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MISSOULA, MONTANA - SEPTEMBER 30: Eli Gillman #10 of the Montana Grizzlies runs for yards during a game against the Idaho State Bengals at Washington-Grizzly Stadium on September 30, 2023 in Missoula, Montana. (Photo by Tommy Martino/University of Montana/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Over the last few seasons it feels like the upper tier of the FCS has been a pre-written book that everyone already knows how it ends. Sure, there are a few upsets here and there, but for the most part the top teams go chalk. It’s why we see the same usual suspects standing at the end. Even if it seems like a lot of the games can be inked in well before they’re played, there’s a reason they are still decided on the field. There are a handful of squads that are in true contention for a championship in 2026 and with those expectations comes the possibility for a letdown somewhere along the way.
Where might every top FCS team find themselves tripping up if they aren’t careful this season?
Montana State – at Idaho (Week 5)
Montana State and the Kibbie Dome do not mix well at all. For whatever reason the Bobcats always seem to have a difficult time when they play in Moscow and that’s where the defending national champs will be headed on October 2 this year. MSU will surely be a heavy favorite to handle a Vandals squad that won just four games last season but this game could at least have the right ingredients for an upset going in. MSU has not beaten Idaho on the road since 1990 (granted the Vandals were FBS for many of those years in between then and now). In 2023 it was the 24-21 loss in the dome that put a grinding halt to a 6-1 start for the ‘Cats and began a tailspin that ended in an 8-4 record. It is simply not a place that Montana State wins at and Idaho should be at least a bit better now that head coach Thomas Ford is in his second season.
South Dakota State – at Northern Iowa (Week 10)
Although it hasn’t happened in recent years, South Dakota State has had a history of stubbing its toe against Northern Iowa when they meet. This year the two teams will come together at a critical point in the season with just a few weeks left to play. SDSU will likely be vying for playoff seeding at that time and will have just come off what will probably be an emotionally-charged rivalry showdown with South Dakota the week prior. UNI has not been good as of late but the Panthers are a team with a lot of success throughout their history and it only seems like it’s a matter of time before they right the ship and start to return to relevance in the Missouri Valley. If the Jackrabbits don’t take this game seriously then it could end up being a major road bump.
Montana – vs. Idaho State (Week 11)
All the anticipation for the annual Brawl of the Wild in the Treasure State can often lead to letdowns in the week prior if the teams are already looking ahead. That is the exact scenario that Montana will be trying to avoid on November 14 this year when they welcome in Idaho State. Every metric would say that the Griz will win this game. It’s at home, under the bright lights of ESPN at a time of year that could be nice and cold for the visitors who are used to playing inside; the type of game that UM just doesn’t lose. But this ISU outfit is not necessarily the ho-hum squads of years past. The Bengals are a sleeper pick by some to make a playoff push this year and, at that juncture of the season, they’ll be needing every win they can muster up to get there. Jordan Cooke is as talented an arm as there is the FCS and it was this Idaho State bunch that pushed Montana to the brink in Pocatello last year. Things could get tense at Wa-Griz here.
Rhode Island – vs. Towson (Week 11)
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As the CAA continues to crumble around Rhode Island, the Rams are becoming heavier and heavier favorites with each season. In 2026 Rhody, quite frankly, should walk away with this conference now that the likes of Villanova and William & Mary among several others are now gone. That being said, when Towson pays a visit in the second-to-last week this year, Devin Farrell and company cannot rest on their laurels. The Tigers have been sneakily approaching contender status and they might be just one big win away from a real breakthrough. What better way to get that win than dispatching a Rhode Island team that will likely be looking to wrap up a conference title and jockeying for playoff positioning come mid-November. The two programs have not met since the 2023 season but that year Towson came out on top when they did play. The Rams will be coming off another big game with New Hampshire and a letdown is entirely possible.
