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Brad Holmes has built one of the NFL’s strongest drafting resumes since taking over as the Detroit Lions’ general manager in 2021. Over six draft classes, Holmes has selected 43 players, transforming Detroit from a rebuilding franchise into a legit contender.
However, the recent release of former first-round pick Terrion Arnold raises an interesting question: Who has been Holmes’ best draft pick, and who has been his worst?
The easy answer for the best pick would be players such as Penei Sewell, Jahmyr Gibbs or Aidan Hutchinson. All three have become stars and are among the league’s best at their respective positions. Still, each was selected in the top 12 of the first round, where elite production is expected. While Sewell has earned three consecutive first-team All-Pro selections through five seasons and certainly has an argument regardless of draft position, value has to be considered when evaluating Holmes’ greatest selection.
Several other players deserve honorable mentions. Kerby Joseph was drafted in the third round and has already earned first-team All-Pro honors, making him one of the biggest steals of the 2022 NFL Draft. Brian Branch has quickly developed into one of the NFL’s top safeties, while Jack Campbell earned his first first-team All-Pro selection in his third season. Jameson Williams has continued to improve each year and appears to be approaching elite status, although he has yet to earn All-Pro recognition. The 2026 rookie class is excluded from consideration because those players have not yet appeared in an NFL game.
When all factors are considered, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands above the rest.
Selected in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, St. Brown has far exceeded every expectation. He has earned two first-team All-Pro selections and one second-team All-Pro honor while developing into one of the league’s most elite wide receivers. This season, he is also on pace to become the third-leading receiver in Lions franchise history. Landing a player of that caliber in the fourth round represents exceptional value, giving St. Brown the edge over even Sewell as Holmes’ best overall draft selection.
Choosing Holmes’ worst draft pick is much more difficult.
Before Arnold’s release, there was no obvious answer because Holmes has done an excellent job finding players who have contributed to Detroit’s success. However, Arnold’s departure changes the discussion. The former first-round pick never had the opportunity to establish himself after legal issues led to his release from the organization. While those circumstances were largely off the field and not necessarily a reflection of Holmes’ scouting process, the outcome still makes Arnold one of the least successful draft selections of the Holmes era.
There are other candidates as well.
Ennis Rakestraw Jr., a second-round pick in 2024, has appeared in only eight games entering this season. Injuries have limited his development, but if he fails to make a significant impact this year, he could begin to enter bust territory.
Josh Paschal is another possibility. Drafted in the second round in 2022, Paschal was expected to become a reliable pass rusher opposite Hutchinson. Instead, injuries and inconsistent production limited him to five sacks in 36 games before he was released earlier this offseason.
Levi Onwuzurike also deserves mention. The 2021 second-round pick has played in 42 games with 10 starts, recording 3.5 sacks and 68 tackles over five seasons. Although he remains on the roster, he could still be a cut candidate before the regular season.
No general manager hits on every draft pick, but Holmes’ success rate has been remarkable. Finding stars such as St. Brown, Joseph and Branch outside the first round has helped build one of the NFL’s most talented rosters and far outweighs the handful of draft picks that failed to meet expectations.
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However, the recent release of former first-round pick Terrion Arnold raises an interesting question: Who has been Holmes’ best draft pick, and who has been his worst?
The easy answer for the best pick would be players such as Penei Sewell, Jahmyr Gibbs or Aidan Hutchinson. All three have become stars and are among the league’s best at their respective positions. Still, each was selected in the top 12 of the first round, where elite production is expected. While Sewell has earned three consecutive first-team All-Pro selections through five seasons and certainly has an argument regardless of draft position, value has to be considered when evaluating Holmes’ greatest selection.
Several other players deserve honorable mentions. Kerby Joseph was drafted in the third round and has already earned first-team All-Pro honors, making him one of the biggest steals of the 2022 NFL Draft. Brian Branch has quickly developed into one of the NFL’s top safeties, while Jack Campbell earned his first first-team All-Pro selection in his third season. Jameson Williams has continued to improve each year and appears to be approaching elite status, although he has yet to earn All-Pro recognition. The 2026 rookie class is excluded from consideration because those players have not yet appeared in an NFL game.
When all factors are considered, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands above the rest.
Selected in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, St. Brown has far exceeded every expectation. He has earned two first-team All-Pro selections and one second-team All-Pro honor while developing into one of the league’s most elite wide receivers. This season, he is also on pace to become the third-leading receiver in Lions franchise history. Landing a player of that caliber in the fourth round represents exceptional value, giving St. Brown the edge over even Sewell as Holmes’ best overall draft selection.
Choosing Holmes’ worst draft pick is much more difficult.
Before Arnold’s release, there was no obvious answer because Holmes has done an excellent job finding players who have contributed to Detroit’s success. However, Arnold’s departure changes the discussion. The former first-round pick never had the opportunity to establish himself after legal issues led to his release from the organization. While those circumstances were largely off the field and not necessarily a reflection of Holmes’ scouting process, the outcome still makes Arnold one of the least successful draft selections of the Holmes era.
There are other candidates as well.
Ennis Rakestraw Jr., a second-round pick in 2024, has appeared in only eight games entering this season. Injuries have limited his development, but if he fails to make a significant impact this year, he could begin to enter bust territory.
Josh Paschal is another possibility. Drafted in the second round in 2022, Paschal was expected to become a reliable pass rusher opposite Hutchinson. Instead, injuries and inconsistent production limited him to five sacks in 36 games before he was released earlier this offseason.
Levi Onwuzurike also deserves mention. The 2021 second-round pick has played in 42 games with 10 starts, recording 3.5 sacks and 68 tackles over five seasons. Although he remains on the roster, he could still be a cut candidate before the regular season.
No general manager hits on every draft pick, but Holmes’ success rate has been remarkable. Finding stars such as St. Brown, Joseph and Branch outside the first round has helped build one of the NFL’s most talented rosters and far outweighs the handful of draft picks that failed to meet expectations.
Continue reading...
