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DENVER, CO - AUGUST 05: Kyle Karros #12 of the Colorado Rockies looks on during the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Wednesday, August 5, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Casey Paul/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
There is a little game inside almost every Kyle Karros plate appearance.
The pitcher is trying to get Karros to commit to something Karros does not want. Karros is trying to keep enough control of the count so that he can eventually force the pitcher into something he does want.
Sometimes that means taking a pitch he could probably hit.
Sometimes it means letting a breaking ball travel long enough to see it leave the zone.
And sometimes the count moves far enough in his favor that he can forget about covering everything, get further out front, and try to do real damage.
That is the fun part of watching Karros hit. The count is constantly changing what he can look for, how much of the zone he needs to protect, and what kind of swing he can afford to take.
There is a game happening before the ball gets put in play.
And Karros happens to be especially good at playing it.
Getting to a pitch you can handle
Karros’ version is his own, but the larger idea is not.
The Rockies are trying to teach hitters to think about an at-bat as more than a sequence of balls and strikes.
Assistant hitting coach Jordan Pacheco put the question this way: “What zone are you looking, and how aggressive are you going to be to the zone, and are you committed to it?”
He referred to those areas as hitting “tunnels.”
“When you start doing that to guys and start to emphasize and enforce, these are kind of the tunnels that we are trying to get the pitcher in,” Pacheco said, “they start to control the strike zone, and then they start to swing at a better quality pitch.”
The larger goal is to work toward a pitch the hitter can handle.
A strike is not automatically that pitch.
Sometimes controlling the at-bat means deciding a pitch is not worth a swing.
A fastball near the knees might be perfectly hittable and still not be what Karros wants at 2-0. With two strikes, that same pitch may have to be protected.
The count changes the terms, and Karros can describe exactly how.
What the count buys
Hitters produce better overall results when they get ahead. That part is hardly controversial.
What is easy to miss is just how much the count changes the environment of the at-bat.
In a FanGraphs study of production after different counts, hitters produced a .434 wOBA after reaching 2-0 and .476 after 3-1. After 1-1, production was .303 wOBA. After 1-2, it fell to .228 wOBA.
Some of that reflects which hitters reach those counts, but the study found only modest differences in hitter quality. The count itself was doing most of the work.
A 2-0 count does not give Karros more bat speed.
It gives him more choices.
“If there’s a count where I think the pitcher’s going to lean more — going to throw a ball — try to get me to chase, I think I just try to let it travel a little deeper,” Karros said. “And that normally allows me to see it deep. If it’s a slider, I get to see it deep enough to where, okay, it breaks out of the zone for a ball.”
Letting the ball travel gives Karros more time to identify the pitch, but moves his contact point deeper.
When Karros owns the count, he can make the opposite trade: He can narrow what he is willing to swing at, commit to a more specific pitch, and plan to meet it farther in front of the plate.
At 2-0, he knows exactly what he wants.
“I think a 2-0 [count], I’m trying to elevate the ball, drive it in the air, so I’m probably looking for something up,” Karros said. “And like I said, I’m going to play around a little more out front in that count.”
The target gets smaller.
“So I’m going to get my swing going, and if the ball’s up and in my zone, I’m gonna let it rip.”
And if he guesses wrong?
“I’m okay with maybe if I swing at a bad pitch in that count,” he said. “I’m okay still being ahead 2-1.”
That is the value of leverage in one sentence.
The numbers behind Karros’ split production illustrate that exact trade-off in real time:
| After reaching… | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | sOPS+ |
| 0-2 | 76 | .176 | .197 | .243 | .441 | 97 |
| 1-2 | 101 | .138 | .198 | .192 | .390 | 61 |
| 1-1 | 167 | .247 | .335 | .384 | .719 | 116 |
| 2-0 | 52 | .280 | .654 | .560 | 1.214 | 149 |
| 2-1 | 99 | .237 | .404 | .421 | .825 | 108 |
| 3-1 | 39 | .273 | .590 | .727 | 1.317 | 161 |
sOPS+ compares his OPS to the league average for that same split, with 100 representing league average.
Karros has earned enough control of the at-bat that he can afford to give a little of it back in pursuit of damage.
When Wacha wins
Karros’ approach gives him a way to control an at-bat.
It does not guarantee he wins it.
