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Monday night, the NHL will hold the lottery to determine the order of selections at June's Draft. There's not much riding on it from a Detroit Red Wings perspective, but here's what you need to know heading into the evening's proceedings:
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First up, this year, the NHL has elected to change the presentation of the lottery ceremony. Instead of a backstage drawing before going live and deputy commissioner Bill Daly revealing the results, the balls will be drawn live on ESPN's airwaves tonight at 7, before the Maple Leafs and Panthers get the second round of the playoffs started.
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As noted at the outset, the Red Wings more than likely already know their fate. Per Tankathon.com, Detroit has an 85.7% chance of holding onto the 12th pick (the selection the lottery-free standings would allocate it.
Tankathon suggests there are four picks the Wings could wind up with if not the 12th selection. The likeliest of those outcomes is dropping to 13th overall (8.9% chance), but the site also estimates Detroit has a slim chance of jumping to the third or fourth pick (0.1%) or falling back to 14th (0.2%).
The two favorites for the top selection are the two last teams to win the draft lottery: the Chicago Blackhawks (who won the Connor Bedard sweepstakes in 2023, 13.5% chance at number one Monday night) and the San Jose Sharks (who won the right to take Macklin Celebrini first overall in 2024, 25.5% chance to pick first again).
Unlike the previous two drafts, the ideal option at the top of the heap isn't entirely clear. Defenseman Matthew Schaefer of the Erie Otters is probably the favorite for that distinction, but injuries limited him to just 17 OHL games this season. Behind him, Michael Misa of the OHL's Saginaw Spirit, James Hagens out of Boston College, and Anton Frondell of Djurgardens in the SHL could all wind up the top pick come June.
Of course, that one be decided tonight, just the team that gets their top pick of that cohort.
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