Media Final Four predictions for Michigan vs. Arizona game

[ASFN Admin]

There are still two days until the Final Four, but all four teams have arrived in Indianapolis, and the hype is just beginning.

Of course, over here, we're mostly concerned about Michigan basketball vs. Arizona, which is the second game set to tip off at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game is thought of by many as being the de facto national championship game, as it's two 1-seeds (the other side of the bracket pits a 2-seed vs. a 3-seed) who have long been thought as two of the three best teams in the country (Duke being the other). At the moment, KenPom ranks the Wolverines as the No. 1 team and the Wildcats as No. 2 (with the ousted Blue Devils at No. 3).

Now that all of the teams are on the clock, some of the major outlets are putting out their predictions. We're looking at three popular outlets to see what they think about the big game on Saturday night.

CBS Sports​

CBS Sports had one person (Isaac Trotter) pick the game, and while he gave a lot of positional advantages to Arizona (PG, SG, F), he ultimately is high on the breadth of Michigan's frontcourt and bench, which he believes will play the difference.

This game is won or lost on the glass. End of story. If Michigan keeps Arizona off the offensive glass -- easier said than done -- I don't know how Arizona scores. Who do you pick at? Krivas post-ups against Mara won't work all that effectively. Peat backdowns against Johnson won't be efficient. Bradley and Burries need to hit a ton of tough 2s? That might work for a minute, but it won't be sustainable over a 40-minute game. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Lendeborg gets the Burries assignment and gives him fits. It's just hard to find pathways for Arizona to score outside of second-chance opportunities.

Whoever controls the boards controls the game because both of these teams are so good at playing in the open floor.

But both of these defenses have been so good at limiting transition points.

If this turns into a half-court grinder, Michigan has the advantage. (...)

I was on Arizona to win this game for weeks because I thought the guard play would be the difference. But the way Lendeborg is playing right now is on a different level. He is the best player on the floor. Michigan's second-half defense also rates No. 1 nationally amongst all high-majors in effective field goal percentage, per CBB Analytics. Michigan has just a few more edges. This is the one matchup where Arizona's lack of 3-point shooting in the frontcourt comes back to bite 'em. If you can't space out Michigan's shot-blockers, life gets really, really hard.

The pick: Michigan

ESPN​

ESPN had two analysts pick the game, and there are compelling reasons each gave for each team to win. Thus, both essentially made it a pick 'em, with one person picking Michigan and the other picking Arizona -- both by the slimmest of margins.

Michigan will win if: The Wolverines will have to force the Wildcats to take shots outside the paint and neutralize all paths to the rim. Arizona is a really difficult team to compete against when it can get downhill, penetrate and attack teams in the lane. The Wildcats are in the top 10 nationally in drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line; that has been their bread and butter, and they're better at that tactic than any team in Indianapolis.On offense, Michigan has to extend Arizona's defense by shooting well from the 3-point line. The Wildcats' four NCAA tournament opponents struggled from beyond the arc, but the Wolverines have made 40% of their 3s since March 1. If Arizona is forced to focus on what the Wolverines are doing on the perimeter, that will create more room for Michigan's Lendeborg, Johnson and Aday Mara to operate in the lane.Still, against this strong of an Arizona team, Michigan might need Lendeborg to be the standout with a high-level performance comparable to the 27-point effort he produced against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. -- Medcalf

Borzello's prediction: Arizona, 82-80Medcalf's prediction: Michigan, 78-76

Sports Illustrated​

And then, there's SI, which had three analysts pick the game. Not a one is giving the Wolverines much of a chance.

Pat Forde: Michigan and Arizona have been dominant teams all season, with no major flaws and no serious wobble in the crucible of March. Now that it’s April, I’m sticking with the team I picked at the beginning of the tournament, the Wildcats. In a game that figures to be very even, I’m riding with the team that has a greater ability to rebound its own misses, get to the line and get easy points.

Bryan Fischer: As for the marquee semifinal, I just flipped a coin and landed on Arizona. I think it’s a razor-thin margin between the two best teams this March and probably comes down to the Wildcats simply having a higher floor in any game with their length and versatility. The Wolverines could be off from behind the arc or have Aday Mara get into foul trouble and that could be an era where they would be a little more vulnerable over a squad that was the best team in the sport this year save a one week stretch in league play.

Finally, give me Arizona to cap off this incredible campaign by bringing the banner back west of Texas for the first time since they did so in 1997.

Kevin Sweeney: And in the second game, expect an all-out battle from a physical standpoint. And in the end, I think Arizona is just a bit bigger and tougher than Michigan is. I also trust Arizona PG Jaden Bradley almost absolutely with the ball in his hands late in games and feel good about his ability to close games for the Wildcats if they get in a grinder late.

I don’t subscribe to the theory that Michigan-Arizona is the de facto title game, but I do have to pick the Wildcats over UConn in a championship game. Arizona has been the most consistent and most complete team all season and will find a way to cut down the nets.

We're gonna go ahead and disagree that Arizona is bigger and tougher than Michigan. Of course, Michigan has the biggest player on the court in Aday Mara, but when you look at the matchups, in most places it's even. Let's look at the starting fives:

Michigan	Height	Height	Arizona
G	Elliot Cadeau	6-1	6-3	Jaden Bradley
G	Nimari Burnett	6-5	6-4	Brayden Burries
F	Yaxel Lendeborg	6-9	6-6	Anthony Dell-Orso
F	Morez Johnson Jr.	6-9	6-8	Koa Peat
C	Aday Mara	7-3	7-2	Motiejus Krivaas

Yes, the Wildcats have several bench players who are 6-8 to 6-11, but generally, the players that Arizona and Michigan want out there feature bigger Wolverines than Wildcats.

This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: Michigan vs. Arizona Final Four predictions from ESPN, CBS, SI

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