Illinois State – vs. Indiana State (Week 8)
Earlier this month Indiana State was picked to finish eighth in a loaded Missouri Valley this year but that does not mean that they won’t be able to give Illinois State a scare on October 24. The defending national runner-up Redbirds host the Sycamores for homecoming on what could be a pivotal mid-season swing contest. This will be right when they are entering an “easier” part of the schedule having just played South Dakota State and Southern Illinois. With this game and an ensuing one against Murray State, Illinois State might find themselves loosening up too much and, if that’s the case, this is an Indiana State team that could strike. Just ask the Jackrabbits last year.
Tarleton State – at West Florida (Week 11)
As good as Tarleton State has been in recent years, the Texans always have a game where they can’t seem to get out of their own way and it ends up costing them. Lately that game has come against UAC foe Abilene Christian but this year it just might be the new kids on the block that could give them trouble if they aren’t at their collective best. West Florida begins FCS play this fall and they’re looking to make some noise right away after moving up. In the penultimate week of the regular season they’ll host TSU in a matchup that could get interesting. The Argos were a power at the DII level and might not miss a beat as they transition. Tarleton State should be well on its way to the playoffs by mid November when this game rolls around but if they’re already to focused on December ball, West Florida might just land an upset here.
Youngstown State – vs. Duquesne (Week 2)
Youngstown State fans and players will be replaying last year’s gut-wrenching loss to Yale in the playoffs in their minds for a long time and those demons might not be totally gone come Week 2. How likely is it that the high-powered Penguins drop their early-season contest to the Dukes? Not really all that likely. That is precisely why YSU needs to be alert for this game, though. Duquesne is a constant player in the NEC race and every so often they give someone trouble at some point. Youngstown State has a defense that really wasn’t good at all in 2025 and they still might be trying to iron some things out at the start of the year. In all likelihood, the Penguins come into this one at 1-1 and fresh off a loss to FBS Kentucky. If that game in Lexington is a close and emotionally-draining one, however, the tanks might not be entirely full for Duquesne and that’s when something bad could happen.
UC Davis – at Southern Utah (Week 7)
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UC Davis comes into 2026 as a legitimate Big Sky contender once again but, as is always the case in that conference, there is little to no room for error if they want to take home the title and it’s as easy in the Big Sky as any league to slip up on any given week. The game that the Aggies should have circled more than any other for those worries is their October 17 matchup with Southern Utah. They’ve seen the Thunderbirds twice over the last two years in out-of-conference play and now it will be a bonafide league game. They handled SUU with relative ease last year but 2024 was a dogfight that they barely won and that was the last time the game was in Cedar City. This year it’s back in Utah again and it will be right after the bye week for both squads. The extended time off leading into this one might be helpful but it also might be just the thing that leads to a sluggish road performance.
Austin Peay – at West Georgia (Week 7)
Several are picking Austin Peay to make a real push this year and there’s a chance they do but navigating the UAC will be no easy feat. It isn’t only the matchups against the Tarleton States and Abilene Christians of the world, however, that should have the Govs on their toes. While it feels like almost anyone in that conference can beat anyone else this year, the one game that Austin Peay really will need to be on upset alert for is their October 17 showdown with West Georgia. The Wolves may just be in their third season as a Division I program but they’ve shown flashes. Last year they finished the season with a 8-3 overall record and checked in at #22 in the polls. They also dropped 30 points on the Governors when they met last time around.
North Dakota – at Northern Iowa (Week 6)
No matter what kind of season UND is having, it seems like they always falter against someone they shouldn’t. In some ways it’s what is holding the Hawks back from being a true threat year in and year out. This year that game could be against UNI. Three games into their Missouri Valley slate, North Dakota will more than likely be 2-0 in league play and have just beaten both Indiana State and Murray State. Their October 10 game against Northern Iowa will be the fourth road contest in five weeks and playing away from the Alerus Center has always been more difficult than playing at home. The Panthers are one of those teams that seem to always be looming in the background waiting to land a punch on someone that isn’t ready. It would not necessarily be a surprise to see this one come down to the wire.
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