NCAA Tournament: Analyzing Villanova’s path to a No. 8 seed

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Villanova is officially back in the NCAA Tournament — and it was not an easy road.

It all began shortly after the 2024-25 season when it was announced that Kyle Neptune would not be back after three failed years with the Wildcats. The university proceeded with a hiring process to find a new coach and landed on Kevin Willard. After leading Maryland to the Sweet 16, Willard made his controversial exit and entered Villanova.

The next step was to reload the roster. Willard hit the transfer portal hard to land players like Bryce Lindsay and Duke Brennan. Acaden Lewis flipped from Kentucky and came over as well.

The season began with low expectations and that did not change early. Despite a competitive showing against BYU in the season opener, the Wildcats had not yet earned widespread respect. Villanova won seven games in a row through its non-conference slate before facing Michigan. A non-competitive performance against the Wolverines was expected early, but two wins followed that might have made you change expectations slightly.

Villanova defeated Wisconsin in a pseudo-neutral site game played in Milwaukee. The Wildcats followed that up with a comfortable road win against Seton Hall to begin Big East play. These would be the only Quad 1 wins for Villanova this season.

The Wildcats, picked seventh in the conference preseason, won the first three games before a home loss to Creighton, which turned out to be the worst loss in conference. Villanova would go on to win the rest of its Big East games against teams not named UConn and St. John’s.

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So, was Villanova seeded correctly?​


Villanova is entering the tournament coming off its worst loss of the year.

The Wildcats entered the Big East Tournament as the No. 3 seed with a potential semifinal rematch against UConn on the table. Instead, the Wildcats fell all over themselves on both ends in a double-digit loss to Georgetown, who entered as the 11th seed.

It was looking like the Wildcats were going to get a No. 7 seed entering the conference tournament. That would have likely been the case, although it has not been confirmed, if they beat Georgetown and fell to UConn in the semis. Instead, Villanova dropped a seed line into the No. 8.

This feels like the correct seed for the year that the Wildcats had.

Villanova will now take on Utah State in the West Region. It is currently a two-point underdog in Round 1 against the regular season and tournament champs in the Mountain West. And if a guess had to be made, Utah State will be a popular pick given the current perception of Villanova.

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What is a successful run for Villanova?​


This feels like an easy answer given the draw for Villanova.

The Wildcats need to do something that they did not do in the Big East Tournament — win a game. It will not be easy, but the perception of the Big East is down this year and Villanova needs to do its part and defeat a Mountain West team. From there, a matchup with Arizona would come in the second round.

A win in the tournament in year one of Willard would be considered a successful year. Villanova was picked seventh in the Big East to begin the year. The team won 24 games overall, 15-5 in the Big East. Villanova finished third in the regular season and was widely regarded as the clear third-best team in the conference all season. The biggest failure was the quarterfinal loss to Georgetown, which could be wiped away partially with a win over Utah State.

Overall, the season was a good one for Villanova. Willard has this program back on track and heading in the right direction after the massacre done over the last three years. On Sunday, Villanova had its name called and is back in the tournament. This will be the expectation moving forward at the bare minimum. On Friday, the Wildcats have a chance to cap off a successful season with a victory in the tournament.

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