K1

[TaylorSwift]

Because stats don't give the full picture. Including passer rating I mentioned earlier, but they can be indicative.

I watched alot if 2nd year Watson and as a passer he's way above what I have seen from Kyler this year. All while taking a thousand sacks.

All this sounds like I hate Kyler. I really don't. There's just a lot of fanboy discount going on here with how he's played. He really should be further along than he is in many ways considering the whole system is built round what he already knows.

Its not like Herbert for example who's gone from a 100% shotgun college spread system to having to play 40% under center and learn a whole new scheme and verbiage.

Kyler has been able to devote much more of his time to reading defenses, going through reads etc because he already knew the system.

Kyler is leagues better than deshaunin 2018 with better personnel and coaching around deshaun .


Kylers throwing is now where as bad as you make it out to be.

Completely hyperbolic.

I have watched a lot of herbert, unless you know the scheme you don't know where his reads are going .


He makes a lot of tight throws but have the wrs to make plays for him.

Mahomes was the same way, missed a lot of reads his mvp season but had travis kelce and tyreek hill.


People are under the impression that Kyler somehow. how is supposed to be prime peyton manning in his second year.

Ridiculous stuff.

 

[TaylorSwift]

Kylers issue has never been mental.

It's his throwing mechanical regression in the pocket.

Especially throwing off of his back foot.

He has missed a good number of throws that way, he'd. Have ,4500+ yards passing if he didn't throw off of his backfoot



That's coaching

 

[Russ Smith]

You can't really compare because rules change year to year but second year Watson had 26 passing TD's and 5 rushing TD's, Kyler has 26 and 11 with 1 game left. Watson had 9 INT's a 1.8 INT%, Kyler has 12 a 2.1%. So Watson had the edge in passing, better YPA, better % but you're completely glossing over the sack #'s, he got sacked SIXTY TWO times, that wasn't just the OL, that was him too. BEfore he got there Osweiler was the QB and had 27 sacks in basically a full year. Rookie Watson before he got hurt got sacked 19 times in 6 starts, on a pace for about 45 starts over a full season. He was great that year absolutely but those 62 sacks were not just the OL being terrible it was Watson not reacting to the pass rush. Even now the last 2 years he's taken 44 and 45 sacks, it's not just their OL, Watson plays a style that leads to sacks, he holds the ball too long thinking he can just avoid the rush. He's a terrific player but one might suggest the reason his completion % is so high is he never throws the ball away to avoid a sack.

 

[football karma]

Kylers issue has never been mental.

It's his throwing mechanical regression in the pocket.

"and" is possible as well

id even suggest that his bad mechanics come from when he is unsure of where to go, or, his decision making is late

faster recognition and decisions will come with more experience

 

[Big D]

You can't really compare because rules change year to year but second year Watson had 26 passing TD's and 5 rushing TD's, Kyler has 26 and 11 with 1 game left. Watson had 9 INT's a 1.8 INT%, Kyler has 12 a 2.1%. So Watson had the edge in passing, better YPA, better % but you're completely glossing over the sack #'s, he got sacked SIXTY TWO times, that wasn't just the OL, that was him too. BEfore he got there Osweiler was the QB and had 27 sacks in basically a full year. Rookie Watson before he got hurt got sacked 19 times in 6 starts, on a pace for about 45 starts over a full season. He was great that year absolutely but those 62 sacks were not just the OL being terrible it was Watson not reacting to the pass rush. Even now the last 2 years he's taken 44 and 45 sacks, it's not just their OL, Watson plays a style that leads to sacks, he holds the ball too long thinking he can just avoid the rush. He's a terrific player but one might suggest the reason his completion % is so high is he never throws the ball away to avoid a sack.

Those are really good points about the huge disparity in the 2nd year sack numbers between the two.

Here’s something to chew on though. You would think that a guy getting (or taking) sacked at a rate of more than two times the rate Murray is getting sacked would naturally have way more fumbles right?

Well actually he didn’t. They have same total number of fumbles (9) with Murray still having a game to play. We already know that Murray has more INTs. So really if your QB is avoiding sacks yet throwing INTs in the end zone in back to back weeks for example, is that really better than taking a sack in those situations?

