- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,130,362
- Reaction score
- 59
Evaluating how well a team has drafted is an inherently subjective exercise, and it can be difficult to nail down what the measures of success should be.
One particular model has sought to do just that, and quantify the quality of drafting for all 32 NFL teams, and since Brian Gutekunst took the reins in 2018, the Packers have graded out very well.
According to StickToTheModel’s draft rankings, the Packers ranked third in the NFL in ‘draft value added’ since 2018, which measures how much value teams find in the draft, relative to where they pick.
The only two teams ranked ahead of Green Bay were the Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers. Gutekunst’s Packers also ranked second in ‘hit rate’ behind only the Bills. Hits are quantified as players who exceeded their expected performance based on where they were drafted.
The Packers are tied for the fifth-lowest ‘bust rate’ in Gutekunst’s tenure, which is a ‘top pick’ who has performed poorly or is out of the league.
Those are all impressive rankings, and speak to Gutekunst’s ability to find value and not strike out too often. He has certainly built a strong foundation via the draft since turning the page from the Aaron Rodgers era.
If there is an area he could stand to improve, it is in finding top tier players. It has been a regular talking point that Gutekunst has found good players consistently, but not enough great ones.
Green Bay has not fared terribly in the model’s ‘star rate’ rankings, sitting tied for 13th, but it is the weakest part of the team’s overall profile since 2018, and with no first-round pick in 2026 or 2027, their ranking is unlikely to improve any time soon.
Thinking about it logically, it makes sense that Green Bay has struggled to find true stars in the draft. Most star players in the NFL are going to come from the first round, and more so the early stages of it.
Since 2018, the Packers have picked in the top 12 of the draft only once – taking Rashan Gary 12th overall in 2019 – and have only selected in the top 20 another two times.
The Lions, who lead the rankings in star rate, have drafted in the top 12 a total of six times, including four picks in the top eight, and two more picks in the top 20.
Of the 12 teams who ranked above the Packers in star rate, only the Ravens did not pick in the top 12 at all, with the Steelers also only picking there once. Baltimore was the only team with fewer top 20 draft picks since 2018.
If the bar for picking in the first round is a star player, not just a good one, picking in the top half or bottom half of the round makes a world of difference.
There are only so many players viewed as first-round talents, and there is usually more consensus among the 32 teams as to who they are. Either you are in position to draft the blue-chip players, or you are not.
In the later rounds however, the lines blur and evaluations vary. This is where front offices can separate themselves, as the playing field is more even and more prospects are in play. Green Bay has consistently found value under those conditions.
Someone like Evan Williams is a great example. He was ranked 235th on the consensus big board ahead of the 2024 draft, and the Packers traded up to get him at 111. They were seemingly higher on Williams than most, and got it right.
On the whole, Gutekunst’s track record in the draft as a whole has been very credible, with the data backing that up, even if he has not found enough star players in Round 1.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers third best drafters in NFL under Brian Gutekunst per draft model
Continue reading...
One particular model has sought to do just that, and quantify the quality of drafting for all 32 NFL teams, and since Brian Gutekunst took the reins in 2018, the Packers have graded out very well.
According to StickToTheModel’s draft rankings, the Packers ranked third in the NFL in ‘draft value added’ since 2018, which measures how much value teams find in the draft, relative to where they pick.
The only two teams ranked ahead of Green Bay were the Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers. Gutekunst’s Packers also ranked second in ‘hit rate’ behind only the Bills. Hits are quantified as players who exceeded their expected performance based on where they were drafted.
The Packers are tied for the fifth-lowest ‘bust rate’ in Gutekunst’s tenure, which is a ‘top pick’ who has performed poorly or is out of the league.
Those are all impressive rankings, and speak to Gutekunst’s ability to find value and not strike out too often. He has certainly built a strong foundation via the draft since turning the page from the Aaron Rodgers era.
If there is an area he could stand to improve, it is in finding top tier players. It has been a regular talking point that Gutekunst has found good players consistently, but not enough great ones.
Green Bay has not fared terribly in the model’s ‘star rate’ rankings, sitting tied for 13th, but it is the weakest part of the team’s overall profile since 2018, and with no first-round pick in 2026 or 2027, their ranking is unlikely to improve any time soon.
Thinking about it logically, it makes sense that Green Bay has struggled to find true stars in the draft. Most star players in the NFL are going to come from the first round, and more so the early stages of it.
Since 2018, the Packers have picked in the top 12 of the draft only once – taking Rashan Gary 12th overall in 2019 – and have only selected in the top 20 another two times.
The Lions, who lead the rankings in star rate, have drafted in the top 12 a total of six times, including four picks in the top eight, and two more picks in the top 20.
Of the 12 teams who ranked above the Packers in star rate, only the Ravens did not pick in the top 12 at all, with the Steelers also only picking there once. Baltimore was the only team with fewer top 20 draft picks since 2018.
If the bar for picking in the first round is a star player, not just a good one, picking in the top half or bottom half of the round makes a world of difference.
There are only so many players viewed as first-round talents, and there is usually more consensus among the 32 teams as to who they are. Either you are in position to draft the blue-chip players, or you are not.
In the later rounds however, the lines blur and evaluations vary. This is where front offices can separate themselves, as the playing field is more even and more prospects are in play. Green Bay has consistently found value under those conditions.
Someone like Evan Williams is a great example. He was ranked 235th on the consensus big board ahead of the 2024 draft, and the Packers traded up to get him at 111. They were seemingly higher on Williams than most, and got it right.
On the whole, Gutekunst’s track record in the draft as a whole has been very credible, with the data backing that up, even if he has not found enough star players in Round 1.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers third best drafters in NFL under Brian Gutekunst per draft model
Continue reading...
