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The NCAA baseball tournament is here and 64 teams are vying for the Men's College World Series title.
Regionals run from May 29 to June 1 in double-elimination brackets.
The Tennessean created an aggregate ranking using seven metrics — RPI, Warren Nolan Elo, Massey, KPI, Diamond Sports Ranking, PEAR Team Strength Rating and ARES. Based on the average ranking in these metrics, teams were ranked within their seeds to analyze each matchup.
Here are teams to watch and upsets to look out for:
UCLA was the wire-to-wire No. 1 team in many polls and is the No. 1 overall seed, but the Bruins might not be the best team in the field.
They're still No. 1 in RPI, but in every other metric, Georgia Tech ranks No. 1. If you believe in curses, that may be a good thing for the Yellow Jackets, as the No. 2 overall seed wins the championship more often than No. 1, and UCLA has failed to even get to Omaha as the No. 1 overall seed twice.
There are a few regionals that stand out as being particularly tough draws for the host teams.
The Lawrence Regional, hosted by Kansas, is atop the list. The 2-seed, Arkansas, is the top-rated 2-seed in the field and itself has a better rating than the Jayhawks. Northeastern, the 4-seed, rates as the best 4-seed in the tournament, and Missouri State, the eighth-best 3-seed, is no slouch (Arkansas lost to Missouri State in a midweek game earlier this season). There will be no easy games in this regional.
The Lincoln Regional, which features Nebraska along with 2-seed Ole Miss, 3-seed Arizona State and 4-seed South Dakota State, is tough for a different reason. The Jackrabbits are likely to be a non-factor, rating out as the second-worst 4-seed in the field, but the average rating of the 2- and 3-seeds is the best of any regional. Not only are Ole Miss (the third-best 2-seed) and Arizona State (the second-best 3-seed) strong teams, they both have an ace pitcher and a powerful offense. Teams with that profile tend to succeed in the postseason.
The regional with the highest combined quality of the top three seeds is the Chapel Hill Regional, featuring North Carolina, 2-seed Tennessee and 3-seed East Carolina. VCU, the third-best 4-seed, can't be overlooked. The Vols could be a difficult matchup for North Carolina, but they'll have to get past ECU first. Florida discovered last year that Pirates ace Ethan Norby is not an easy out.
The most favorable draw for a host team is by Florida State, which drew 2-seed Coastal Carolina (the 12th-best 2-seed), 3-seed Northern Illinois (the worst 3-seed) and 4-seed St. John's (the fourth-best 4-seed). It will be interesting to see if an explosive matchup ends up taking place between Wes Mendes, Florida State's ACC Pitcher of the Year, and Coast Carolina's Cameron Flukey.
UCLA also stands out with a favorable draw. The top seed got the weakest 2-seed in Virginia Tech and the 13th-ranked 3-seed in Cal Poly, though 4-seed Saint Mary's ranks third nationally with a .333 team batting average.
Comparing the rating of each 2-seed to the 1- and 3-seeds in the same regional, two 2-seeds in particular stand out as having a strong chance to pull the upset.
The first is Oregon State. Matched up with former Pac-12 foes Oregon and Washington State, the Beavers actually rate as the strongest team in this regional, though being without ace Dax Whitney complicates things.
The second team is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were sent to Tuscaloosa and will be matched against a weak 3-seed in USC Upstate. Oklahoma State also fits the bill of an upset candidate. Teams like Alabama that are pitching-focused with poor offensive production are often vulnerable to upsets by power-focused teams like Oklahoma State.
Among 3-seeds, the best upset candidates are a pair of underseeded Conference USA teams: Jacksonville State and Liberty. The Gamecocks are the top-ranked 3-seed and rate out better than Virginia, the 2-seed in the Hattiesburg Regional. Liberty could benefit from a weak 2-seed in Boston College in the Athens Regional.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X @aria_gerson.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA baseball tournament preview, regional upsets, teams to watch
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Regionals run from May 29 to June 1 in double-elimination brackets.
