The numbers say Sunday will be exciting at the Travelers Championship

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CROMWELL, Conn. — If numbers could talk, the analytics that tell the story of Sundays at the Travelers Championship would probably say this: Buckle up, because even-par 70 won't be good enough today.

Scottie Scheffler will start the final round at TPC River Highlands at 19 under, a shot behind Viktor Hovland, who shot 65 on Saturday to reach 20 under. But over the last three years at here, Scheffler has shot 65 in the final round each time. Not once. Not twice. Three straight 65s.

Hovland’s history at the Travelers is more complicated but also encouraging of the Norwegian fans who cheered him on yesterday. Early in his career here, he did not exactly turn Sundays in Cromwell into stunning performances, carding a 73 in 2019 in his professional debut and 68 in 2020. Around here, those scores will get you lapped.

However, the last two times he completed a final round here, Hovland looked much more comfortable and shot 66 in 2023 and 65 in 2024.

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The field averages add some context to Scheffler and Hovland's scores because final rounds at the Travelers have often dipped into the high 60s every year since 2020, which means it's possible that someone could sprint from behind and catch both Hovland and Scheffler if neither goes low. Patrick Cantlay and Akshay Bhatia will be playing ahead of the final pair and each starts Sunday at -15, five shots off Hovland's lead. Shane Lowry, Wyndhman Clark, Ben Griffin, Matt Fitzpatrick and Eric Cole start the day at 13 under, which is likely too far back to chase down the leaders, but this course has yielded the PGA Tour's only 58, so anything could happen.

Still, this feels like Hovland versus Scheffler. The graph does not predict the winner, but It does suggest a 65 or 66 will likely be needed to win.

David Dusek is a senior writer at Golfweek covering equipment.

This article originally appeared on Golfweek: The numbers say Sunday will be exciting at the Travelers Championship


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