Most valuable kicker? Just look to Cards

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New York Times News Service
Dec. 25, 2004 06:45 PM

Peyton Manning. Terrell Owens. Curtis Martin. Neil Rackers.

Neil Rackers? Indeed.

Any discussion of the top NFL players at their position this season should include Rackers, a former high school soccer star who has quietly become one of the finest kickers in football. Because he does most of his work for the Cardinals in the Arizona desert, where victories are like water, some fans might not even recognize his name. Others might recall only his shaky three-year stint with the Cincinnati Bengals, which ended with his release at the start of last season.



This season, though, Rackers' foot has displayed power and grace. His kickoffs are the league's longest on average, and he became only the second kicker in NFL history to make three field goals of 50 or more yards in one game, giving the Cardinals a victory over Seattle that has helped keep their improbable playoff chances alive. He has also made 13 of 14 field-goal tries from less than 50 yards this season.

He has simply been the NFL's most valuable place-kicker in 2004, according to a measure that evaluates kickers based on the difficulty of the chances they have had.

His near anonymity points to the odd spot that kickers occupy in the football firmament. Everyone knows they can determine games, even entire seasons; two of the last three Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal with seconds left. One play can make or break a kicker's name. Think Scott Norwood.

Yet ask somebody who the best kickers are today, and a perplexed look followed by a couple of guesses will most likely be the answer.

In decades past, kickers' undersized reputations may have matched their importance during a season. But field goals now account for almost one out of every five points scored, up from one in eight 30 years ago, largely because kickers have improved perhaps more than any other position player.

Jan Stenerud, whose career ended in 1985 and who is the only kicker in the Hall of Fame, made 67 percent of his field-goal attempts. This season, 29 of 31 regular kickers are doing better than that. Across the league, more than 81 percent of field-goal tries have been good.

"The training is getting better; the coaching is probably a little better," said Nick Lowery, the retired Chiefs and Jets kicker, who has appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot. "But the No. 1 thing is that the pool of kickers is getting bigger."

The explosion of youth soccer leagues deserves much of the credit, and Rackers - who is 28 and a solid 6 feet 1 and 206 pounds - is one of the success stories. Born in soccer-mad St. Louis, he turned down Division I soccer scholarships to be a kicker at Illinois.

He does not have the NFL's best field-goal percentage. That title goes to Adam Vinatieri of the New England Patriots, but Rackers' percentage looks worse largely because of the difficulty of his kicks. Three of his four misses have come on tries of more than 50 yards.

A fairer measure looks at how a kicker has done compared with how other kickers would have done from the same distances. Rackers has made all four of his kicks from 40 to 49 yards, for example. The bottom tier of NFL kickers typically makes less than 40 percent of such kicks. So out of 12 possible points on the four field goal tries, those kickers would score about five points on average. Rackers scored all 12, making him seven points more valuable from that distance than the sort of kickers available as midseason free-agent replacements.

A similar analysis can be done for kickoffs. A book called "The Hidden Game of Football" notes that 25 yards of field position is worth roughly two points on average, based on which team is most likely to score next and whether that score is a touchdown or a field goal.

Rackers' typical kickoff has left opponents starting just inside their 24, 7 yards - or about half a point - better than the typical effort from a weak kicker. Add Rackers' kickoff and field-goal totals, and he has been worth 66 more points than a replacement kicker. (A similar analysis by the Web site FootballOutsiders.com, which controls for weather and some other factors, ranks the Philadelphia Eagles' David Akers first, but it also makes Rackers look excellent.)

The biggest question about Rackers is whether he is a one-season wonder. Compared with quarterbacks or linebackers, kickers appear in few plays during a season, and their performance can vary greatly.

Just look at the Indianapolis Colts' Mike Vanderjagt. Last season, he did not miss a field-goal attempt. This season, perhaps the nicest thing to say about him is that he is no Neil Rackers.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardinals/articles/1225cardskicker-ON.html
 
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