The Market 2022-2023-2024

dscher

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Weird. Looks like on the rebound? I get the consumer sentiment. Prices out paced wages even if wages increased.
Correct. The rebounds since 2019/2020 have all been lower highs by a significant margin though relative to stock prices. Of course, these are just sentiment indicators and there are MANY out there with value like this one. But, this has been a pretty decent leading indicator over the decades to gauge the consumer and be a decent warning about potential downturns.
 
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Yuma

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Correct. The rebounds since 2019/2020 have all been lower highs by a significant margin though relative to stock prices. Of course, these are just sentiment indicators and there are MANY out there with value like this one. But, this has been a pretty decent leading indicator over the decades to gauge the consumer and be a decent warning about potential downturns.
Also possible political changes...
 

Russ Smith

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Mentioned before a friend of mine works at Super Micro and has been hit or miss on selling her stock as they have very limited trading windows for all employees. I think she can next sell not next week but the week after. The stock went from 330 to 310 and she was mad that she's losing money daily because she can't sell.

After hours Friday they gave a business update, stock went up 10% after hours. And then Friday it exploded up almost 112 points, 35% and then another 4 bucks after hours! She still can't sell but and she has something like 11 shares vesting, 4 of which I think will go to taxes, but on paper she made about 800 bucks yesterday.

SMCI is one of those companies that's really linked to AI and it's also big in the server market and tends to be a good predictor of upcoming spending by Tech. If SMCI thinks their next few quarters are going to be good it often means it's because they have seen pre orders from big customers that are updating their server rooms.
 

Russ Smith

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Well my friend that works at Super Micro made bank but not as much as she could have.

Trading window opened, in the 3 weeks leading up to it the stock went from about 300, to her selling at 775! She only had 6 shares after taxes but still nice. And of course today it's over 1000 so had she held for 3 days, she sold Monday, she'd have made even more.

But with the window etc the fact is almost everyone she works with that has shares sold too so there was no way to forsee the stock continuing to go up.

AI baby!
 
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Folster

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I can't believe the steaming pile of crap that is DWAC (soon to be DJT) is trading at nearly $50/share. I've read Trump stands to increase his net worth by $3-4 billion once the acquisition is completed. The financials are absolute dog crap of course.

Couple this with bitcoin and it's as if nobody learned anything from the massive speculative asset bubble following Covid.

Just gotta shake my head and keep pumping money into my retirement accounts.
 
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Folster

Folster

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I can't believe the steaming pile of crap that is DWAC (soon to be DJT) is trading at nearly $50/share. I've read Trump stands to increase his net worth by $3-4 billion once the acquisition is completed. The financials are absolute dog crap of course.

Couple this with bitcoin and it's as if nobody learned anything from the massive speculative asset bubble following Covid.

Just gotta shake my head and keep pumping money into my retirement accounts.
Scratch that, now over $70. LOL!
 

dscher

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2021 -- SPX 4800

2024 -- SPX 5000

The current risk/reward in this market is wildly horrendous. You haven't been paid for your risk.

Be safe out there!
 

azmike74

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Still want cuts?

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Can you provide more that I can read on this, and I know you've provided videos previously that I haven't watched.
My understanding of economics is limited but what I believe is the Fed cuts rates to encourage spending when there is an impending economic downturn. I think you'd agree with that and so I'm confused how rate reductions cause stocks to crash or if its just a correlation.
With total clarity, I'm really interested in learning more, not trying to sound contrarian or challenging to this in any way.
 

dscher

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Can you provide more that I can read on this, and I know you've provided videos previously that I haven't watched.
My understanding of economics is limited but what I believe is the Fed cuts rates to encourage spending when there is an impending economic downturn. I think you'd agree with that and so I'm confused how rate reductions cause stocks to crash or if its just a correlation.
With total clarity, I'm really interested in learning more, not trying to sound contrarian or challenging to this in any way.
It's a complex topic that many disagree on... including economists. But, I believe the reason rate cuts are so damaging to the markets is because of the nature of the yield curve. Inversions and the length do the damage. Ie tighten financial conditions...bank lending. The rate cuts will then resteeepen this curve and REALIZE that damage. Ie recession or worse. This is my opinion on rate cuts and why they do so much damage. Especially nowadays with so much central bank intervention and influence.

Good luck. There are many opinions out there. Pick up stuff as you go and keep an open mind. CNBC and economists alike will NOT have all the answers.
 

Yuma

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It's a complex topic that many disagree on... including economists. But, I believe the reason rate cuts are so damaging to the markets is because of the nature of the yield curve. Inversions and the length do the damage. Ie tighten financial conditions...bank lending. The rate cuts will then resteeepen this curve and REALIZE that damage. Ie recession or worse. This is my opinion on rate cuts and why they do so much damage. Especially nowadays with so much central bank intervention and influence.

Good luck. There are many opinions out there. Pick up stuff as you go and keep an open mind. CNBC and economists alike will NOT have all the answers.
It's looking less likely cuts are coming anytime soon. We continue to have strong financial data. My opinion is next meeting will extend delaying cuts and we will have a minor market correction, and then more people buying up more stocks and powering the market up further.
 

Devilmaycare

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It's looking less likely cuts are coming anytime soon. We continue to have strong financial data. My opinion is next meeting will extend delaying cuts and we will have a minor market correction, and then more people buying up more stocks and powering the market up further.
Yeah, we're not getting a cut. My gut's saying that if things stay like they have been then we're going to get a 25 BP increase. We probably should have had one more early on.
 
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