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LOS ANGELES, CA -- Game One for the ages, you say, how do you feel for Game Two?
Well, by all means, try to defend Connor McDavid. The next 'great one' displayed what many accounts defined as one of his career's most outstanding playoff performances. Three primary helpers and a game-tying goal in the final 21 minutes of a game against one of the stingiest teams in the league will certainly paint a picture of the defined best player on Earth.
The storyline shouldn't deviate too far from the fact that the Los Angeles Kings win this contest, albeit on a knuckleball shot from Phillip Danault, the guy who is supposed to be shutting down one of, or both, the Oiler's main engines. The Kings also won their first playoff regulation game against the Oilers since Game Four in 2021-22. Since then, they have only had victory come in extra time, led by the heroics of Adrian Kempe, Alex Iafallo, Trevor Moore, and Anze Kopitar. On the other hand, the Oilers have eleven victories coming in regulation, with five of those games coming with 3+ goal differences.
Hubris would say this is a different year and team; in all fairness, it is for both squads. The Oilers got smaller and slower while battling an injury bug that still saw 100 points banked in the standings, thanks to an MVP-caliber season from Leon Draisaitl and an 'off' year from McDavid, who still broke triple digit production. However, the depth is not there. The goaltending, which was already suspect, dipped. Regulars reeled in production. The D-corps, while looking okay with Mattias Ekholm, are without their stout rearguard for this series.
Clear-cut advantages for a Kings' team on the up and up? Well, a four-nothing and even a 5-2 lead were not safe from these battered Oilers. But a job was accomplished with a rare regulation win, and outside a Mattias Janmark goal, the Kings checked very well until the Oiler's not-so-secret weapon was revealed so early on: Draisaitl with McDavid.
The two first lined up when the Oilers were down 1-0. While Edmonton looked down for count, in the final minute of the second period, the nuclear line sparked life into the Oilers to break the shutout 4-1.
When separated, the Kings did an excellent job smothering the Oilers. The McDavid-Zach Hyman-Jeff Skinner line? Via NST, they were caved in Corsi and Fenwick-wise, respectively, 42.86% and 33.3%. They were outshot and outscored 4-0 and 2-0. Swap out Skinner with Connor Brown, and things got better for the Oil, with a 50% Corsi and a 66.67% Fenwick, while only outshot 1-0. Didn't score a goal, however.
Kris Knoblauch threw out these lines at five-on-five in just over five minutes combined.
Regarding his underlying analytics, Draisaitl was much more dangerous. His line with Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin was held off the scoresheet, but in 4:19, their Corsi was a dominant 85.71%, outshooting the Kings 2-0.
Was the game plan thrown out with the use of the nuclear line, or is it the only game plan for the Oilers? The nuclear line of Draisaitl and McDavid almost won Game One for the Oilers and is truly the only factor that could win this series for Edmonton. As mentioned, the depth and support are nowhere close to what it once was.
While Hyman has been the go-to other winger on the nuclear line, the trio was outscored 2-1 while icing that unit at even strength. No, it was the old thorn in the Kings side in Corey Perry that landed on the nuclear line to outscore the Kings 2-0.
McDavid and Draisaitl played 13:27 next to one another, caving in the Kings and outscoring them 4-1 (all situations). McDavid played 9:51 away from Draisaitl, and Draisaitl played 8:34 away from McDavid. Both these engines were largely ineffective on offense away from one another, particularly McDavid, which almost sounds blasphemous considering the game's final frame + one minute. Away from Draisaitl, his Corsi was 41.18%, Fenwick 38.46%. He was outshot 5-1 and outscored 2-0. The duo, with both playing the vast majority of their minutes together, combined for almost half of the Oilers' 25 shots on goal (12 total). However, when both were off the ice, they were outscored 3-1 and outshot 21-10.
There's just very little to answer for that, and in fact, there is very little that some of the league's best defenders can do about it. In a way, it represents the antithesis of how to build a team to contend for a cup: with balance and depth. The Oilers can win this series running double time on these two superstars.
How were the Kings centers, who have been heralded as the guys, able to slow these two generational players down, you say? Quinton Byfield, against this duo, outscored 3-0 and outshot 6-0 while he was on the ice. Anze Kopitar? Outshot 4-0, outscored 2-0. Phillip Danault? Outshot 5-3, sawed-off 1-1 scoring-wise due to the knuckler shot.
Is it too soon for Edmonton to be doing this? Is it strategic, a tactic guile? Or is it something we've seen many times before, as an ace up the sleeve, a useful cop-out for a potentially flawed roster that can strap in its two pillars to drive the bus together and get the results for a team that was ever so close a summer ago? It's incredibly frustrating for an opposing team, I'm sure.
The Kings will continue to take their turns trying to add defensive layers to what looks to be an unstoppable duo when the two are together. When they are separated, they are vulnerable to staying off the scoresheet at even strength while the Kings feast on the other nine Oiler forwards and a thin defensive core. A highlighted emphasis is placed on what seems simple: shutting down two players, but it is a potential hazard for both clubs.
For the Kings, a disaster would loom over a series lost for the fourth year in a row, a potentially brutal one with Edmonton's lack of depth and critical injuries. For the Oilers, there is already heavy usage on two players instead of a full complement of a legitimate contending roster so early into a playoff campaign.
Winning a series against the Oilers is entirely within the realm of possibility, but also vice versa; two guys on the same line can be that good to single or, better yet, double-handedly beat a team.
But at what cost, when there are three more rounds? Will things continue this way into Game Two today?
Will these behemoths of the game have to continue flirting with 15 minutes next to one another to have a chance against the best Rob Blake team of this era?
Full proof or fool proof? Pick your poison.
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