Michigan basketball vs Arizona Final Four prediction, preview: Wolverines headed to title game?

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INDIANAPOLIS − These two teams felt destined for a collision at some point.

And here it is.

Midwest 1-seed Michigan basketball and West 1-seed Arizona will meet Saturday, April 4 (8:49, TBS) in the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium, for a berth in the national championship game. A journey that began last summer, got national attention in the fall and dominated in the winter is now set to conclude in spring.

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POLAR PLUNGES TO POINT GUARD: How Dusty May became Michigan basketball's ultimate connector

"With them being the No. 1 team [earlier in the year] and that being something we wanted, I caught a few of their games," senior guard Roddy Gayle Jr. said. "Obviously, we knew eventually we'd have to play these guys if we wanted to do what we wanted to do, which is win a national championship."

Gayle compared the Wildcats' style of play to Gonzaga − a team U-M crushed by 40 points in the Players Era Festival title game in Last Vegas during Thanksgiving week. Tommy Lloyd, Arizona's newly extended coach, spent years as an assistant at Gonzaga and, just like Mark Few, he likes to use bigs, dominate around the rim and dictate the terms of engagement.

But Gayle also noted that the Wolverines are well aware the domination they achieved against the Bulldogs in November is unlikely in April.

This isn't the first matchup between Lloyd and Michigan coach Dusty May. Arizona and Florida Atlantic, May's former squad, faced off in Vegas in December 2023, with the Wildcats eventually dropping the Owls in double-OT. What May remembers from those groups are the hallmark of this Arizona team, he noted, all implemented by Lloyd.

"A real solid plan that fits their personnel, their pace, their execution, their physicality," May said. "They play to their strengths. I think those are all signs of a well-coached group. They change a little bit each year, but they stay to who they are. Their identity stays the same, and they change just based on their personnel."

As good as Arizona has been in five seasons under Lloyd, this group is at another level.

Guard Jaden Bradley, the Big 12 Player of the Year, sets the pace and averages more than 13 points and 4.5 assists per game. The Wildcats also have freshman Braytden Burries, who in February became just the second Arizona player in 30 years with 20 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and no turnovers in a single game (Kansas, Feb. 28). There's Koa Peat, who played with Morez Johnson Jr. on Lloyd's gold-winning under-19 Team USA in the FIBA World Cup; he had 30 points in his Big 12 debut. In the middle, there's Ivan Kharchenkov, who had a double-double in his NCAA Tournament debut and Motiejus Krivas, who made the All-Big 12 All-Defense team.

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All five starters average double figures in scoring, reserve Tobe Awaka has 15 games of at least 10 rebounds and Anthony Dell'Orso has four games with at least 20 points, all against ranked teams.

Still, it's not the individual pieces, but what Arizona excels at as a unit that has Michigan on high alert.

"Definitely how fast they push in transition," Gayle said. "They do a really good job of getting to the free throw line, so being able to stay disciplined, not foul and keep them off the free-throw line, I think we'll be in great shape."

CONNECTIONS FOR YEARS: Michigan basketball tied to Final Four foe Arizona in numerous ways

By now, Michigan's strengths have been well documented.

Elliot Cadeau is the sixth player in program history with 200 assists in a game. Nimari Burnett has started every game in a U-M uniform for three straight years. Yaxel Lendeborg is making his case for Most Outstanding Player with at least 20 points in three straight games. Johnson is the enforcer and a second-team All-Big Ten player. Aday Mara was an All-Big Ten third-teamer while setting a U-M record for blocks (101) in a season. Trey McKenney made the league's All-Freshman team.

Both teams are top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, top two in effective field goal defense and top three in 2-point defense, per KenPom. That analytics site sees the game as a toss-up, picking the Wolverines to win by one.

May said he expects the game to be decided in the "39th or 40th minute"; he's buys into the idea of the game-of-the-decade billing. Now, all that's left to see if Michigan's "April habits" are indeed enough.

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Michigan vs Arizona prediction​


Michigan has felt all year that if it plays its "A" game, it can beat anyone in the country. Arizona will certainly put that to the test. But this Michigan team, led by Lendeborg (coming off his best month of the season), remains on a mission. Onto the title game the Wolverines go. The pick: U-M 86, Arizona 83.

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs Arizona Final Four prediction, preview

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