Super Bowl LVIII (58)

kerouac9

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Crazy that the line hasn't moved much in this game. My BetMGM app says 80% of the moneyline bets and like 70% of the spread bets are coming in on KC. I'd be interested to know how Vegas hedges that much one-sided risk, unless a lot of the money is tied to unlikely parlays or something.
 

Chopper0080

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Crazy that the line hasn't moved much in this game. My BetMGM app says 80% of the moneyline bets and like 70% of the spread bets are coming in on KC. I'd be interested to know how Vegas hedges that much one-sided risk, unless a lot of the money is tied to unlikely parlays or something.
I definitely weighed this vs Mahomes vs a Steve Wilks defense. Mahomes won.
 

dreamcastrocks

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Crazy that the line hasn't moved much in this game. My BetMGM app says 80% of the moneyline bets and like 70% of the spread bets are coming in on KC. I'd be interested to know how Vegas hedges that much one-sided risk, unless a lot of the money is tied to unlikely parlays or something.
I would have bet Mahomes if he were the favorite. As an underdog and his pedigree, it almost seems like they are giving away money at this point. KC has beaten two really good teams that are more complete than KC on their way to the SB, and I expect them to do it again against SF.
 

kerouac9

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I definitely weighed this vs Mahomes vs a Steve Wilks defense. Mahomes won.

No kidding. Imagine Steve Wilks getting a ring before Michael/Kyler.

Still, that 49ers offense is absolutely loaded, and apparently the KC d-line is in rough shape.

I would have bet Mahomes if he were the favorite. As an underdog and his pedigree, it almost seems like they are giving away money at this point. KC has beaten two really good teams that are more complete than KC on their way to the SB, and I expect them to do it again against SF.
It seems crazy, but when was the last time the narrative was this obvious and Vegas came out on the wrong side?
 

Crimson Warrior

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Crazy that the line hasn't moved much in this game. My BetMGM app says 80% of the moneyline bets and like 70% of the spread bets are coming in on KC. I'd be interested to know how Vegas hedges that much one-sided risk, unless a lot of the money is tied to unlikely parlays or something.

Books use the SB to let suckers get a little back. This makes sure they come back next season. ;)
 

Devilmaycare

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Crazy that the line hasn't moved much in this game. My BetMGM app says 80% of the moneyline bets and like 70% of the spread bets are coming in on KC. I'd be interested to know how Vegas hedges that much one-sided risk, unless a lot of the money is tied to unlikely parlays or something.
Is the 80% of the number of bets or the money amount? I could see there being more bets for KC but the money being similar due to the 49ers being the silicon valley team. A $1000 bet cover 10 $100 ones.
 

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Tough one to call.

KCs biggest weakness for me is it's receiving options. If SF can minimise Kelce their other options aren't great and they don't have a great run game to lean on. I think SFs Edges are a miss match vs tackles too.

But, while I think Purdy is far better than given credit for, I fancy Spags defense to make Purdy struggle more than Wilks will with Mahomes.

The wild card is the Chiefs run D. It's not good and I'm I'm the Niners I might just run all over them and control the ball. I think this will be the key.

Really 50/50 for me but I'll lean towards Mahomes making the difference. Niners rookie kicker might be the difference maker.
 

netsnjkidd

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The key is:

Can KC's secondary convert all those interceptions that Detroit and GB dropped?
Since playoffs started purdy has giving defenses 2-3 int chances. If trend continues chiefs defense has to advantage of these chances. Give mahomes chances to put more pts up on wilks subpar defense.
 

kerouac9

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Is the 80% of the number of bets or the money amount? I could see there being more bets for KC but the money being similar due to the 49ers being the silicon valley team. A $1000 bet cover 10 $100 ones.
There are lots of websites that click deeper into this than I can look at, but with so much action on the Super Bowl, I think it all comes out in the wash.
 

AZCB34

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Since playoffs started purdy has giving defenses 2-3 int chances. If trend continues chiefs defense has to advantage of these chances. Give mahomes chances to put more pts up on wilks subpar defense.
Wilks defense, I believe, was the #3 scoring defense in the league this year. Not sure I would call that subpar. Yes, Detroit had one good half but one half does not tell the story. I know people around here like to cling to false narratives but you may wish to consider letting this one go.
 

netsnjkidd

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Wilks defense, I believe, was the #3 scoring defense in the league this year. Not sure I would call that subpar. Yes, Detroit had one good half but one half does not tell the story. I know people around here like to cling to false narratives but you may wish to consider letting this one go.
Yea they started off hot but these last couple weeks they haven't looked sharp with all the talent they got. especially run wise. packers were getting anything they wanted to. I have total belief Andy Reid is not stressing over wilks coached defense giving him something he cant out scheme. especially with 2 weeks to prepare
 

Dback Jon

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Wilks defense, I believe, was the #3 scoring defense in the league this year. Not sure I would call that subpar. Yes, Detroit had one good half but one half does not tell the story. I know people around here like to cling to false narratives but you may wish to consider letting this one go.
How is that a false narrative?

Purdy was Purdy pedestrian for much of the Det and GB games. 1 made interception in each game puts it out of reach
 
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