- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,258,373
- Reaction score
- 59
You must be registered for see images attach
Football is simple at its very core, but it is a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight other fielders by timing his swing just right.
In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their goal. Even as great and elusive as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.
Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only 70% accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is more of a tiebreaker than anything else, although it has been very successful in helping me (and others) avoid potential busts over the years.
Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for roughly 20 years. While some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.
The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry projections. As always, the matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.) by adjusting the weights I place in the formula.
For anyone unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:
Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e., from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform at least slightly worse that week.
Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.
White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.
Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.
Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for 0.5 PPR, superflex and standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. These boards will be updated regularly for the remainder of the preseason.
Notes: Each Big Board will be appear on Google Sheets. Player names in red have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).
Click here to download my 2026 PPR Big Board.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Top 250 PPR Big Board
Continue reading...