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There is no one correct way to assess the success of a team’s draft class, or a general manager’s success in drafting over time, but Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst recently provided a barometer for evaluation.
Speaking at the combine last month, Gutekunst claimed: “League-wide, teams (re-sign) about one and a half players from each draft class."
If that is a fair measuring stick for how well a general manager has drafted compared to the rest of the league, how is Gutekunst doing?
From his first draft in 2018, only Jaire Alexander got a second contract with the Packers. Rashan Gary and Elgton Jenkins were both extended from the following draft, while Jordan Love was the only player to be re-signed among the 2020 class.
Only Isaiah McDuffie was extended by Green Bay from the 2021 draft. The evaluation of the 2022 class is not yet complete, as Devonte Wyatt is still technically on his rookie deal having had his fifth-year option picked up. However, Zach Tom, Christian Watson and Sean Rhyan have all been given a contract beyond their rookie deal from that class already.
Based on the information we have now on Gutekunst’s drafts between 2018 and 2022, eight players have been extended from those five years, for an average of 1.6 per class, just above the league average. If Wyatt gets extended, the number will jump to 1.8.
There is more context to the discussion though, some of which goes in Gutekunst’s favor and some which goes against him.
On the negative side of the ledger, let’s look at an extension like McDuffie’s, which was only a two-year, $8 million deal. It is helping Gutekunst’s batting average and of course is a success story for a sixth-round pick, but McDuffie is hardly one of the faces of the franchise.
Rhyan is interesting. He is another good example of perseverance and will be the starting center next year. But it is not based on much evidence that he can play the position well and his extension only makes him the seventh-highest paid center in the NFL. It is not a top-of-the-market deal.
Watson’s extension was just for one-year to give him and the team some insurance as he returned from an ACL injury, so it is not a true re-signing.
However, Gutekunst should get huge kudos for doing that deal given what Alec Pierce just got paid in free agency, and Watson’s performance in 2025 should mean a legitimate long-term pact is coming. Gutekunst deserves more credit for this one than using it as a caveat against him.
So far, only three of the seven first-round picks Green Bay’s GM made between 2018 and 2022 have earned contract extensions with the team, although Wyatt could improve that to four of seven. Only two of his five second-round picks have been extended.
It is unfair to knock him too much for that though, as good players can come from any round, evidenced by someone like Tom. As long as teams are finding players worth keeping around, they do not care what round they find them in.
Looking at more recent classes, Gutekunst also looks to have hit on Tucker Kraft, Edgerrin Cooper, Javon Bullard and Evan Williams. Kraft is now eligible for an extension and will be a no-brainer, while the others will have to wait until next year.
There are still other players who could get extensions as well, such as Lukas Van Ness, who is likely to have his fifth-year option picked up, and Jayden Reed.
When talking about the 1.5 extensions average, Gutekunst was not necessarily using it as a benchmark, more so discussing how the salary cap limits the amount of draft picks teams can retain on second contracts.
The Packers cannot pay everyone, and Gutekunst should get credit for his draft picks signing lucrative deals with other teams.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jon Runyan Jr., Eric Stokes, Cole Van Lanen, Quay Walker, Romeo Doubs, Kingsley Enagbare and Rasheed Walker were all draft picks of his who have since signed contracts elsewhere for at least $10 million per year.
Most of those were Day 3 picks who provided excellent value for Green Bay during their rookie deals and in some cases earned them a compensatory draft pick after leaving.
Like any GM, Gutekunst has his misses, and he may not be consistently finding stars in the first and second round, which is tough when consistently picking towards the back end.
But he has found good football players on all three days of the draft, probably still has not gotten enough credit for nailing the Jordan Love pick, and his hit rate is above average overall.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: How well does Packers GM Brian Gutekunst draft vs. rest of NFL?
Continue reading...
Speaking at the combine last month, Gutekunst claimed: “League-wide, teams (re-sign) about one and a half players from each draft class."
If that is a fair measuring stick for how well a general manager has drafted compared to the rest of the league, how is Gutekunst doing?
From his first draft in 2018, only Jaire Alexander got a second contract with the Packers. Rashan Gary and Elgton Jenkins were both extended from the following draft, while Jordan Love was the only player to be re-signed among the 2020 class.
Only Isaiah McDuffie was extended by Green Bay from the 2021 draft. The evaluation of the 2022 class is not yet complete, as Devonte Wyatt is still technically on his rookie deal having had his fifth-year option picked up. However, Zach Tom, Christian Watson and Sean Rhyan have all been given a contract beyond their rookie deal from that class already.
Based on the information we have now on Gutekunst’s drafts between 2018 and 2022, eight players have been extended from those five years, for an average of 1.6 per class, just above the league average. If Wyatt gets extended, the number will jump to 1.8.
There is more context to the discussion though, some of which goes in Gutekunst’s favor and some which goes against him.
On the negative side of the ledger, let’s look at an extension like McDuffie’s, which was only a two-year, $8 million deal. It is helping Gutekunst’s batting average and of course is a success story for a sixth-round pick, but McDuffie is hardly one of the faces of the franchise.
Rhyan is interesting. He is another good example of perseverance and will be the starting center next year. But it is not based on much evidence that he can play the position well and his extension only makes him the seventh-highest paid center in the NFL. It is not a top-of-the-market deal.
Watson’s extension was just for one-year to give him and the team some insurance as he returned from an ACL injury, so it is not a true re-signing.
However, Gutekunst should get huge kudos for doing that deal given what Alec Pierce just got paid in free agency, and Watson’s performance in 2025 should mean a legitimate long-term pact is coming. Gutekunst deserves more credit for this one than using it as a caveat against him.
So far, only three of the seven first-round picks Green Bay’s GM made between 2018 and 2022 have earned contract extensions with the team, although Wyatt could improve that to four of seven. Only two of his five second-round picks have been extended.
It is unfair to knock him too much for that though, as good players can come from any round, evidenced by someone like Tom. As long as teams are finding players worth keeping around, they do not care what round they find them in.
Looking at more recent classes, Gutekunst also looks to have hit on Tucker Kraft, Edgerrin Cooper, Javon Bullard and Evan Williams. Kraft is now eligible for an extension and will be a no-brainer, while the others will have to wait until next year.
There are still other players who could get extensions as well, such as Lukas Van Ness, who is likely to have his fifth-year option picked up, and Jayden Reed.
When talking about the 1.5 extensions average, Gutekunst was not necessarily using it as a benchmark, more so discussing how the salary cap limits the amount of draft picks teams can retain on second contracts.
The Packers cannot pay everyone, and Gutekunst should get credit for his draft picks signing lucrative deals with other teams.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jon Runyan Jr., Eric Stokes, Cole Van Lanen, Quay Walker, Romeo Doubs, Kingsley Enagbare and Rasheed Walker were all draft picks of his who have since signed contracts elsewhere for at least $10 million per year.
Most of those were Day 3 picks who provided excellent value for Green Bay during their rookie deals and in some cases earned them a compensatory draft pick after leaving.
Like any GM, Gutekunst has his misses, and he may not be consistently finding stars in the first and second round, which is tough when consistently picking towards the back end.
But he has found good football players on all three days of the draft, probably still has not gotten enough credit for nailing the Jordan Love pick, and his hit rate is above average overall.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: How well does Packers GM Brian Gutekunst draft vs. rest of NFL?
Continue reading...
