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Tennessee baseball likely needs to win half of its 12 remaining SEC games to make the NCAA Tournament.
That’s where the Vols sit after a topsy-turvy two weeks that included a stunning sweep of Mississippi State and a disappointing series loss to Ole Miss.
They’re in a better position than before that stretch but still riding a razor’s edge with four weekend series left in the regular season. And each of those series has a chance to make or break UT’s postseason resume.
Tennessee (27-14, 8-10 SEC) plays No. 15 Alabama (28-14, 9-9) at Lindsey Nelson Stadium on April 23 (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2), April 24 (6:30 p.m., SEC Network+) and April 25 (1 p.m., SEC Network+).
The series has been pretty even in recent years. UT has won seven of the last 12 games against Alabama, and they've met in the SEC tournament three times during that stretch.
“The nine or 10 years we played these guys, it’s always a battle, regardless of who’s on the roster, home or road," UT coach Josh Elander said. "We're on our home turf this weekend, and I’m excited for the challenge."
Here’s a quick look at the Vols’ postseason resume heading into a pivotal home series.
Tennessee is projected as a No. 3 seed in an NCAA regional but slightly better than the “last four in” group of teams. Losing the Alabama series could bump the Vols to the edge of the 64-team field. Winning the Alabama series could push them to a No. 2 seed.
D1Baseball.com projects Tennessee in the Conway Regional, hosted by Coastal Carolina. Baseball America projects Tennessee in the Tallahassee regional, hosted by Florida State.
This series is a big opportunity for the Vols because Alabama is projected to host an NCAA regional as a No. 1 seed.
The parity in the SEC this season could make things unpredictable.
But, historically, SEC teams with 14 conference wins usually make the NCAA Tournament. Teams with 13 conference wins occasionally make it.
Tennessee has eight SEC wins and 12 league games remaining. To reach the 14-win mark, the Vols must go 6-6.
They have SEC series remaining against No. 15 Alabama, Kentucky, No. 4 Texas and No. 13 Oklahoma. All four are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, and as many as three could host a regional.
That means these series matter as much to the opponent as they do Tennessee.
Tennessee’s difficult schedule could be an asset or a drawback, depending on how the Vols finish the season. D1Baseball.com ranked UT’s schedule as the 20th most difficult, and it gets harder from here.
The Vols rank No. 31 in RPI with a strong 6-5 record against Quad 1 opponents, including four wins in the past two weeks over Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
But all four remaining SEC opponents rank in the top 30 in RPI: No. 2 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 17 Oklahoma and No. 29 Kentucky.
That presents an opportunity to claim an NCAA Tournament spot by winning about half those games. But it also leaves open the possibility the Vols could succumb against elite competition.
UT advanced to at least the NCAA super regional in each of the past five seasons under former coach Tony Vitello, along with three College World Series appearances and the 2024 national title. Elander was promoted when Vitello was hired as the manager of the San Francisco Giants. His Vols have good starting pitchers to perhaps make a postseason run, but getting the club into the NCAA Tournament is the first step.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee beat reporter. Email [email protected]. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.
Get the latest news and insight on SEC football by subscribing to the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee baseball NCAA Tournament projection, RPI vs Alabama
Continue reading...
That’s where the Vols sit after a topsy-turvy two weeks that included a stunning sweep of Mississippi State and a disappointing series loss to Ole Miss.
They’re in a better position than before that stretch but still riding a razor’s edge with four weekend series left in the regular season. And each of those series has a chance to make or break UT’s postseason resume.
Tennessee (27-14, 8-10 SEC) plays No. 15 Alabama (28-14, 9-9) at Lindsey Nelson Stadium on April 23 (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2), April 24 (6:30 p.m., SEC Network+) and April 25 (1 p.m., SEC Network+).
The series has been pretty even in recent years. UT has won seven of the last 12 games against Alabama, and they've met in the SEC tournament three times during that stretch.
“The nine or 10 years we played these guys, it’s always a battle, regardless of who’s on the roster, home or road," UT coach Josh Elander said. "We're on our home turf this weekend, and I’m excited for the challenge."
Here’s a quick look at the Vols’ postseason resume heading into a pivotal home series.
Tennessee baseball's latest NCAA projections
Tennessee is projected as a No. 3 seed in an NCAA regional but slightly better than the “last four in” group of teams. Losing the Alabama series could bump the Vols to the edge of the 64-team field. Winning the Alabama series could push them to a No. 2 seed.
D1Baseball.com projects Tennessee in the Conway Regional, hosted by Coastal Carolina. Baseball America projects Tennessee in the Tallahassee regional, hosted by Florida State.
This series is a big opportunity for the Vols because Alabama is projected to host an NCAA regional as a No. 1 seed.
Why Tennessee needs to split SEC games for NCAA bid
The parity in the SEC this season could make things unpredictable.
But, historically, SEC teams with 14 conference wins usually make the NCAA Tournament. Teams with 13 conference wins occasionally make it.
Tennessee has eight SEC wins and 12 league games remaining. To reach the 14-win mark, the Vols must go 6-6.
They have SEC series remaining against No. 15 Alabama, Kentucky, No. 4 Texas and No. 13 Oklahoma. All four are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, and as many as three could host a regional.
That means these series matter as much to the opponent as they do Tennessee.
Why Tennessee schedule could make or break NCAA bid
Tennessee’s difficult schedule could be an asset or a drawback, depending on how the Vols finish the season. D1Baseball.com ranked UT’s schedule as the 20th most difficult, and it gets harder from here.
The Vols rank No. 31 in RPI with a strong 6-5 record against Quad 1 opponents, including four wins in the past two weeks over Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
But all four remaining SEC opponents rank in the top 30 in RPI: No. 2 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 17 Oklahoma and No. 29 Kentucky.
That presents an opportunity to claim an NCAA Tournament spot by winning about half those games. But it also leaves open the possibility the Vols could succumb against elite competition.
UT advanced to at least the NCAA super regional in each of the past five seasons under former coach Tony Vitello, along with three College World Series appearances and the 2024 national title. Elander was promoted when Vitello was hired as the manager of the San Francisco Giants. His Vols have good starting pitchers to perhaps make a postseason run, but getting the club into the NCAA Tournament is the first step.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee beat reporter. Email [email protected]. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.
Get the latest news and insight on SEC football by subscribing to the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee baseball NCAA Tournament projection, RPI vs Alabama
Continue reading...