There are still plenty of times when the pitcher simply executes better. Michael Wacha gave him one of those at-bats on July 31.
Wacha started with a cutter for a called strike. Cutters can be difficult to square up. Reasonable pass.
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Then Wacha went to the outside edge with a sinker.
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0-2. Now Karros had to protect.
Wacha dropped a curveball below the zone, working off the spot he had just hit with the sinker.
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Karros tracked it long enough to see it finish underneath the zone.
Then came a slider in nearly the same area, again breaking below the zone.
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An 0-2 count had become 2-2.
Wacha went back to the sinker, this time elevating it toward the top of the zone on the outside edge.
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Karros let the ball travel and fouled it off, keeping the at-bat alive.
Then Wacha returned to the spot he had been building everything around, and painted a 92.3 mph four-seam fastball low and away.
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Wacha had spent the at-bat working spin underneath that outside edge. By the time he put a fastball back on the spot, Karros was still respecting the pitches that could fall out of the zone.
Karros watched strike three. He would do it again.
“I think I try to take the result out of it as much as I can, just because there’s so much luck that comes into play,” Karros said. “Whether there’s a defender playing there, whether the pitcher made a good pitch or not, I think that often gets overlooked.”
Then he brought up the Wacha plate appearance himself.
“I went down looking at strike three,” Karros said. “I’ll go down looking at that pitch 100 out of 100 times, fastball low and away from Wacha.”
The reason gets back to the tunnel.
“I think you have to tip your cap there because if you are covering that pitch, then you’re really susceptible to any sliders or stuff moving off the plate in that tunnel.”
Wacha won the at-bat.
Karros still liked the decisions that got him there.
When Karros wins
The reason Karros can live with those losses is that he does not need to abandon the approach to produce offense.
A day after the Wacha strikeout, Luinder Avila got him to 1-2 before throwing a fastball up and away.
Karros let it travel and drove it to right field for a double.
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Karros’ contact ability gives him ways to win even when the count does not let him hunt something out front. His spray chart shows his ability to use the whole field.
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And Karros can also win without making contact.
Against Jack Leiter, with two outs and the bases loaded, Karros fell behind 1-2.
He fouled off a changeup, then took two more below the zone to work the count full.
Leiter came back with a 96.3 mph four-seam fastball near the edge.
Karros took it for a called strike three.
Except Karros challenged the call.
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ABS overturned it. Ball four. Run in.
Against Avila, Karros won with his contact. Against Leiter, he won with his eye.
But when the count moves in his favor, he can ask for more.
Let it rip
Manager Warren Schaeffer said the swing decisions were never the part Karros needed to build.
“He’s always had that,” Schaeffer said. “That’s a big part of his game from day one. He’s done it for a long time.”
“The big part, I think, for him is to add to that with the power that will come and the pull side power, which he’s made a really nice adjustment this year to get to that,” Schaeffer continued.
That pull-side power fits neatly with the way Karros describes favorable counts: shrink the target, work farther out front and hunt something he can drive.
On June 27 against Minnesota right-hander Marco Raya, Karros got the chance.
He reached 3-1 and got a 95.6 mph four-seam fastball.
Knowing he had the margin for error to cheat out front, he didn’t wait for it to travel. Karros caught it early and drove it over the wall for a home run.
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Karros is not becoming a different hitter. He is becoming a more dangerous version of the same one.
The beauty of the approach
Karros slugged .294 in March and .267 in April before climbing to .380 in May, .586 in June and .520 in July, when he hit four home runs.
Just as important, the rest of the profile has held as that power has emerged. His chase rate has barely moved from last season, while his zone-contact rate has improved and his whiff rate has fallen to 24.1 percent. He is also walking 12.2 percent of the time against a 20.9 percent strikeout rate.
The ability to slug is becoming a bigger part of Karros’ profile but is not the foundation of it.
Hunter Goodman offers a useful contrast. Goodman has the kind of prodigious power that can carry an offensive profile on its own. Karros does not have that kind of power.
Karros is built differently. His approach — his ability to work an at-bat, control what he is willing to cover and recognize when the count gives him room to attack — is one of the things carrying his.
The added power gives that approach another way to hurt a pitcher. It does not need to replace what Karros is inherently doing well.
The Rockies are trying to teach that kind of approach throughout the organization. Karros believes there is plenty within it that hitters can learn, but he is more skeptical about what sits underneath the decisions.
