Oregon Ducks Softball: Women’s College World Series Pitching Comparison

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Oregon pitcher Taylour Spencer pitches in the rain as the Oregon Ducks host the Saint Mary’s Gaels in an NCAA regional on May 16, 2026, at Jane Sanders Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last summer when I looked at the performance statistics for softball, it was knowing that Oregon was a WCWS caliber team. This season… not so much. While there was a bit of downward trend in the hitting this past season I was skeptical is was enough to explain such a precipitous drop in post-season success, so it is time to take a look at the performance the Ducks’ pitchers.

I collected pitching data from Softball Statline and D1Softball for the teams who made the Women’s College World Series in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. Let’s review the statistics I compiled.

ERA – Earned Run Average estimates how many runs a pitcher will surrender in the course of a given game. It is computed by taking the total earned runs a pitcher gives up, dividing by innings pitches, then multiplying by 7.

BB7 – An estimate of how many walks a pitching staff gives up in a typical game (known as BB9 for baseball). This is found by taking the number of home runs a pitcher gives up, dividing by the number of innings pitched, and then multiplying the result by 7 for softball.

SO7 – Same as BB7, but this time estimating the number of strike outs a pitching staff gets per game.

WHIP – Walks Plus Hits per Inning Pitched adds the total number of base hits and walks a pitcher gives up, then divides by the number of innings pitched. The result estimates how many players a pitcher will allow on base in a typical inning.

FIP – Field Independent Pitching is meant to estimate a pitcher’s ERA if they experienced league average fielding throughout their time in the circle. The formula is a bit involved and has to be adjusted by a constant based on the observed data for a particular league (in this case NCAA DIV-1 Softball).

I computed weighted averages in these statistics for each team after censoring pitchers who had less than 40 innings in the circle. The chart below shows the central tendency and spread for each compared to Oregon the past two seasons.

Team	Season	ERA	BB7	SO7	WHIP	FIP
Oregon	2025	2.125	2.327	7.592	1.070	2.695
Oregon	2026	3.508	2.535	7.409	1.254	3.861
WCWS	Median	2.029	2.170	7	1.105	2.574
WCWS	Std Dev	0.657	0.541	1.410	0.184	0.857

No sugar coating it: Oregon’s pitching took a major step back in their second Big Ten season. The ERA change is the most gut wrenching as it relates directly to the score of games and moved the wrong direction two full standard deviations (by the WCWS standard). Things aren’t much better in the more advanced stats as both WHIP and FIP also went up by over a full standard deviation.

Let’s try to look at where in the lineup the decline occured. The Ducks had three returners in the circle this year (though Taylour Spencer just missed the cut off to be included in the team statistics last year. We’ll go by innings pitched in the 2026 season

Player	Season	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Lyndsey Grein	2025	187.2	1.070	2.130	2.690
Lyndsey Grein	2026	161.2	1.030	2.680	2.990

Grein was a rock her last two seasons. She was arguably over used in both 2025 and 2026 as injuries and a general lack of depth meant she spent more time in the circle than would maximize her efficiency. She did take a slight step back in WHIP and FIP during 2026, but nothing drastic for individual pitcher. Based on what observed in a number of games last season, I would say the most likely explanation for the difference in performance is that the staff was too hesitant to pull her when necessary because they often weren’t confident in their remaining options.

Player	Season	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Elise Sokolsky	2025	155.1	1.070	2.120	2.700
Elise Sokolsky	2026	86.0	1.400	4.070	4.770

Sokolsky’s health goes a long way in explaining the drop off in team pitching performance. In 2025 she was just as effective as Grein in most metrics, but she hurt her hamstring this past season. This both limited the amount of time she was available, and it seemed to affect her performance quite severely.

Player	Season	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Taylour Spencer	2025	39.2	1.510	4.060	4.480
Taylour Spencer	2026	63.0	1.480	4.560	3.850
Maddie Milhorn	2026	48.1	1.450	3.910	5.170

Between Sokolky’s lack of availability and the graduation of veteran Staci Chambers after 2025, Taylor Spencer saw increased use in 2026. Additionally, true freshman Maddie Milhorn saw a notable amount of action in the circle. Unfortunately Spencer’s sophomore slump continued into her junior season and Milhorn wasn’t much better (being much more dependent on fielding according to these numbers).

At the time of this writing the Ducks have lost reserve pitcher Rowan Thompson (who was in the circle a grand total of 3.2 innings the past two years and wasn’t included in these numbers) and taken a catcher from BYU via the portal. As such, the bullpen as of right now is only Spencer, Milhorn, and two incoming freshmen. I’d be shocked if Lombardi doesn’t bring in at least one transfer pitcher before the 2027 season, and frankly I’d prefer two.

It’s also worth noting that Oregon brought in Shannon Saile from UCF in the off season, and she served as the “day to day pitching coach” with the Knights the past two seasons. It remains to be seen if having a new voice in the room will notably change the teams approach to, or results from, their pitchers.

Do these numbers match what you saw watching the games, or are there subtleties they may be missing? Does Lombardi need a major shake up in how she manages/trains her pitchers or just minor refinement? Share your thoughts in the comments!

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