Ball security is a major concern with Kyler. We were told that protecting the football was one of his strong suits coming out of college and after a good start his rookie season unfortunately that portion of his game has pretty much become unraveled. The more games you play, the more film there is of you, you know how that goes.

Now we can say that’s on “coaching” but I would be willing to wager that someone on that staff is telling him to get two hands on the ball in the pocket when the rush comes. At the very least, I would hope they are telling him to stop holding the ball in one hand at your knees when you are getting hit. Admittedly, that is pure conjecture though.

 

[TaylorSwift]

"and" is possible as well

id even suggest that his bad mechanics come from when he is unsure of where to go, or, his decision making is late

faster recognition and decisions will come with more experience

No, I think it has more to do with how he deals with pressure.

Thats just simple mechanics, rote movement for him at this point.

I think the problem is that the interior of the line has been getting blown tf up in pass pro and its giving him ghosts.

Even the throws that he makes harder by a missed read or something else the throw can still be made, he makes them because he mechanically sound/extremely talented, but there are also times where he attempts the same sort of throw and due to off mechanics its a bad throw.

The int on the endzone throw to Kirk for example.

He just mechanically broke down and that caused the ball to be behind.

And he didn't have a lot of pressure too. But he has been getting pressured a lot up the middle over the last couple weeks.

Cardinals are very soft with Sweezy, Cole, Pugh in the middle and it is affecting Murrays play.

They need a guys like Richie Ingconito, nasty aholes who are physical at the point of attack and give a qb confidence in the pocket he is stepping up in.

 

[SoonerLou]

You could make the case Kyler's season is also not far off of Deshaun's 3rd year in the league.

Through 15 games
QB A Passing 3852 26 tds 12 ints 67%
98 Passer Rating 71 Total QBR

QB B Passing 3884 26 tds 12 ints 67%
94 Passer Rating 69 QBR

And one of those guys plays in a much tougher division.

Just saying for perspective sake if Kyler's "raw #s" dont improve as much to people's liking next year. Obviously we'd hope to see just better overall play.

 

[SoonerLou]

Because stats don't give the full picture. Including passer rating I mentioned earlier, but they can be indicative.

I watched alot if 2nd year Watson and as a passer he's way above what I have seen from Kyler this year. All while taking a thousand sacks.

All this sounds like I hate Kyler. I really don't. There's just a lot of fanboy discount going on here with how he's played. He really should be further along than he is in many ways considering the whole system is built round what he already knows.

Its not like Herbert for example who's gone from a 100% shotgun college spread system to having to play 40% under center and learn a whole new scheme and verbiage.

Kyler has been able to devote much more of his time to reading defenses, going through reads etc because he already knew the system.

There are similar foundations, but Lincoln Riley's system isnt the same as Kliff's. Its like saying Andy Reid's west coast offense is the same as Kyle Shanahan's. There's a familiarity there, but still two different things and two different play callers.

 

[Russ Smith]

Those are really good points about the huge disparity in the 2nd year sack numbers between the two.

Here’s something to chew on though. You would think that a guy getting (or taking) sacked at a rate of more than two times the rate Murray is getting sacked would naturally have way more fumbles right?

Well actually he didn’t. They have same total number of fumbles (9) with Murray still having a game to play. We already know that Murray has more INTs. So really if your QB is avoiding sacks yet throwing INTs in the end zone in back to back weeks for example, is that really better than taking a sack in those situations?

Ball security is a major concern with Kyler. We were told that protecting the football was one of his strong suits coming out of college and after a good start his rookie season unfortunately that portion of his game has pretty much become unraveled. The more games you play, the more film there is of you, you know how that goes.

Now we can say that’s on “coaching” but I would be willing to wager that someone on that staff is telling him to get two hands on the ball in the pocket when the rush comes. At the very least, I would hope they are telling him to stop holding the ball in one hand at your knees when you are getting hit. Admittedly, that is pure conjecture though.

