The Market 2022-2023-2024

Yuma

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Can I ask why you believe you are stuck?
I bought SP 500 index in my 401K. I consolidated funds into one 401K and that was mostly when the market was super low. So I want to wait for those stocks to return to normal levels before making moves. I should have some upside.
 

dscher

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I bought SP 500 index in my 401K. I consolidated funds into one 401K and that was mostly when the market was super low. So I want to wait for those stocks to return to normal levels before making moves. I should have some upside.
Gotcha. Good luck. :thumbup:
 

Devilmaycare

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He's saying what I've been thinking. We have another leg down to go. I'm still mostly on the sidelines waiting for it. VIX < 19 has been a sign to sell the last few years and it was at that on Thursday. I still think that there's a good chance that SPX gets down to the 3-3.1k range.
 

dscher

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He's saying what I've been thinking. We have another leg down to go. I'm still mostly on the sidelines waiting for it. VIX < 19 has been a sign to sell the last few years and it was at that on Thursday. I still think that there's a good chance that SPX gets down to the 3-3.1k range.
Agree. That level would at least generate a capitulatory like move in the VIX. Where we go from there, who knows? There will be a secular bear market at that point that will have plenty of resistance to the upside IMHO.
 

dscher

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For anyone interested in some different insight that you won't hear on CNBC.. ;)

 

Yuma

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For anyone interested in some different insight that you won't hear on CNBC.. ;)

It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.
 

Zalixar

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It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.
Banks were given trillions of dollars to kick the can
 

Devilmaycare

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It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.
Since 2008 the markets have been artificially propped up by QE and the Fed Rate. Washington and the Fed kept it going on way to long and didn't let the economy go through it's natural cycles for the last 14 years. Now that QT is starting and they've been forced to raise rates the correction that should have been happening are now starting.

We saw the first of it last year with the tech bubble bursting a bit. That correction caused the SPX drop from 4600 to 3900. Now it almost time for the housing and auto market corrections which I think will be the catalyst for the next leg down.

So this time is a little different than those market signals that made you immune. Businesses not having access to essentially free money like they have for the last decade makes for a huge difference with them.
 

Yuma

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I also wonder about all the money by Boomers in the market for retirement, coupled with millennials (who are a bigger group than Boomers) like my son who are putting money into 401Ks and adding more money into the stock market. There's a LOT of retirement money in and entering the market.
 

elindholm

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It's funny. During the Trump Presidency, not a week went by where I read about signals that always predicted a market crash occurring, yet no market crash ever occurred. I know China is the dog that wags the tail. Their economy goes to **** so does ours. I have just become immune to all these market signals not working.

It's never possible to guarantee that the market won't go down. So there is a cottage industry of naysayers always predicting the next big crash. They are like the proverbial stopped clock that is right twice a day.

Investing in the stock market is not for the risk-averse. As bad as 2022 was, it was no worse than a once-per-decade swoon. And 2023 or 2024 could be even worse. The naysayers are afraid to take on the risk, so they just wring their hands as an excuse to stay out, then hope to get validated by anyone who will listen to them.

I always ask these guys, if you're so confident that the market will tank, why aren't you cleaning up by shorting it? And they never answer.
 

Yuma

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It's never possible to guarantee that the market won't go down. So there is a cottage industry of naysayers always predicting the next big crash. They are like the proverbial stopped clock that is right twice a day.

Investing in the stock market is not for the risk-averse. As bad as 2022 was, it was no worse than a once-per-decade swoon. And 2023 or 2024 could be even worse. The naysayers are afraid to take on the risk, so they just wring their hands as an excuse to stay out, then hope to get validated by anyone who will listen to them.

I always ask these guys, if you're so confident that the market will tank, why aren't you cleaning up by shorting it? And they never answer.
Exactly! I have to learn to short stocks.
 

Yuma

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Did you guys see the national stakes in England?

It was expected to be the largest day of industrial action in a decade with civil servants, train and bus drivers and university lecturers also striking.

Inflation is squeezing salaries, and in England the government controls a lot of the salaries and who can get raises. England is afraid raising salaries will flood era billions of spending into a high inflation market, making its worse. I heard on NPR that public sentiment is pro strikers, and even if it will raise taxes, there is pressure on the government to raise salaries. Could have global implications.

Strikes in England
 

dscher

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Stay safe out there.

 

dscher

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Has he ever been right? I watched Iron Man last night and he was even wrong in it about Stark Industries. :)
No. He's hasn't. Lol.

I have a close FinTwit community that keeps a eye on his tweets for contrarian takes and the hilarity ensues with **** posting on him when he does. Haha Unusual whales and a few others have tracked an inverse Cramer portfolio and it's outperformed significantly. Something like 30-40 percent last year.

The Iron man thing is hilarious. Never caught that before.
 
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Devilmaycare

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No. He's hasn't. Lol.

I have a close FinTwit community that keeps a eye on his tweets for contrarian takes and the hilarity ensues with **** posting on him when he does. Haha Unusual whales and a few others have tracked an inverse Cramer portfolio and it's outperformed significantly. Something like 30-40 percent last year.

The Iron man thing is hilarious. Never caught that before.
After the video in the tweet you posted I've been chatting with one of my buddies that's into investing. Both of us are convinced now that we're close to hitting out next leg down and then going to be sideways for the rest of the year. There's just so many signs when looking at SPY, QQQ, VIX, etc.

I had forgotten about Cramer in Iron Man too but it got a huge laugh out of me last night. It's right after Tony announces that they're not going to sell weapons anymore.

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dscher

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After the video in the tweet you posted I've been chatting with one of my buddies that's into investing. Both of us are convinced now that we're close to hitting out next leg down and then going to be sideways for the rest of the year. There's just so many signs when looking at SPY, QQQ, VIX, etc.

I had forgotten about Cramer in Iron Man too but it got a huge laugh out of me last night. It's right after Tony announces that they're not going to sell weapons anymore.

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Haha. That's good stuff! Even Hollywood understands the power of inversing Cramer... :p

Yeah, I've been pretty clear about my position on the market for a bit now. Based on my technicals, I could see two decent sized waves to the downside this year. The Mac10 follow is one of my favorites. He blends a macro/fundamental picture within his charts and technical analysis, which is the best of both worlds IMO. But personally, I have some targets and the first would be about 25-26k on the Dow for the first leg, followed by another exhaustion leg that gets us to a capitulatory low around 18-19k. I'm gauging about a 50 percent move across most risk assets. It's a bold call, but I follow my charts and the movement of the debt market and dollar currently are pointing in the direction of something breaking at some point. Maybe soon-ish.
 

Devilmaycare

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QQQ is knocking on a downside and there's big flow on the put side of things with the big boys and MAGA stocks.
 
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