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• What: Michigan State at Minnesota
• When: 7 p.m. ET Wednesday
• Where: Williams Arena, Minneapolis
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 196 (MSU broadcast), 385 (Minnesota broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 19-3 overall and 9-2 in the Big Ten, and is ranked No. 10 by both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 11 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Minnesota is 10-12 overall, 3-8 in the Big Ten and unranked by the AP and Coaches Poll. The Gophers are No. 83 in the NET rankings and No. 80 via Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -7.5
• Coaches:Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 756-305 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Minnesota — Niko Medved is 232–184 in his 13th season as a head coach. This is his first season with the Gophers, after seven seasons at Colorado State and, before that, stints at Drake and Furman.
• Series: MSU leads 68-59 all-time. MSU won both meetings last season. This is the only scheduled meeting this season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.5
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 13.1
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.4
SG (99) Jordan Scott (6-7) 4.7
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 14.9
Minnesota
F (5) Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (6-8) 13.4
F (3) Bobby Durkin (6-7) 9.3
F (10) Cade Tyson (6-7) 19.9
G (1) Isaac Asuma (6-3) 10.4
G (6) Langston Reynolds (6-4) 11.0
• MSU update: The Spartans have to dust themselves off after Friday’s 83-71 home loss to Michigan to make sure they don’t let a tough defeat become a skid, especially with a visit from Illinois looming on Saturday. MSU is still the No. 1-rated defense in the country, per kenpom, as well as the best defensive rebounding team — and in the top six in offensive rebounding — so panicking would be an overreaction, even if Michigan put a dent in the Spartans’ perceived ceiling. Turnovers have become a significant issue. MSU is turning the ball over on 1 of 5 possessions in Big Ten play, the worst percentage in the league. Half of those are non-steal turnovers (largely unforced), which also leads the league.
There’s been some good and bad of late. Point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. has scored 60 total points in MSU’s last two games, which followed a 17-point, 17-assist game against Maryland. Tom Izzo would prefer that rather than the high point totals. While Fears is on a scoring tear, MSU could use him to get some other guys going, Jaxon Kohler chief among them. Kohler, who was shooting above 50% from beyond the arc and averaging more than 10 rebounds per game through the first 17 games, is 4-for-22 from beyond the arc over the past five games, while averaging 5.8 rebounds.
Izzo is expected to make a lineup change heading into this game, inserting freshman Jordan Scott into a starting role at shooting guard in place of sophomore Divine Ugochukwu. That follows slow starts against Rutgers and Michigan. Scott started the second half against the Wolverines and helped erase a 16-point halftime deficit. Uguchukwu has been starting since the Penn State game in mid-December.
MORE:Couch: Loss to Michigan shows that Jordan Scott is MSU's best answer against the best teams
• Minnesota update: The Gophers have lost six straight after a 3-1 start to Big Ten play, which included wins over Indiana, Northwestern and Iowa. That losing streak doesn’t paint an accurate picture of their competitiveness of late. They lost to USC 70-69 in overtime, fell to Wisconsin 78-75, lost a relatively competitive game at Illinois (falling by 10), lost at Ohio State in OT, led Nebraska at halftime, led Wisconsin by 20 on the road in the first half in a game Minnesota played without leading scorer Cade Tyson, and then lost at Penn State 77-75 on Sunday.
This is a Minnesota roster with 10 first-year transfers, which isn’t surprising given that it’s a new coaching staff. Tyson was a bit role player at North Carolina last season and has become the Gophers’ leading man. Second-leading scorer Jaylen Crocker-Johnson came over with head coach Niko Medved from Colorado State. Former Western Michigan and Saginaw Valley State guard, Chansey Willis Jr., started the first seven games for the Gophers before being lost for the season with a foot injury.
• Matchup analysis: This is a middling Minnesota team in most statistical categories. They don’t shoot it that well from 3 (31.2% in Big Ten play) or rebound on the offensive glass. They do move the ball well, leading the Big Ten in assists rate. Medved’s teams are known for efficient, motion offense, with lots of movement and backdoor cuts.
Cade Tyson is part of that. He can score from deep — where he’s hit 40 of 104 3-point attempts — and has some craftiness on the drive. Forward Bobby Durkin, also 6-7, is the Gophers' other in-form outside shooter. Guard Isaac Asuma will let them fly at a high clip from beyond the arc, but he’s only making about 30% of his tries. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson is a strong-bodied player, who can score in the post and in the lane around contact. He’ll put the ball on the deck and drive it at you, too. He’ll look tiny, though, compared to Michigan’s front line.
• Prediction: This is likely to be a competitive game, even if the Spartans eventually pull away. The Gophers, I think, are better than Rutgers or Penn State, even though they just lost on the road to the Nittany Lions by a bucket. If MSU is focused defensively, the Spartans should ultimately be OK. But this could take some work. Minnesota has pushed a number of good and decent teams in Big Ten play.
• Make it: MSU 71, Minnesota 65
— Graham Couch
MORE:Couch: By transforming MSU Athletics, J Batt hopes to build a sustainable enterprise — and winning football
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Minnesota preview, prediction, TV info, betting line
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