March Madness predictions for Final Four, Cinderella, MSU, Michigan

[ASFN Admin]

March Madness predictions from experts are in after the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed Sunday night.

There are 68 teams with dreams of advancing in the tournament, with many believing they can make it to Indianapolis for the 2026 Final Four.

But is there one upset pick for the Final Four? Our experts pick their Final Four teams, take a stand for a Cinderella, and tell us how far Michigan basketball and Michigan State will advance in the tournament.

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Final Four predictions in March Madness 2026​

Tony Garcia, Michigan beat reporter​

• Final Four: Duke, Houston, Arizona, Michigan.
• Why: This isn't quite chalk, but it's pretty close. First off, let's start with the 2-seed. Houston has the No. 5 defense in the nation and is top-15 in offense with one of the most experienced coaches in the country. Kingston Flemings is a clutch shot maker, and while they're not tall, the Cougars are long and rangy. Duke will barely edge out UConn in what should be a thrilling game. The Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament even without Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II, not to mention they have the best player in the country in Cam Boozer. Arizona, outside of one week where it lost twice, has been steady, which is why it is ranked in the top five on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines looked mortal in the Big Ten Tournament and actually got outscored by one point across the three games, but this team has been incredibly consistent all year. The loss of L.J. Cason hurts, but the Wolverines have enough answers for anybody they see until the Elite Eight (baring a night where Alabama hits 18 3s) and then it's likely a one-game showdown with Iowa State to cut down the nets in Chicago, which U-M was unable to do this past weekend.

Chris Solari, Michigan State beat reporter​

• Final Four: Connecticut, Illinois, Arizona, Michigan.

Jeff Seidel, columnist​

• Final Four: Michigan, Duke, Houston, Arizona.

Carlos Monarrez, columnist​

• Final Four: Michigan, Duke, Houston, Arizona.
• Why: It's all chalk for the 1 seeds, except for Florida, which gets knocked off by the Cougars, who just missed out on a fourth straight 1-seed. Houston will count on its deep experience, with three starters returning from last season's runner-up team.

MORE PUNDITS: March Madness experts react, predict Michigan and MSU basketball fate

Cinderella picks in March Madness 2026​

Northern Iowa for Cinderella run in 2026 NCAA Tournament​

• Carlos Monarrez: East 12-seed Northern Iowa opens against 5-seed St. John’s. The Panthers can score quickly and already went through their own Cinderella dance winning their conference as a 6-seed.

VCU for Cinderella run in 2026 NCAA Tournament​

• Tony Garcia: How about 11-seed VCU making another run? The Rams have lost just once in the past two months and that came to the dangerous 9-seed Saint Louis. First, they get a North Carolina team that's without star wing Caleb Wilson. Should they pull the upset in round one, who's to say they can't get past Illinois? That's obviously an extremely tough draw, but hey, it's a Cinderella pick for a reason. The Illini frequently come up short in March and they might even get a scare from Fran McCaffrey's Penn squad in the first round if they're not careful.

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McNeese for Cinderella run in 2026 NCAA Tournament​

• Jeff Seidel: When in doubt, go with the No. 12 seed. The McNeese Cowboys play physical defense and have veteran guards. Vanderbilt should be wary. But then again, so should Nebraska. It’s onto the Sweet 16 for this Cinderella story.

BYU for Cinderella run in 2026 NCAA Tournament​

• Chris Solari: U-M won't have a chance to pursue him for next season, because he's likely the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, but star forward A.J. Dybantsa has his coming out party as BYU goes from competitive to beating high-level teams before running into the Wolverines in the Elite Eight.

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Michigan basketball March Madness: How far will it go?​

• Jeff Seidel: Get ready for the Wolverines to storm Indy. Michigan is heading to the Final Four. They have learned how to win all kinds of ways and will find a way to beat Arizona to get into the championship game. But Duke is Duke – the superior team, as we’ve already seen. And the Wolverines will lose a second time to Duke this season.
• Carlos Monarrez: Size matters as Michigan has shown all season, which will limit Arizona’s multitude of scorers in the Final Four. Unfortunately, Duke will come out on top in the rematch thanks to Cameron Boozer, who’s on track to finish with the highest offensive rating in KenPom history.
• Chris Solari: The Wolverines will get tested in its bracket but rely on its cohesiveness and the talent of Yaxel Lendeborg to get to the Final Four for the first time since 2018.

MSU basketball March Madness: How far will it go?​

• Chris Solari: The Spartans find their rhythm again against North Dakota State then grind their way through a second-round slugfest with Louisville to get back to the Sweet 16. But 2-seed UConn still has too much firepower for Tom Izzo's seven-man rotation.
• Jeff Seidel: MSU’s stunning loss to UCLA and sudden departure from the Big Ten Tournament is going to be a huge benefit to the Spartans, highlighting things they have to focus on. The Spartans will ride that learning experience to the Sweet 16, beating U Conn. But they will lose to Duke in the Elite 8.
• Carlos Monarrez: MSU’s lack of energy and defensive breakdowns against UCLA in a one-and-done Big Ten Tournament exit are concerning. Tom Izzo know how to get his team ready for the Big Dance, but 2-seed UConn will be too much in their Sweet 16 matchup.
• Tony Garcia: The Spartans got a tough draw after falling to the 3-seed line when Purdue won the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans should escape a tough contest against North Dakota State, but that could be followed by a capable South Florida team which could upset Louisville. The run ends in the Sweet 16 against a UConn squad that has the size and skill to handle MSU’s greatest strengths.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: March Madness picks: Final Four, Cinderella, Michigan, Michigan State

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