Phil Steele and Bill Connelly reveal their rankings for UNC football

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This week, college sports writers Phil Steele and Bill Connelly revealed their team rankings for the 2026 college football season. Steele authors the annual publication of Phil Steele’s College Football Preview since 1995, a 350+ page behemoth that does a deep dive into every team’s two deep and the challenges of their coming season. Connelly’s passion for college football analytics produced multiple books, a predictive metric known as SP+, and a large online audience that eventually attracted the attention of ESPN, where Connelly recently previewed every FBS team and conference.

Both sets of previews rank every team in the FBS. Preseason rankings can produce some glorious misfires, such as Steele’s pick of Penn State at 1, Clemson at 6, Florida at 10, and UNC at 57 last season. Connelly had those three at 3, 8, 14, and 54, respectively. Two of those teams fired their coaches, and another seemed ready to after the Clemson game. Still, these two bring a tremendous amount of experience and knowledge of the game to their insights, and both tend to be right more often than not. So, where does UNC and its opponents land in their rankings?

Steele puts UNC at 60 in his rankings. Within the ACC, Steele ranks 12 teams ahead of UNC, with only Syracuse, Stanford, Cal, and Boston College ranked lower. Connelly has UNC at 57, although he places Cal one spot higher at 56. Both analysts have UNC in the dead center of the FBS bell curve, the very definition of “average.” Both have UNC near the bottom of the ACC at 12th and 13th.

So, how does an average football team fare against a tough schedule? That often results in a losing record. UNC in 2026 will be nearly $100 million into the Bill Belichick experiment, hoping for enough breaks to get to six or seven wins. A look at the schedule and the projected strength of the opponents partly explains why.

Opponent	Steele	Connelly
TCU	37	34
Clemson	24	23
Notre Dame	1	3
Pitt	28	41
Duke	53	44
Syracuse	67	69
Miami	9	8
UConn	128	107
Louisville	36	27
Virginia	39	40
NC State	52	47

Both analysts rank nine opponents higher than UNC, with two ranked lower.

Last season’s schedule was one of the easiest UNC’s faced in awhile. This season’s could end up being the most difficult in two decades or more. TCU last season ended up being the Heels toughest opponent, according to all three major metrics (FEI, FPI, and SP+). The Horned Frogs finished at 32 in the first two and 37 in the third. This season, TCU, forecast to finish in the 30s again, on paper will be UNC’s fifth or six toughest opponent.

To get a better sense of the challenge presented by UNC’s 2026 schedule, use the rankings above to separate the opponents into tiers of likelihood. The number in parentheses indicates the statistical probability of wins in that tier.

The “Nope” Tier (0)​

Notre Dame and Miami. These teams could fumble the ball in the end zone twice, handing the Heels two touchdowns, and still walk out of Kenan Stadium with a comfortable win. The Hurricanes and Fighting Irish have the much better resources, players, coaching staffs, and general managers. UNC beating one of these opponents would be the upset of the year.

The “Puncher’s Chance” Tier (1)​

TCU, Clemson, Pitt, Louisville, Virginia. This group will likely define the season for the Heels, possibly even determining Belichick’s fate. Four of them will have new starters at QB, and two of them will have new offensive coordinators. All could end the season appreciably lower than their preseason rankings. TCU’s installing an offense heavily dependent on crisp execution, which can take a few games to achieve. Clemson entered last season with a team expected to compete for the national title and stumbled to a 7-6 record. Pitt next season depends on Mason Heintschel building on his freshman flashes rather than suffering a sophomore slump. Louisville can be hit or miss week to week. Virginia’s hoping for two consecutive years of success built on the transfer portal, which can be dangerous.

Losing all five would leave UNC needing to sweep the next two tiers just to finish 5-7. UNC needs at least two wins in this tier to give Belichick a chance at a winning season.

The “Coin Flip” Tier (1.5)​

Duke, Syracuse, NC State. Evenly matched teams usually come down a stroke of luck via turnover, injury, or officiating. Duke and State lost some key pieces via the transfer portal. Syracuse hopes Steve Angeli has no lingering issues from the Achilles injury that sent the Orange off a cliff last season. State gets to find out if CJ Daniels can carry a team. Duke gets to find out what happens when it loses its QB and best receiver to Miami on the last day of the transfer portal. The fact UNC’s in the same rankings ball park with these three teams, in year two of Bill Belichick, seems an indictment. UNC needs to win all three of these to have a chance at a winning season.

The “Just Fire Him Now” Tier (2)​

ETSU and UConn. These games should be wins even with a subpar effort from UNC. If somehow UNC loses either game, it likely spells the end of the Belichick experiment. ETSU will be an average FCS squad, and UConn lost all its coaches and best players from last season’s over-achieving 9-4 squad that beat Duke. There’s just no excuse to losing games to these teams, not in year two of a coaching staff being paid top dollar and not after the disaster they put on the field last season.

That’s 4.5 wins based on probabilities, which just happens to be the wins total offered by the sports books.

It’s important to note that these national rankings can be bit misleading. The gap between Oregon at #2 (in both) and Pitt at #28/41 is larger than the gap between Pitt and UNC at #60/57. The teams above 30 and below 90 tend to be a pack, with not much at all differentiating the teams ranked 40-80. In theory, a team with a “decided schematic advantage,” a NFL GOAT, should have the coaching to win those games at a rate above replacement level. And that’s where UNC’s hope of a winning season in 2026 entirely rests.

What are your thoughts on these rankings and UNC’s upcoming football season?

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