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March Madness 2026 bracket tips: How to play best odds when picking Final Four, Sweet 16 originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Will chalk be the talk of the 2025-26 NCAA Tournament?
It was last season. The Final Four featured all No. 1 seeds. No. 1 Florida became the seventh No. 1 seed in the last eight tournaments to win the national championship. A total of 26 of 40 national champions in the expanded bracket tournament era were No. 1 seeds. That means that 65% of the time it works every time.
This year's projected No. 1 seeds – Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida – will be overwhelming picks to win the national championship as a result.
Still, it's labeled "March Madness" for a reason. It's about playing the percentages in the earlier rounds to make sure your bracket is put together for what could be another chalky Final Four in 2025-26.
Here is a refresher of statistical trends from the NCAA Tournament since 1985 to remind you how to play the percentages with your bracket.
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year
Odds to make the championship game, by seed
| SEED | ODDS |
| No. 1 | 25.6% (42 of 160 No. 1 seeds) |
| No. 2 | 7.5% (12 of 160) |
| No. 3 | 6.9% (11 of 160) |
| No. 4 | 2.5% (4 of 160) |
| No. 5 | 2.5% (4 of 160) |
| No. 6 | 1.3% (2 of 160) |
| No. 7 | 0.6% (1 of 160) |
| No. 8 | 2.5% (4 of 160) |
Bracket tip: Last year marked the ninth time two No. 1 seeds played in the national championship game – and it's happened each of the last two seasons. The 2023 tournament was the only time since 2014 that there was not a No. 1 seed in the championship game. No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have combined to reach the championship game 23 times since 1985, and those lines are strong in this year's tournament. A combination of No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 is a good mix.
Odds to make the Final Four, by seed
| SEED | ODDS |
| No. 1 | 41.3% (66 of 160) |
| No. 2 | 19.4% (31 of 160) |
| No. 3 | 11.3% (18 of 160) |
| No. 4 | 9.4% (15 of 160) |
| No. 5 | 5.6% (9 of 160) |
| No. 6 | 1.9% (3 of 160) |
| No. 7 | 1.9% (3 of 160) |
| No. 8 | 3.8% (6 of 160) |
| No. 9 | 1.3% (2 of 160) |
| No. 10 | 0.6% (1 of 160) |
| No. 11 | 3.8% (6 of 160) |
Bracket tip: A total of 109 of the 156 Final Four participants – or 71.9% – have been No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seeds.
Last year's all No. 1 Final Four broke up a streak where there was at least one team seeded No. 4 or lower that made the Final Four in nine straight tournaments. That list included Michigan State (No. 7, 2015), Syracuse (No. 10, 2016), South Carolina (No. 7, 2017), Loyola Chicago (No. 11, 2018), Auburn (No. 5, 2019), UCLA (No. 11, 2021), North Carolina (No. 8, 2022) and the trio of Miami (No. 5, 2023), San Diego State (No. 5, 2023) and FAU (No. 9, 2023), and NC State (No. 11, 2024).
There could be one Final Four team outside the top four seed lines, but picking more than one is hazardous to a bracket.
MORE: Why expanding the NCAA Tournament field is pointless
Odds to make the Sweet 16, by seed
| SEED | ODDS |
| No. 1 | 85% (136 of 160) |
| No. 8 | 10% (16 out of 160) |
| No. 9 | 5% (8 out of 160) |
| No. 16 | 0% (0 out of 160) |
| No. 2 | 63.8% (102 out of 160) |
| No. 7 | 18.1% (29 out of 160) |
| No. 10 | 15.6% (25 out of 160) |
| No. 15 | 2.5% (4 out of 160) |
| No. 3 | 52.5% (84 out of 160) |
| No. 6 | 29.4% (47 out of 160) |
| No. 11 | 16.9% (27 out of 160) |
| No. 14 | 1.3% (2 out of 160) |
| No. 4 | 48.2% (77 out of 160) |
| No. 5 | 34.4% (55 out of 160) |
| No. 12 | 13.8% (22 out of 160) |
| No. 13 | 3.8% (6 of 160) |
Bracket tip: Every No. 1 and No. 2 has advanced to the Sweet 16 in each of the last two tournaments, and only one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the last two tournaments. A bracket isn't truly “busted” unless a No. 1 or No. 2 seed is lost in the first weekend.
A total of 75% of the Sweet 16 in the last two tournaments came from the top four seed lines. While the 5-12 upset gets a lot of attention – the No. 5 seed still does well when it comes to getting to the Sweet 16 with a 34.4% success rate. No. 4 seeds are 45-37 against No. 5 seeds in the NCAA tournament. That is always a game that is key for bracket success.
March Madness upset odds, by seed matchup
| SEED | ODDS |
| 16 vs. 1 | 1.3% (2 out of 160) |
| 15 vs. 2 | 6.9% (11 out of 160) |
| 14 vs. 3 | 14.4% (23 out of 160) |
| 13 vs. 4 | 20.6% (33 out of 160) |
| 12 vs. 5 | 35.6% (57 out of 160) |
| 11 vs. 6 | 38.8% (62 out of 160) |
| 10 vs. 7 | 39% (62 out of 159) |
| 9 vs. 8 | 48.1% (77 out of 160) |
Bracket tip: Five double-digit seeds won in the first round last season. That included two No. 10 seeds, two No. 12 seeds (the always-popular upset) and a No. 11 seed. In 2024, seven teams seeded between No. 11 and No. 14 won in the first round.
Be sure to check the true identity of Cinderella before picking them to win a second game. Three double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the last three years. No. 15 Princeton (2023), No. 11 NC State (2024) and No. 10 Arkansas (2025). Two of those schools are from major conferences.
Lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament
Villanova was a No. 8 seed in the 1984-85 NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats upset No. 1 Georgetown 66-64 in the national championship game. That remains the largest upset of the expanded bracket era and is considered one of the greatest upsets in NCAA tournament history.
Only 10 other teams seeded lower than No. 4 have made the NCAA championship game including No. 5 San Diego State in 2023. The Huskies routed the Aztecs 76-59.
Kansas (No. 6, 1988) and UConn (No. 7, 2014) were the other teams seeded lower than No. 4 that won the national title.
Bracket tip: A total of 37 of the 40 national champions since 1985 have been seeded No. 4 or higher. That means there is a 92.5% chance that the national champion will come from one of those four lines. Any bracket with a national champion outside those lines would be considered a long shot.
March Madness winners by seed, 1985 through 2024
| SEED | TITLES |
| No. 1 | 26 |
| No. 2 | 5 |
| No. 3 | 4 |
| No. 4 | 2 |
| No. 5 | 0 |
| No. 6 | 1 |
| No. 7 | 1 |
| No. 8 | 1 |
| No. 9 | 0 |
| No. 10 | 0 |
| No. 11 | 0 |
| No. 12 | 0 |
| No. 13 | 0 |
| No. 14 | 0 |
| No. 15 | 0 |
| No. 16 | 0 |
Las Vegas odds to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament
This section will be updated after Selection Sunday with the latest odds for the entire Field of 68.
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