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Algorithms and math only tell part of the story when examining one football team against another, because everything will ultimately be settled on the field. Still, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) can be a useful tool to predict future outcomes based on talent, simulations and strengths.
Based on the FPI, the Oregon Ducks are one of the favorites to win the national championship, holding a good chance to get to the Big Ten Championship game and make another deep run in the College Football Playoff. However, it won't be easy to get there. The Ducks have a tougher schedule this season, with challenging road trips within conference play on the docket, as well as a pair of non-conference tests to start the season.
The FPI has high hopes for the Ducks this season, but the path to the national championship won't be easy. Let's rank all of Oregon's opponents this season according to ESPN's FPI rankings.
FPI Ranking: 65th
Not much is expected of Michigan State this season, but they fall at an interesting spot in Oregon's schedule, between home matchups against Michigan and Washington. The game is also on a Friday night, so the Ducks will be on short rest following physical matchups against Ohio State and Michigan.
FPI Ranking: 64th
Bob Chesney got stomped by Oregon in the College Football Playoff last season while leading James Madison, but he did manage to put up 34 points and over 500 yards of offense. Now, coming to UCLA with some better talent, including Nico Iamaleava under center, Chesney could test the Ducks again in his second trip to Eugene. However, Oregon does have the benefit of a bye before the game.
FPI Ranking: 60th
Halloween at Autzen will bring Chip Kelly back to Eugene as the offensive coordinator for Northwestern. The Wildcats have improved, but still are not on par with the Ducks to give them enough trouble to be worried in a raucous atmosphere.
FPI Ranking: 54th
Oklahoma State isn't one to look past this season. The Ducks blasted the Cowboys 66-3 last season, but now under new leadership with a completely reworked roster, the Cowboys have a chance to give the Ducks some trouble this season when they meet in Stillwater for an early kickoff.
FPI Ranking: 50th
No matter the gap in talent between the two programs, Oregon and Boise State always play a tight game. The Ducks and Broncos will open the season in Eugene, but Boise State still doesn't have a roster that stands up well next to Oregon's, so it's a game the Ducks should be able to use to launch their season on the right foot.
FPI Ranking: 39th
Illinois is a bit of a wild card in the Big Ten this season, with so much of their ceiling to be determined by how Katin Houser fares at quarterback. The Illini will be fresh off a bye when they host the Ducks, so Oregon could be looking at a trap scenario.
FPI Ranking: 30th
As long as Moore is under center, it won't be a revenge game for Dylan Raiola against Nebraska. However, the Cornhuskers will come to Autzen Stadium in a tough situation. Just one week after hosting Indiana and one week before the bye, the Cornhuskers could limp into Eugene.
FPI Ranking: 26th
Senior day in Eugene will close out a daunting month of November for the Ducks. Washington could find itself higher in the FPI rankings by the time this matchup rolls around, which could boost Oregon's strength of schedule and give the Ducks a chance to add to their resume one final time.
FPI Ranking: 15th
Michigan makes the trip to Autzen for the first time since 2003, when the Ducks knocked off the No. 3-ranked Wolverines. Michigan is led by a familiar foe in Kyle Whittingham, and figures to be more of a contender within the Big Ten this season. A battle between Detroit-born quarterbacks Bryce Underwood and Dante Moore just adds more anticipation.
FPI Ranking: 13th
An early-season trip to Los Angeles to open conference play will be an early indicator for how the Ducks have grown in big games. USC wants nothing more than to beat Oregon for the first time since 2016. This one is circled on the calendar as the latest installment of a rivalry that only continues to grow, particularly on the recruiting trail.
FPI Ranking: 1st
To no one's surprise, a November trip to Ohio State is the toughest game on the schedule for the Ducks. The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in ESPN's FPI, thanks to a healthy combination of returning talent and strong recruiting.
Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Ranking Oregon’s matchup difficulty, according to FPI
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Based on the FPI, the Oregon Ducks are one of the favorites to win the national championship, holding a good chance to get to the Big Ten Championship game and make another deep run in the College Football Playoff. However, it won't be easy to get there. The Ducks have a tougher schedule this season, with challenging road trips within conference play on the docket, as well as a pair of non-conference tests to start the season.
The FPI has high hopes for the Ducks this season, but the path to the national championship won't be easy. Let's rank all of Oregon's opponents this season according to ESPN's FPI rankings.
11. Michigan State Spartans
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FPI Ranking: 65th
Not much is expected of Michigan State this season, but they fall at an interesting spot in Oregon's schedule, between home matchups against Michigan and Washington. The game is also on a Friday night, so the Ducks will be on short rest following physical matchups against Ohio State and Michigan.
10. UCLA Bruins
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FPI Ranking: 64th
Bob Chesney got stomped by Oregon in the College Football Playoff last season while leading James Madison, but he did manage to put up 34 points and over 500 yards of offense. Now, coming to UCLA with some better talent, including Nico Iamaleava under center, Chesney could test the Ducks again in his second trip to Eugene. However, Oregon does have the benefit of a bye before the game.
9. Northwestern Wildcats
FPI Ranking: 60th
Halloween at Autzen will bring Chip Kelly back to Eugene as the offensive coordinator for Northwestern. The Wildcats have improved, but still are not on par with the Ducks to give them enough trouble to be worried in a raucous atmosphere.
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys
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FPI Ranking: 54th
Oklahoma State isn't one to look past this season. The Ducks blasted the Cowboys 66-3 last season, but now under new leadership with a completely reworked roster, the Cowboys have a chance to give the Ducks some trouble this season when they meet in Stillwater for an early kickoff.
7. Boise State Broncos
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FPI Ranking: 50th
No matter the gap in talent between the two programs, Oregon and Boise State always play a tight game. The Ducks and Broncos will open the season in Eugene, but Boise State still doesn't have a roster that stands up well next to Oregon's, so it's a game the Ducks should be able to use to launch their season on the right foot.
6. Illinois Fighting Illini
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FPI Ranking: 39th
Illinois is a bit of a wild card in the Big Ten this season, with so much of their ceiling to be determined by how Katin Houser fares at quarterback. The Illini will be fresh off a bye when they host the Ducks, so Oregon could be looking at a trap scenario.
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers
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FPI Ranking: 30th
As long as Moore is under center, it won't be a revenge game for Dylan Raiola against Nebraska. However, the Cornhuskers will come to Autzen Stadium in a tough situation. Just one week after hosting Indiana and one week before the bye, the Cornhuskers could limp into Eugene.
4. Washington Huskies
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FPI Ranking: 26th
Senior day in Eugene will close out a daunting month of November for the Ducks. Washington could find itself higher in the FPI rankings by the time this matchup rolls around, which could boost Oregon's strength of schedule and give the Ducks a chance to add to their resume one final time.
3. Michigan Wolverines
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FPI Ranking: 15th
Michigan makes the trip to Autzen for the first time since 2003, when the Ducks knocked off the No. 3-ranked Wolverines. Michigan is led by a familiar foe in Kyle Whittingham, and figures to be more of a contender within the Big Ten this season. A battle between Detroit-born quarterbacks Bryce Underwood and Dante Moore just adds more anticipation.
2. USC Trojans
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FPI Ranking: 13th
An early-season trip to Los Angeles to open conference play will be an early indicator for how the Ducks have grown in big games. USC wants nothing more than to beat Oregon for the first time since 2016. This one is circled on the calendar as the latest installment of a rivalry that only continues to grow, particularly on the recruiting trail.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
FPI Ranking: 1st
To no one's surprise, a November trip to Ohio State is the toughest game on the schedule for the Ducks. The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in ESPN's FPI, thanks to a healthy combination of returning talent and strong recruiting.
Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Ranking Oregon’s matchup difficulty, according to FPI
Continue reading...
