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Kirk Cousins didn't work out as the Atlanta Falcons' $180 million man.
He was limited by the slow recovery process from a torn Achilles in 2023 and generally looked like he was left playing at 0.75x speed while the game froared around him. Michael Penix Jr. arrived as Atlanta's surprising draft pick just months after his signing. The former Washington star eventually usurped Cousins before suffering his own injury, leaving the Falcons to move on and release their high-priced veteran this offseason.
Now he's set to play veteran mentor to another first round rookie quarterback. Cousins signed with the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday morning, linking him with likely first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Fernando Mendoza. After releasing Geno Smith, Las Vegas needed a reliable backup. Now the Raiders have one in the soon-to-be 38-year-old Cousins, who can start or provide a high-value understudy as the franchise aims for its first postseason win in more than two decades.
As Tom Pelissero points out, there's a complicated combination of factors at play here when it comes to Cousins' total compensation. The Raiders are kicking in $10 million guaranteed when Cousins is on the roster on the third day of the new league year next March. They hold the option on the final two years and $80 million for 2027 and 2028.
That probably won't happen and, if things go poorly (or even just fine), all Las Vegas is on the hook for is the $1.3 million veteran minimum this season and $10 million next spring.
All in all, it's a five-year, $172 million deal. In reality, it's basically one year and $20 million for Cousins, of which the Falcons will be paying $8.7 million.
That's still a lot of money for a quarterback whose 0.053 expected points added (EPA) per dropback ranked 28th out of 43 quarterbacks to play at least 320 snaps the last two seasons -- behind Mason Rudolph and, sigh, Tua Tagovailoa. But Cousins improved as his Achilles returned to something approaching normalcy. His play action rate rose back up to 23.4 percent, up from 14 percent the season prior. His EPA fell to 0.31 last season, but he still managed to slap together efficient performances that led the Falcons to a four-game winning streak that capped off the season and made the first round draft pick owed to the Los Angeles Rams in the James Pearce trade (oof) a little less valuable.
He'll give new head coach Klint Kubiak a potential veteran starter should Mendoza need a runway before his NFL takeoff. While he modestly ascended to end 2025, Cousins brings very real questions to his game.
Even if his Achilles is back to 100 percent, what will that look like in his age 38 season -- a time where quarterback arm strength tends to wane? Cousins played in an offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts last season and was largely a game manager. His 6.9 air yards per attempt were a career low, even though his deep ball rate hit a four-year high (8.6 percent, 24th-highest in the NFL).
That's a system that might work in Las Vegas. Ashton Jeanty has Robinson potential. Brock Bowers can rumble upfield to turn short targets into long gains. That would set up deep shots to, uh, Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor or Donte Thornton? Jack Bech? But Cousins couldn't connect with his Falcons wideouts downfield, completing only four of 24 throws that went 20-plus yards downfield. It's fair to wonder if his deep game is permanently compromised.
"Permanently compromised" is not a phrase you want attached to a player with eight figures in guaranteed money. It would have only cost the Raiders $7 million in extra cash to keep Geno Smith around, though he made that a tricky proposition by flipping off the home fans in his lone season in Nevada. Paying Cousins $11.3 million gives him the 21st-highest salary among NFL quarterbacks, which is skewed by the sheer number of inexpensive contracts for rookie starters (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, etc) but still pricy.
He's getting less than Justin Fields will make to play a similar role in front of, then ceding snaps to, an injured Patrick Mahomes. He's also getting more than backups like Rudolph, Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills or Marcus Mariota. If he can improve even 20 percent on his 2025 finish he's a better player than any of those QB2s. If he stays the same, well, the Raiders are overpaying by about $4.3 million.
That's a reasonable gamble for a player who can be a risk-averse veteran presence who is well-liked in the locker room and leads by example. It's also one that could backfire, but Las Vegas has the cap space to be proactive. Given the current state of the market, high asking prices for young backup/starters like Mac Jones and Tanner McKee and the Raiders' needs, this was probably the best they could hope for after Kyler Murray signed with the Vikings.