OH I agree he doesn't hang on to the ball tight enough and it's lead to some fumbles. The 2 INT's are the only ones he's thrown this year in the redzone but they were both bad ones, that hurt us. He has to stop that. That said, on the year Kyler has 18 passing TD's and 9 rushing TD's inside the 20 yard line, so 27 in the redzone. In year 2, Watson had 19 and 5 so 24. So Kyler is producing more td's in the redzone even with the 2 INT's(Watson had 0). Watson 51% inside the 20, Kyler 63%, Kyler has not taken a single sack in the redzone this year(took 6 as a rookie), Watson in his 2nd year took FIFTEEN sacks inside the redzone. I'm not a Houston fan so I don't watch all their games but I'm going out on a limb and predict some of those sacks led to them having to kick FG's. So in the Redzone, even with the 2 picks, Kyler IMO is better than Watson at the same stage, producing more TD's. I should add, that's in 12 less attempts in the redzone for Kyler so 3 more TD's, in 12 less attempts.

Watson is a great player, I'm not even remotely saying otherwise, I'm just saying when you compare their stats you can't just say well Watson completes a higher %, without looking at why, and part of why is he does NOT throw the ball away. In a typical Cards game you'll see Kyler 2-3 times throw the ball out of bounds to avoid a sack(this year). Early this year John Harbaugh was asked about defending Watson and he said one of the things that is unique is he holds the ball longer than any QB in the NFL. Our favorite GM, Bill O'Brien, said in 2019 that one of the goals for the season for him was to get Watson to throw the ball away more, without taking away his aggressiveness. We love that he wants to make plays downfield, we love his ability to extend plays, but he is taking too many hits, too many sacks, he has to learn sometimes the best play is throw it away and go get them on the next play. Remember O'Brien was the coach too.

Watson takes more shots downfield it shows in YPA and YPC, but he simply for his career has NOT thrown the ball away, it's a large reason why he takes so many sacks, and completes a high % of his passes.

 

[football karma]

I think the problem is that the interior of the line has been getting blown tf up i

yes

again, i think this is another factor

the o line was just beaten up last week

but on that play -- how many times have we seen Russel Wilson facing a blitz literally get the ball and immediately throw the go route down the sideline? its a staple of their offense.

I would say that K1 made the right read, but was a tick late. Even if he had thrown the ball far enough, i think Kirk is out of bounds. If he had thrown the ball earlier, the ball is in the back 3 yards of the endzone and an incompletion at worst.

 

[TaylorSwift]

There are similar foundations, but Lincoln Riley's system isnt the same as Kliff's. Its like saying Andy Reid's west coast offense is the same as Kyle Shanahan's. There's a familiarity there, but still two different things and two different play callers.

And reading NFL defenses is a completely different monster than college defenses.

Especially when you only have one receiver who can win a 1-1 match up consistently.

Aaron Rodgers even had to adjust and find ways when it was just Devante Adams on the outside.

Coverages are far more complex, there is a lot of trickery. You have to be aware of protections and blitzes.

And then you are asking him to make difficult throws because easy completion throws/pass concepts 10+ yards are not built into this offense.

A lot to expect from a 2nd year qb.

And thats with an HC attempting to transition from running an air raid offense predicated off of hitches/curls/short outs into a more expansive and diverse NFL offense.

 

[TaylorSwift]

yes

again, i think this is another factor

the o line was just beaten up last week

but on that play -- how many times have we seen Russel Wilson facing a blitz literally get the ball and immediately throw the go route down the sideline? its a staple of their offense.

I would say that K1 made the right read, but was a tick late. Even if he had thrown the ball far enough, i think Kirk is out of bounds. If he had thrown the ball earlier, the ball is in the back 3 yards of the endzone and an incompletion at worst.

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1:40-1:44, he had plenty of room, just made a poor throw. Because of throwing off of the back foot.

Most of his poor throws are because he throws off of his backfoot. Whether because its pressure, or K1 thinks there is pressure, probably both.

 

[Russ Smith]

yes

again, i think this is another factor

the o line was just beaten up last week

but on that play -- how many times have we seen Russel Wilson facing a blitz literally get the ball and immediately throw the go route down the sideline? its a staple of their offense.

I would say that K1 made the right read, but was a tick late. Even if he had thrown the ball far enough, i think Kirk is out of bounds. If he had thrown the ball earlier, the ball is in the back 3 yards of the endzone and an incompletion at worst.

