowns in 2025, though he played just 12 games. The volume ceiling is the issue. He had one game over 61 yards all year and none with more than seven targets.
Now the target competition thickens with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and Travis Hunter all in the mix under coordinator Liam Coen.
Jacksonville also spent second and fifth-round picks on rookie tight ends Nate Boerkircher and Tanner Koziol, pointing to more multi-tight-end sets that split snaps. My fantasy football TE rankings put him at TE22 under the consensus TE18.
Henry is coming off the best year of his career, catching 60 of 87 targets for 768 yards and seven touchdowns as the TE9 in 2025. That is the problem. His production is unlikely to repeat because New England reshaped the receiver room around Drake Maye.
The Patriots traded for A.J. Brown, who is expected to command more looks than the departed Stefon Diggs and his 19.7 percent target share, and signed Romeo Doubs to a deal with $39 million guaranteed. Draft Sharks projects Henry’s target share dropping to 15 percent, down two points from last season. New England also spent a third-round pick on rookie tight end Eli Raridon.
Henry enters his age-32 season priced for a career year, only for the roster to make it harder to hit. My tight end rankings have him at TE20 under the consensus TE19.
Continue reading...
Aaliyah said age ain’t nothing but a number. Agree to disagree! A few on this list are aged past their prime, some are stuck in crowded target rooms, and some just do not score enough to matter.
You might believe last year’s floor will hold. I’d argue the floor is cracking. Let’s break down these six fantasy football tight end busts to avoid.
More fantasy football busts: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers
Travis Kelce has been fading in Kansas City
You must be registered for see images attach
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) reacts during the second half against the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Emphasis on has been. That’s probably not fair. I’m not sure what to make of the Chiefs’ decision to essentially punt on offense since allowing Tyreek Hill to move on a few years ago.
Kelce caught 76 passes for 851 yards and five touchdowns in 2025, his lowest yards-per-game mark since 2015. He enters his age-37 season on a fourth straight year of declining weekly averages. His production is also lumpy, with 34% of his fantasy points coming in just three games. Leaving him at 9.0 PPR points across the other 14.
The Chiefs finished 6-11, the worst record of the Patrick Mahomes era, and dropped to 15th in points per game. Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy now anchor the target share. It also seems that by bringing in RB Kenneth Walker III, the Chiefs might want to run the ball more.
We had a good thing, Travis. We really did. But that’s gone now. Looking in your eyes. I see a memory. I never realized how happy you made me. Oh Kelce. Well, you came, and you gave without taking. But I sent you away, oh Kelce.
My tight end rankings slot him at TE12 under the consensus TE9.
Mark Andrews is declining in Baltimore
Andrews caught 48 passes for 422 yards and five touchdowns in 2025, career lows in yards per catch (8.8) and yards per target (6.0). He averaged 4.1 targets per game over the past two seasons and has posted three straight years under 60 catches and 700 yards.
He enters his age-31 season with 121 games of mileage. Isaiah Likely leaving for the Giants clears target room, but Andrews works with an entirely new Baltimore coaching staff under coordinator Declan Doyle for the first time in his career. Lamar Jackson also spreads the ball around, which caps the ceiling. So if you get frustrated and remove Andrews from your starting line, that’s probably the week he overperforms.
My TE rankings slot him at TE18, under the consensus TE14.
Dalton Schultz is a low-ceiling option in Houston
You must be registered for see images attach
Houston Texans Dalton Schultz (86) makes my list of this year’s TE busts because he won’t match last year’s career year. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Schultz set career highs with 82 catches on 106 targets in 2025, so the volume is not the problem. The scoring is. He managed just three touchdowns and has five over the past two seasons after posting 22 across the prior three.
His production leaned on the absence of Cade Stover, who missed eight games. Now coordinator Nick Caley says he wants a bigger role for Houston’s tight ends as a group, with Stover healthy and double and triple tight end sets on the way.
Schultz also has never averaged more than 7.8 yards per target in eight seasons. My fantasy football TE rankings put him at TE25 under the consensus TE21.
Chig Okonkwo and the Commanders target question
Okonkwo set career highs with 56 catches for 560 yards on 79 targets in 2025, then signed a three-year deal with Washington.
The optimistic case involves Jayden Daniels, who has thrown nine touchdown passes to tight ends in 24 career games. The problem is Okonkwo has never scored more than three touchdowns in a season and managed just a 14.9% target share last year despite Tennessee’s thin receiver group.
The Commanders look like too much of a wild card on offense with a committee backfield. Targets will likely be tough to come by between Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs operating as options 1A and 1B.
Okonkwo also ceded snaps down the stretch to rookie Gunnar Helm, suggesting the Titans let him move on for a reason. My TE rankings have him at TE21, a few spots lower than the consensus TE17.
Brenton Strange is buried in a crowded Jacksonville room
You must be registered for see images attach
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange (85) is congratulated by quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium.
Strange set career highs with 46 catches for 540 yards and three touchdowns in 2025, though he played just 12 games. The volume ceiling is the issue. He had one game over 61 yards all year and none with more than seven targets.
Now the target competition thickens with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and Travis Hunter all in the mix under coordinator Liam Coen.
Jacksonville also spent second and fifth-round picks on rookie tight ends Nate Boerkircher and Tanner Koziol, pointing to more multi-tight-end sets that split snaps. My fantasy football TE rankings put him at TE22 under the consensus TE18.
Hunter Henry offers no ceiling in New England
Henry is coming off the best year of his career, catching 60 of 87 targets for 768 yards and seven touchdowns as the TE9 in 2025. That is the problem. His production is unlikely to repeat because New England reshaped the receiver room around Drake Maye.
The Patriots traded for A.J. Brown, who is expected to command more looks than the departed Stefon Diggs and his 19.7 percent target share, and signed Romeo Doubs to a deal with $39 million guaranteed. Draft Sharks projects Henry’s target share dropping to 15 percent, down two points from last season. New England also spent a third-round pick on rookie tight end Eli Raridon.
Henry enters his age-32 season priced for a career year, only for the roster to make it harder to hit. My tight end rankings have him at TE20 under the consensus TE19.
Continue reading...
