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Patriots vs. Bills AFC East Outlook: Is New England Really the Team to Beat in 2026? originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
For years, the AFC East conversation started in Buffalo.
That changed in 2025.
The Patriots did not just sneak past the Bills. New England finished 14-3, won the AFC East and reached the Super Bowl in Mike Vrabel’s first season as head coach. Buffalo was still very good at 12-5, but the division no longer belonged to Josh Allen’s team by default. The Patriots finished two games clear of the Bills, while the Dolphins went 7-10 and the Jets finished 3-14.
MORE: Patriots Training Camp Schedule: Dates, Public Practices and Preseason Games
Now the question going into 2026 is simple: Are the Patriots really the team to beat in the AFC East?
The short answer is yes — but it is not by a lot. New England has earned that spot, but Buffalo is close enough that this still feels more like a heavyweight race than a runaway.
AFC East standings: Patriots passed the Bills in 2025
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The Patriots’ rise happened fast.
New England went from 4-13 in 2024 to 14-3 in 2025, completing a 10-win turnaround that tied the largest single-season improvement in NFL history. The Patriots also won their first AFC East title since 2019 and entered the playoffs as one of the AFC’s top teams.
That kind of jump usually comes with a little skepticism. Was it real? Was it schedule-driven? Can it happen again?
In New England’s case, the argument is easier to buy because the improvement started at quarterback.
Drake Maye became one of the league’s best players in his second season. He threw for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 72.0 percent of his passes with a 113.5 passer rating.
The Patriots are not trying to protect a limited quarterback with defense and field position. They have a franchise quarterback coming off an MVP-caliber season, and they spent the offseason adding help around him.
New England acquired A.J. Brown from the Eagles, signed Romeo Doubs and Alijah Vera-Tucker, and added first-round tackle Caleb Lomu. The Patriots also brought in veteran safety Kevin Byard III and other depth pieces.
That is why the Patriots have the best case as the division favorite. They won it last year, upgraded important parts of the roster and still have a young quarterback with room to grow.
Patriots vs. Bills: Why Buffalo is still New England’s biggest threat
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Calling the Patriots the team to beat does not mean the Bills are going away.
Buffalo still has the most proven quarterback in the division in Josh Allen. He has won an MVP, carried the Bills through multiple playoff runs and remains the reason Buffalo can beat almost anyone.
The Bills also responded to losing ground by giving Allen another weapon. Buffalo acquired wide receiver DJ Moore from the Bears during the offseason, calling him an instant-impact addition for Allen. The Patriots-Bills race may come down to which quarterback has the better support system.
Maye now has Brown, Doubs, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and TreVeyon Henderson. Allen has Moore, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook and a system built around his ability to stress defenses as both a passer and runner.
The head-to-head games should also carry real weight.
The Patriots visit the Bills on Oct. 4, then host Buffalo on Dec. 6. That second meeting comes late enough in the season that it could have major division implications.
That is the biggest reason this division should still feel close. New England has the better recent result, but Buffalo has too much quarterback talent and too much experience to treat 2025 like the end of the conversation.
If the Patriots are the new favorite, the Bills are still the team most capable of taking the division right back.
Where do the Dolphins and Jets fit in the AFC East race?
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We say the AFC East is a two-team race until proven otherwise, but Miami and New York are not simply running back the same teams from 2025.
The Dolphins completely changed their quarterback situation. Miami released Tua Tagovailoa and signed Malik Willis, while also moving on from Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick during a major roster reset.
That makes Miami difficult to project. There is talent on the roster, but the Fins are entering a new era at quarterback.
The Jets were aggressive, too.
New York acquired Geno Smith (yes, Geno freaking Smith) from Las Vegas, traded for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and added veteran linebacker Demario Davis. The Jets also drafted quarterback Cade Klubnik, giving the team both a veteran starter and a possible long-term option.
That should make both teams more interesting. Still, there is a long way from interesting to overtaking two teams that combined for 26 wins last season.
Are the Patriots the team to beat in the AFC East?
Yes, the Patriots should enter 2026 as the team to beat in the AFC East.
They won the division, reached the Super Bowl and improved the roster around Maye. That is enough to put New England ahead of Buffalo entering camp.
The Bills still have Allen. They still won 12 games last season. They still have the kind of quarterback who can flip the division race by himself.
The Patriots have earned the top spot for now. Keeping it will be harder.
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