The Market 2022-2023-2024

[BigRedRage]

SNAP killin it

 

[dscher]

SNAP killin it

If you bought back in October you'd still need another roughly 400 percent give or take to break even.....Nuts!

 

[elindholm]

SNAP killin it

That's crazy. Surely increases of 50% or more after hours have to be very rare, right?

 

[dscher]

Facebook's $232 billion fall sets record for largest one-day value drop in stock market history

Facebook's parent company Meta set a new record for the largest one-day valuation drop in stock market history.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Folster]

Facebook's $232 billion fall sets record for largest one-day value drop in stock market history

Facebook's parent company Meta set a new record for the largest one-day valuation drop in stock market history.

www.cnbc.com

Joe Rogan effect.

 

[Finito]

I still know people who use FB as they have built a big marketplace and have intertwined themselves with business outreach and a lot of hobby/special interest clubs.

Yeah... old people.

FB is a joke to the youth. And youth drive stuff like that. Rebranding with a new name isn’t gonna help

It’s going to be the next MySpace unless they really pivot.

 

[Finito]

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It’s not about “meme stocks” even though I hate that term

Oh it’s all fake and retail has no effect on the market what’s so ever? Shocking.

90/95% of your trades go through when a MM decides. The game is rigged. However these new transparency rules that are going to go into effect are going to turn this whole thing upside down

But a rule is only good if it’s enforced

 

[dscher]

Yeah... old people.

FB is a joke to the youth. And youth drive stuff like that. Rebranding with a new name isn’t gonna help

It’s going to be the next MySpace unless they really pivot.

The pivot is the metaverse. Although I'm no huge Facebook fan, you gotta give credit to em for recognizing the writing on the wall that their platform was dead and/or dying and moving on....

 

[Folster]

Yeah... old people.

FB is a joke to the youth. And youth drive stuff like that. Rebranding with a new name isn’t gonna help

It’s going to be the next MySpace unless they really pivot.

The pivot is the metaverse. Although I'm no huge Facebook fan, you gotta give credit to em for recognizing the writing on the wall that their platform was dead and/or dying and moving on....

FB was late to mobile and a lot of people wrote them off. Between their platforms they have 1.95 billion daily active users and 3.59 billion monthly active users. They've rolled out Reels on Instagram to compete with Tiktok.

 

[Finito]

The pivot is the metaverse. Although I'm no huge Facebook fan, you gotta give credit to em for recognizing the writing on the wall that their platform was dead and/or dying and moving on....

But did they make that move to late? It’s looking like it.

 

[Finito]

FB was late to mobile and a lot of people wrote them off. Between their platforms they have 1.95 billion daily active users and 3.59 billion monthly active users. They've rolled out Reels on Instagram to compete with Tiktok.

IG is the only thing keeping them relevant

 

[BigRedRage]

That's crazy. Surely increases of 50% or more after hours have to be very rare, right?

I've only seen it with meme stonks

 

[BigRedRage]

The pivot is the metaverse. Although I'm no huge Facebook fan, you gotta give credit to em for recognizing the writing on the wall that their platform was dead and/or dying and moving on....

Yeah I don't think changing to a video game centric model is the solution at all.

And I'm a lover of games.

 

[Folster]

IG is the only thing keeping them relevant

And their $27 billion in free cash flow. For comparison. SNAP posted less than $4 billion in revenue and less than a quarter billion in free cash flow.

FB is a money printer and will reinvest that into the company as well as buy back stock while it's cheaper, making the shareholder's slice bigger.

 

[Finito]

And their $27 billion in free cash flow. For comparison. SNAP posted less than $4 billion in revenue and less than a quarter billion in free cash flow.

FB is a money printer and will reinvest that into the company as well as buy back stock while it's cheaper, making the shareholder's slice bigger.

Cool story bro.

Honestly your sounding just as out of touch. So your long on FB? See a bright future huh

 

[Folster]

Cool story bro.

Honestly your sounding just as out of touch. So your long on FB? See a bright future huh

I just understand that FB has a cash cannon they can aim at any of their shortcomings.

 

[Finito]

I just understand that FB has a cash cannon they can aim at any of their shortcomings.

That’s awesome. What do you see for them in the future?

 

[Folster]

That’s awesome. What do you see for them in the future?

A decrease in revenue growth from 38% per year over the last 5 years to just 10% per year over the next 5 years. A decrease in free cash flow over the next 5 years as a percentage of revenue to 25% instead of the 35% we saw over the last 5 years. When you discount those future cash flows back to today at 10%, I get a share price close to what it is today and I didn't even factor in likely share buybacks. So with conservative assumptions, I think FB stock can provide me returns of 10% a year over the next 5 years, hopefully better.

But I could be wrong. If I make 15-20 similarly reasoned bets, I think I'll be okay.

 

[elindholm]

I've only seen it with meme stonks

But how many meme traders can do after hours? I thought after hours was only for the big money guys, not small-change memebros.

Edit: A lot of the after-hours gain didn't stick. It was still up 25% or so, but not the 60% it was overnight.

 

[Folster]

But how many meme traders can do after hours? I thought after hours was only for the big money guys, not small-change memebros.

Edit: A lot of the after-hours gain didn't stick. It was still up 25% or so, but not the 60% it was overnight.

I think most discount brokers let you trade in extended hours. We require a limit price on all orders to protect against the volatility from low volume.

 

[dscher]

Yeah I don't think changing to a video game centric model is the solution at all.

And I'm a lover of games.

The analysts and the so called experts think it's the future. I don't partake personally, but I could see the world at some point turning into a version of ready player one. So who knows. The future is always a weird thing to try and predict. Go back 20-30 years and and tell yourself about all the crap we're doing now. We'd get laughed at.

 

[BigRedRage]

The analysts and the so called experts think it's the future. I don't partake personally, but I could see the world at some point turning into a version of ready player one. So who knows. The future is always a weird thing to try and predict. Go back 20-30 years and and tell yourself about all the crap we're doing now. We'd get laughed at.

I think AR is more likely to be the future than VR. VR is great for gaming but being inside of a VR headset for 8 hours, like they Invision, is nauseating.

 

[dscher]

But did they make that move to late? It’s looking like it.

Not sure. It's still in it's infancy by all accounts...so they can be THE major player if they handle it appropriately. Going back to that free cash flow @Folster was pointing to, it could be what keeps them ahead of anyone else. If smaller companies start eating into their development and market share then they just buy em out and merge. Problem solved.

 

[Folster]

Not sure. It's still in it's infancy by all accounts...so they can be THE major player if they handle it appropriately. Going back to that free cash flow @Folster was pointing to, it could be what keeps them ahead of anyone else. If smaller companies start eating into their development and market share then they just buy em out and merge. Problem solved.

I think acquisitions will be tough for FB due to anti-trust concerns.

 

[elindholm]

I think most discount brokers let you trade in extended hours. We require a limit price on all orders to protect against the volatility from low volume.

Huh, okay. I looked into it briefly with ETrade and got the impression that there were more barriers, so I dropped it. Just as well, since this makes me crazy enough as it is.