Missouri State baseball bracketology: Where Bears stand in 2025 NCAA Tournament projections

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Missouri State baseball can win a regular-season championship this week, which would set it up to be in a good position at next week's conference tournament when a bid to the 2025 NCAA Tournament is on the line.

The first-place Bears (27-22, 17-7 MVC) will conclude the regular season with a three-game series at second-place Murray State, starting with Thursday and Friday 5 p.m. games and concluding with a 1 p.m. finale on Saturday.

The Bears are one win from clinching at least a share of the Missouri Valley Conference's regular season championship during their last season before joining Conference USA next season. There are scenarios in which the Bears can clinch the No. 1, 2 or 3 seed, with Southern Illinois two games behind the Bears.

A top-two finish in the MVC regular season standings would lead to an automatic one-year contract extension for first-year Bears coach Joey Hawkins. He is currently signed through the 2028 season.

Missouri State still needs to win next week's MVC Tournament in Normal, Illinois, to make the NCAA Tournament. The Bears' RPI sits at No. 185, which is too low to be considered for an at-large bid.

The NCAA Tournament begins May 30 with the College World Series scheduled to end June 23. Below is a look at where the Bears stand in three postseason projections.

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Missouri State baseball bracketology​


Aria Gerson with the USA TODAY Sports Network released her second edition of bracket projections on Monday, and Missouri State is the No. 4 seed in the Austin Regional. Gerson has the Bears matched up with Texas, which she has as the No. 1 overall seed, along with Duke and Kansas. That quadrant would be matched with the regional hosted by No. 16 Tennessee.

Baseball America's latest projections, released Wednesday, have Missouri State as the No. 4 seed in the Eugene Regional, hosted by No. 10 overall seed Oregon. The quadrant also includes Duke and Kansas State, and would be matched up with the Vanderbilt-hosted regional.

D1Baseball's projections, released Tuesday, have Missouri State in the Tuscaloosa Regional, hosted by No. 14 overall seed Alabama. The Bears would also be matched up with Southern Mississippi and Arizona State. The winner of the quadrant would then play against the winner of the Fayetteville Regional.

All projections have Missouri State winning next week's Missouri Valley Conference Tournament for the league's automatic bid. The Valley is considered a one-bid league in 2025.

Missouri State baseball will take on Murray State for MVC regular-season championship​


Murray State enters the weekend series after winning two of three against Belmont, which entered that series having won its previous seven games. The Racers haven't lost an MVC series since their first two Valley weekends of the year against Evansville and Illinois State.

The Racers have two of the top starters in the MVC: Isaac Silva and Nic Schutte. Both have ERAs of less than 3.50 while allowing opposing batters to a .239 average or worse. The team combines for the best ERA in the Valley.

This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Missouri State baseball bracket projections for 2025 NCAA Tournament

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