Also he had time to step up or at least step into the throw but instead he threw off the back foot. that was I think because the safety blitz had been getting there all game so he panicked when the safety came in again

 

[football karma]

1:40-1:44, he had plenty of room, just made a poor throw. Because of throwing off of the back foot.

i am not disputing poor mechanics led to a poor throw

but he double clutched -- if he just hits his drop and throws the ball -- he probably throws with better fundamentals, and, Kirk has nearly the whole endzone to work with

in the throw as is: there is lots of room because the ball is underthrown. By throwing late - a well thrown ball probably needs to be within +/- 1 yard of the endline, and it becomes a difficult catch

 

[Russ Smith]

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1:40-1:44, he had plenty of room, just made a poor throw. Because of throwing off of the back foot.

Most of his poor throws are because he throws off of his backfoot. Whether because its pressure, or K1 thinks there is pressure, probably both.

3 things. On the INT it actually wasn't empty, which makes the backfoot throw worse. They did blitz, but we had it picked up and because we had Drake in the backfield(he went out on a pass play) Kyler should have at least felt pre snap a bit better, it was really the empty backfield blitzes that hurt us.

On the throw to Kirk down the sideline the guy never mentioned Keesean who seems to be open on that play. I know Kyler may have felt if I throw it there it's more dangerous it's not a catch or out of bounds type of play but the only guy who had a chance to make a play is the CB covering Kirk, and he's got a ways to go to get there. Put the ball out in front and to the left of Johnson and it's a pretty safe bet nobody but Johnson has a chance to get there. I think he missed that play, and you can see on the reaction so does Johnson he wanted that ball.

On the 4th down play just pre snap the best play to me is Kirk, because his man is 2 yards deeper. I certainly get why Kyler went to D hop, best player on the field, great hands, and Kyler throws better to his left, but pre snap the guy who figured to be open was Kirk, and he actually was. But it was also a longer throw. And the guy is right the protection there is terrible, that's an 8 yard pass play and Kyler got hit on it full speed, very bad protection

 

[CardsFan1399]

K1 has all of the physical tools (except height) to be a really good QB. How well/willing he is to accept coaching and put in the work will determine whether he remains a decent/good QB vs a really good/great QB. I really hope he humbles himself and continues to grow into the franchise QB we all hope he’ll become.

 

[TaylorSwift]

K1 has all of the physical tools (except height) to be a really good QB. How well/willing he is to accept coaching and put in the work will determine whether he remains a decent/good QB vs a really good/great QB. I really hope he humbles himself and continues to grow into the franchise QB we all hope he’ll become.

Any evidence to the contrary? Or are you making conjecture

 

[CardsFan1399]

Any evidence to the contrary? Or are you making conjecture

No evidence. Just conjecture. Haven’t heard anything to the contrary, but it’s still early in his career so there hasn’t been enough time to see that growth arc.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

3 things. On the INT it actually wasn't empty, which makes the backfoot throw worse. They did blitz, but we had it picked up and because we had Drake in the backfield(he went out on a pass play) Kyler should have at least felt pre snap a bit better, it was really the empty backfield blitzes that hurt us.

On the throw to Kirk down the sideline the guy never mentioned Keesean who seems to be open on that play. I know Kyler may have felt if I throw it there it's more dangerous it's not a catch or out of bounds type of play but the only guy who had a chance to make a play is the CB covering Kirk, and he's got a ways to go to get there. Put the ball out in front and to the left of Johnson and it's a pretty safe bet nobody but Johnson has a chance to get there. I think he missed that play, and you can see on the reaction so does Johnson he wanted that ball.

On the 4th down play just pre snap the best play to me is Kirk, because his man is 2 yards deeper. I certainly get why Kyler went to D hop, best player on the field, great hands, and Kyler throws better to his left, but pre snap the guy who figured to be open was Kirk, and he actually was. But it was also a longer throw. And the guy is right the protection there is terrible, that's an 8 yard pass play and Kyler got hit on it full speed, very bad protection

Main issue is that Kyler and Kirk are both soft players.

Kyler throws off his back foot because he's scared to step into a throw and get hit. We see great QBs do it all the time but Kyler very rarely sacrifices his body for a play. Kirk allows himself to get bullied by the CB on the interception. He also gets bullied on the deep sideline ball. There is ZERO fight from Kirk to get to the ball. He just softly runs behind the corner and let's the ball drop.

 

[BritCard]

You could make the case Kyler's season is also not far off of Deshaun's 3rd year in the league.