“I think you can learn certain counts to maybe be more aggressive or less aggressive,” Karros said. “But as far as pitch recognition goes, I don’t really think it’s something that you learn.”
A lifetime around the game probably helps.
Pacheco believes Karros had an unusual head start, pointing to a lifetime around baseball and his father, Eric Karros, who spent 14 seasons in the majors.
Schaeffer calls what has emerged “a professional at bat pretty much all the time.”
That is the beauty of watching Karros hit.
The count changes what the at-bat asks of him.
Sometimes that means letting the ball travel. Sometimes it means getting farther out front.
The skill is knowing which one the moment calls for.
On the Farm
Triple-A:Sugar Land Space Cowboys 18, Albuquerque Isotopes 10 (F/10)
The Sugar Land Space Cowboys (59-52) handed the Albuquerque Isotopes (57-55) a messy extra-inning loss Friday night, scoring 11 runs in the 10th after the teams entered the inning tied at seven.
Ryan Ritter led Albuquerque with a 4-for-4 night, doubling, driving in two and stealing two bases. Connor Norby went 2-for-6 with a double and an RBI and is batting .357 with two homers and a double through his first three games with the Isotopes. Zac Veen reached four times, going 1-for-1 with two walks and a hit-by-pitch. He joined Norby on a first-inning double steal before being ejected in the seventh, with Adael Amador taking over in left field.
Charlie Condon finished 1-for-5. Albuquerque’s pitching staff allowed 17 hits and 10 walks in the loss.
Double-A:Binghamton Rumble Ponies 1, Hartford Yard Goats 0
Hartford (54-51) managed just four hits and four walks while striking out 13 times in a 1-0 loss to Binghamton (42-64).
Stu Flesland III was excellent, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out seven over seven scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 2.09. Cole Messina had Hartford’s only extra-base hit, a fifth-inning double, and also stole third.
Carlos Torres took over in the eighth and allowed the game’s only run on two hits.
High-A:Eugene Emeralds 4, Spokane Indians 2
Spokane (49-57) dropped another low-scoring game, falling 4-2 to Eugene (65-41).
Roldy Brito led the offense, going 3-for-5 with two doubles, an RBI and a stolen base. Tanner Thach went 2-for-3 with a walk and drove in Spokane’s first run in the opening inning.
Everett Catlett struck out seven over 5.1 innings, but five walks helped lead to three runs allowed. Grif Hughes covered the final 3.2 innings, allowing one run and striking out three.
Single-A:Visalia Rawhide 7, Fresno Grizzlies 2
Fresno (59-47) was undone by a seven-run fourth inning in a 7-2 loss to Visalia (42-64).
The inning included three walks before an out was recorded, plus errors by Juan Martinez and Cristian Arguelles as the Rawhide sent 10 batters to the plate.
Arguelles went 2-for-4 with his fourth Single-A double, while Wilder Dalis tripled him home as part of a two-RBI night.
Sandy Ozuna did not allow a hit over 3.0 innings but walked five and was charged with three runs. Ethan Cole allowed the other four runs over 5.0 innings.
In season of improvement, Rockies must avoid 100 losses to sell real progress | denverpost.com ($)
Troy Renck at The Denver Post argues that avoiding a fourth straight 100-loss season would be a meaningful marker of progress for a Rockies team that has shown real offensive improvement in 2026. He points to a deeper lineup and emerging young core, but says the larger question remains whether Colorado can build a viable rotation around its young arms.
More success by being less perfect: Rockies prospect inches toward MLB debut | mlb.com
Thomas Harding at MLB.com writes that Jack Mahoney’s biggest step forward may be as much mental as mechanical, with the right-hander learning to trade perfectionism for creativity and confidence on the mound. After a 1.99 ERA at Double-A Hartford and a strong Triple-A debut, Mahoney has put himself among the Rockies’ top candidates for a major-league look over the final two months.
Colorado Rockies Expecting Big Things From 19-Year-Old Outfielder | SI.com
Ryan Boman at Sports Illustrated highlights Cristian Arguelles as one of the Rockies’ fastest-rising young prospects, pointing to his strong production, plate discipline and ability to use the whole field. He argues the 19-year-old could be ahead of his original development timeline, even if Colorado is likely to remain patient with his climb through the system.
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