- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 440,203
- Reaction score
- 44
You must be registered for see images attach
LOS ANGELES, CA—Four years. Four matchups against the same team. The Oilers and Kings are at it yet again. While articles and opinions are bound to explode the next few days leading up to game one, which the Los Angeles Lakers delayed, I take a look at something that I believe is the most polarizing aspect of the series.
The centres will take center stage.
Who matches up against who? Regular season vs. playoffs matters in viewing this matchup of opposing centres.
Point blank: Leon Draisatil has 30 points against the Kings in 18 playoff games. Over half (9-7-16) of the damage has been done on the powerplay. And Connor McDavid? 36 points, with 19 points deposited on the powerplay. That's 29 even strength points across 18 games, well over a ppg clip from their combined efforts.
Special teams will be a significant factor in how this one turns out as that's close to the majority of their damage (35 out of the combined 76 points), but this series has the potential to see their even strength production get whittled down, with the thinnest forward support for the two-headed monster in Edmonton during the McDavid/Draisatil era.
How do you stop these superstars? Match them against centres who can 'limit the damage.' Based on the recent past, Phillip Danault will see a lot of McDavid, Anze Kopitar, and Draisaitl. History backs this up.
Well, the data hasn't explicitly shown success in this tactic. While it was a go-to in the past, the present looks a little obscure. McDavid caved Danault in this season in his two sole appearances against the Kings this year. In 10:54, when playing against McDavid at even strength, his Corsi was a brutal 35.29%, followed by an even worse 33.3% Fenwick. He was outshot 8-1 while McDavid was on the ice and outchanced 7-4.
The one silver lining? High-danger chances favored Danault 4-3, showing a suppression in the quality of looks McDavid created while Danault was out on the ice.
Kopitar, who serves as the likely candidate for Draistail strictly based on the size comparision, has had much better numbers against McDavid this season. In 15:10, his Corsi against McDavid was 51.85, Fenwick 57.14%. While on the ice, the Kings outshot the Oilers 9-5, while Kopitar opposed McDavid. Though, while out-chanced while McDavid was on the ice 4-6, high-danger chances were even at 4-4. That's a win for any team opposing McDavid.
Kopitar also fared extremely well against Draisaitl this season, with Danault also struggling in that matchup; in 6:46, the Kings had a 69.23% Corsi and 55.56% Fenwick. The Kings outshot the Oilers 5-4 in that span, with Kopitar against Draisaitl. Not bad for the 37-year-old Slovenian.
Danault, on the other hand? In 17:00 (the vast majority of minutes against Draisaitl) in the two games was cratered in Corsi and Fenwick, 32.50% and 42.31%, respectively. The Kings were outshot 6-10 and outchanced 7-11. They were also out-high-danger chanced 2-6, but not a single goal was allowed this year while facing McDavid or Draisaitl from the Kings' bonafide and go-to shutdown centre.
The two-game sample size could be somewhat moot, particularly when the Kings played their best hockey of the year post-deadline. In the two games against the Oiler post deadline, both Connor and Leon watched from the bowels of Crypto and Rogers Arena, in which the Kings shut out the Oilers twice.
Additionally, both players have been monsters come playoff time. In the last three playoff series, McDavid has played over 140 minutes against both Danault and Kopitar, with both Selke candidate players buckling heavily against the league's best player. Both Danault and Kopitar have been outscored almost by a 2:1 margin over the last three postseasons while facing off against McDavid at five-on-five (Danault 3 to 6, Kopitar 7 to 13).
Draisatil has been surprisingly more manageable at even strength, with Danault matching up in the playoffs; in just over 100 minutes, he controls Corsi (52.77%) and outscores (7 to 3) while facing off against Draisaitl. It is worth noting that while Danaut is on the ice against Draisaitl, the Kings have produced a heavily favorable 6 to 2 high-danger ratio. Kopitar is quite the opposite, despite controlling play (50.9% Corsi in 122:24), is outscored 6-14.
A Third Option, for the First Time?
Danault is a great candidate for Draisaitl and Kopitar, and potentially McDavid. The Kings have never successfully had a third option down the middle. They tried with Gabriel Vilardi and Pierre Luc Dubois. That failed.
But what could be in play is Quinton Byfield, who has emerged as a 1B to Kopitar in the last 30 games of the season (12g-17a +17). Byfield, however, does not any real sample from facing off against either Goliath this season while centering his current linemates. While not a top matchup line down the stretch, his line, with Kevin Fiala and Alex Laferriere, has outscored the opposition 20 to 6.
That line shouldn't be used to match up against the Oiler's top six but rather to feast off the bottom six, which should pose a significant challenge for the Oiler's management and brain trust. Byfield has shown the ability to match up against opposing top centres while having his penalty kill partner in Warren Foegele earlier in the season but has thrived with the switch to a scoring line without the ex-Oiler, with Danault and Kopitar taking the primary duties of the top six matchups.
Certainly not helping is Byfield's 44% success rate in the faceoff circle. The other centres above him operate above 50%. An area of improvement and of importance as possession will play a major role in how well his line produces this series.
This will be Byfiled's first postseason as a full-time centre, and his overall play could be the deciding factor in a series in which the Kings look best suited to overthrow their past demons.
Each centre faces an immense challenge, whether it be Byfield, Kopitar, or Danault. The Kings are at a disadvantage there, regardless of whether McDavid or Draisaitl are operating at or near 100% health. Both are Kings' killers, their label for most teams in the league; they have torched across the regular season and postseason during spectacular careers that have yet to reach a zenith.
Superior wingers, superior defense, and superior goaltending should prevail. But with those two suited up against the Kings, there is always a chance they can run away with a series.
It will be a committee effort in their designated assignments, coming down to centre on centre. If those two can't be slowed down, the Kings are looking down the barrel of four straight postseason exits from the same team, the same core, if three straight wasn't bad enough.
There is, of course, the go-to usage of Draisaitl and McDavid on the same line (they have outscored the Kings 12-4 in 96 minutes across the last three postseasons as linemates). There's just no stopping that.
I'd give the Oilers the slight edge here since the Kings have the edge in every position outside of the centre position. If they find a way to stifle them, they can earn their first second-round berth since they last won it all in 2014.
A story that seems as old as time. Until it's done, they'll continue to flirt with postseason success.
(All stats were pulled from NaturalStatTrick)
Continue reading...