Through 15 games
QB A Passing 3852 26 tds 12 ints 67%
98 Passer Rating 71 Total QBR

QB B Passing 3884 26 tds 12 ints 67%
94 Passer Rating 69 QBR

And one of those guys plays in a much tougher division.

Just saying for perspective sake if Kyler's "raw #s" dont improve as much to people's liking next year. Obviously we'd hope to see just better overall play.

Now look at YPA. Watson has something like 1.2 to 1.4 more YPA over his first 2 years.

 

[Russ Smith]

Main issue is that Kyler and Kirk are both soft players.

Kyler throws off his back foot because he's scared to step into a throw and get hit. We see great QBs do it all the time but Kyler very rarely sacrifices his body for a play. Kirk allows himself to get bullied by the CB on the interception. He also gets bullied on the deep sideline ball. There is ZERO fight from Kirk to get to the ball. He just softly runs behind the corner and let's the ball drop.

Kyler has to step into that throw or at least throw set, not backing up.

On Kirk one of the things I love about D Hop is how he high points balls, I keep talking about Jaylen Waddle from Alabama, he's the same size as Kirk, probably an inch shorter even but what I love about Waddle beyond the after the catch stuff and the returns is he is terrific on balls in the air. He just goes up and gets them. Not like Hopkins he's a freak of nature, but for a small guy who plays more in the slot, Waddle is exceptional in the air. I don't want to use a first round pick on offense but I think you can make an argument if we are picking around 18 and Waddle is there he's going to improve your team. Runs after catches, punt returns, he's the guy I hoped Isabella was going to be when we picked him

 

[BritCard]

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1:40-1:44, he had plenty of room, just made a poor throw. Because of throwing off of the back foot.

Most of his poor throws are because he throws off of his backfoot. Whether because its pressure, or K1 thinks there is pressure, probably both.

The 3rd and 6 on the last drive sums up Kyler's issues for me.

Throwing a completely pre determined pass to Kirk in tight coverage when 10 yards away you have Keesean wide open behind the defense ready to house it with a simple pass.

 

[Russ Smith]

Now look at YPA. Watson has something like 1.2 to 1.4 more YPA over his first 2 years.

He does but they play in different offenses and again part of that is Watson will NOT throw the ball away. If you just take 1 a game and say instead of taking the sack, throw the ball away, 2nd year the sacks go from 62 to 46, and the % goes from 68 to 66 and YPA goes from 8.2 to 8. If you throw 2 away a game it drops to 7.75. Still higher than Kyler but again there's a very clear thing with Watson, he holds the ball longer trying to go downfield and make big plays. So he throws for a higher YPA, but he does NOT throw the ball away, it's been a theme his entire NFL career. So his % and his YPA number are higher in part because he's good, and in part because he simply holds the ball when other guys will just throw it away out of bounds. I have no idea how many times Kyler does it but it seems like 2 or 3 a game, if I had to guess I'd say it's probably less so on the order of 1.5 to 2 times a game. That adds up over a season.

Add in the shorter drops and routes by design and some of that YPA is obvious. remember the game with Talib against the Eagles he kept saying they love to run "sticks" on offense which is exactly what it sounds like, most if not all of the routes are to the first down marker. You don't see that with the Texans, they almost always have at least one deeper route it's a staple of their offense.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Now look at YPA. Watson has something like 1.2 to 1.4 more YPA over his first 2 years.

Right...because of Kingsbury's throw way short of the sticks offense.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

Kyler has to step into that throw or at least throw set, not backing up.

On Kirk one of the things I love about D Hop is how he high points balls, I keep talking about Jaylen Waddle from Alabama, he's the same size as Kirk, probably an inch shorter even but what I love about Waddle beyond the after the catch stuff and the returns is he is terrific on balls in the air. He just goes up and gets them. Not like Hopkins he's a freak of nature, but for a small guy who plays more in the slot, Waddle is exceptional in the air. I don't want to use a first round pick on offense but I think you can make an argument if we are picking around 18 and Waddle is there he's going to improve your team. Runs after catches, punt returns, he's the guy I hoped Isabella was going to be when we picked him

Waddle would be an absolute homerun pick for us but I don't think he will be there. He should go pretty early. I'm really hoping either him or Pitts are available. If not, there are some good corners that we may need to pick from at that spot.