Grade: B
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Kirk Cousins signs with Raiders: Grading Vegas' 'why not?' veteran QB
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He was limited by the slow recovery process from a torn Achilles in 2023 and generally looked like he was left playing at 0.75x speed while the game froared around him. Michael Penix Jr. arrived as Atlanta's surprising draft pick just months after his signing. The former Washington star eventually usurped Cousins before suffering his own injury, leaving the Falcons to move on and release their high-priced veteran this offseason.
Now he's set to play veteran mentor to another first round rookie quarterback. Cousins signed with the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday morning, linking him with likely first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Fernando Mendoza. After releasing Geno Smith, Las Vegas needed a reliable backup. Now the Raiders have one in the soon-to-be 38-year-old Cousins, who can start or provide a high-value understudy as the franchise aims for its first postseason win in more than two decades.
The deal: Raiders sign Kirk Cousins for five years, $172 million (but really one year and $11.3 million, along with $8.7 million in guarantees from his Falcons deal)
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As Tom Pelissero points out, there's a complicated combination of factors at play here when it comes to Cousins' total compensation. The Raiders are kicking in $10 million guaranteed when Cousins is on the roster on the third day of the new league year next March. They hold the option on the final two years and $80 million for 2027 and 2028.
That probably won't happen and, if things go poorly (or even just fine), all Las Vegas is on the hook for is the $1.3 million veteran minimum this season and $10 million next spring.
All in all, it's a five-year, $172 million deal. In reality, it's basically one year and $20 million for Cousins, of which the Falcons will be paying $8.7 million.
That's still a lot of money for a quarterback whose 0.053 expected points added (EPA) per dropback ranked 28th out of 43 quarterbacks to play at least 320 snaps the last two seasons -- behind Mason Rudolph and, sigh, Tua Tagovailoa. But Cousins improved as his Achilles returned to something approaching normalcy. His play action rate rose back up to 23.4 percent, up from 14 percent the season prior. His EPA fell to 0.31 last season, but he still managed to slap together efficient performances that led the Falcons to a four-game winning streak that capped off the season and made the first round draft pick owed to the Los Angeles Rams in the James Pearce trade (oof) a little less valuable.
He'll give new head coach Klint Kubiak a potential veteran starter should Mendoza need a runway before his NFL takeoff. While he modestly ascended to end 2025, Cousins brings very real questions to his game.
Even if his Achilles is back to 100 percent, what will that look like in his age 38 season -- a time where quarterback arm strength tends to wane? Cousins played in an offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts last season and was largely a game manager. His 6.9 air yards per attempt were a career low, even though his deep ball rate hit a four-year high (8.6 percent, 24th-highest in the NFL).
That's a system that might work in Las Vegas. Ashton Jeanty has Robinson potential. Brock Bowers can rumble upfield to turn short targets into long gains. That would set up deep shots to, uh, Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor or Donte Thornton? Jack Bech? But Cousins couldn't connect with his Falcons wideouts downfield, completing only four of 24 throws that went 20-plus yards downfield. It's fair to wonder if his deep game is permanently compromised.
"Permanently compromised" is not a phrase you want attached to a player with eight figures in guaranteed money. It would have only cost the Raiders $7 million in extra cash to keep Geno Smith around, though he made that a tricky proposition by flipping off the home fans in his lone season in Nevada. Paying Cousins $11.3 million gives him the 21st-highest salary among NFL quarterbacks, which is skewed by the sheer number of inexpensive contracts for rookie starters (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, etc) but still pricy.
He's getting less than Justin Fields will make to play a similar role in front of, then ceding snaps to, an injured Patrick Mahomes. He's also getting more than backups like Rudolph, Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills or Marcus Mariota. If he can improve even 20 percent on his 2025 finish he's a better player than any of those QB2s. If he stays the same, well, the Raiders are overpaying by about $4.3 million.
That's a reasonable gamble for a player who can be a risk-averse veteran presence who is well-liked in the locker room and leads by example. It's also one that could backfire, but Las Vegas has the cap space to be proactive. Given the current state of the market, high asking prices for young backup/starters like Mac Jones and Tanner McKee and the Raiders' needs, this was probably the best they could hope for after Kyler Murray signed with the Vikings.
Grade: B
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Kirk Cousins signs with Raiders: Grading Vegas' 'why not?' veteran QB
Continue reading...