The Tennessean created an aggregate ranking using seven metrics — RPI, Warren Nolan Elo, Massey, KPI, Diamond Sports Ranking, PEAR Team Strength Rating and ARES. Based on the average ranking in these metrics, teams were ranked within their seeds to analyze each matchup.
Here are teams to watch and upsets to look out for:
Why UCLA may not be the favorite
UCLA was the wire-to-wire No. 1 team in many polls and is the No. 1 overall seed, but the Bruins might not be the best team in the field.
They're still No. 1 in RPI, but in every other metric, Georgia Tech ranks No. 1. If you believe in curses, that may be a good thing for the Yellow Jackets, as the No. 2 overall seed wins the championship more often than No. 1, and UCLA has failed to even get to Omaha as the No. 1 overall seed twice.
Which hosts are on upset alert?
There are a few regionals that stand out as being particularly tough draws for the host teams.
The Lawrence Regional, hosted by Kansas, is atop the list. The 2-seed, Arkansas, is the top-rated 2-seed in the field and itself has a better rating than the Jayhawks. Northeastern, the 4-seed, rates as the best 4-seed in the tournament, and Missouri State, the eighth-best 3-seed, is no slouch (Arkansas lost to Missouri State in a midweek game earlier this season). There will be no easy games in this regional.
The Lincoln Regional, which features Nebraska along with 2-seed Ole Miss, 3-seed Arizona State and 4-seed South Dakota State, is tough for a different reason. The Jackrabbits are likely to be a non-factor, rating out as the second-worst 4-seed in the field, but the average rating of the 2- and 3-seeds is the best of any regional. Not only are Ole Miss (the third-best 2-seed) and Arizona State (the second-best 3-seed) strong teams, they both have an ace pitcher and a powerful offense. Teams with that profile tend to succeed in the postseason.
The regional with the highest combined quality of the top three seeds is the Chapel Hill Regional, featuring North Carolina, 2-seed Tennessee and 3-seed East Carolina. VCU, the third-best 4-seed, can't be overlooked. The Vols could be a difficult matchup for North Carolina, but they'll have to get past ECU first. Florida discovered last year that Pirates ace Ethan Norby is not an easy out.
Florida State among teams that got the best draws
The most favorable draw for a host team is by Florida State, which drew 2-seed Coastal Carolina (the 12th-best 2-seed), 3-seed Northern Illinois (the worst 3-seed) and 4-seed St. John's (the fourth-best 4-seed). It will be interesting to see if an explosive matchup ends up taking place between Wes Mendes, Florida State's ACC Pitcher of the Year, and Coast Carolina's Cameron Flukey.
UCLA also stands out with a favorable draw. The top seed got the weakest 2-seed in Virginia Tech and the 13th-ranked 3-seed in Cal Poly, though 4-seed Saint Mary's ranks third nationally with a .333 team batting average.
Upset candidates to watch
Comparing the rating of each 2-seed to the 1- and 3-seeds in the same regional, two 2-seeds in particular stand out as having a strong chance to pull the upset.
The first is Oregon State. Matched up with former Pac-12 foes Oregon and Washington State, the Beavers actually rate as the strongest team in this regional, though being without ace Dax Whitney complicates things.
The second team is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were sent to Tuscaloosa and will be matched against a weak 3-seed in USC Upstate. Oklahoma State also fits the bill of an upset candidate. Teams like Alabama that are pitching-focused with poor offensive production are often vulnerable to upsets by power-focused teams like Oklahoma State.
Among 3-seeds, the best upset candidates are a pair of underseeded Conference USA teams: Jacksonville State and Liberty. The Gamecocks are the top-ranked 3-seed and rate out better than Virginia, the 2-seed in the Hattiesburg Regional. Liberty could benefit from a weak 2-seed in Boston College in the Athens Regional.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X @aria_gerson.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA baseball tournament preview, regional upsets, teams to watch
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