Is Moore's Law still effect? (computer data doubling every 18 months)

[cardsunsfan]

I really don't see much of a difference in computers the last 18 months. I could almost get the same computer 18 months ago! I'm pretty sure they had at least 3 ghz processers 18 months ago and the hard drives and graphics cards were similar speeds.

I'm going to miss getting a computer every four years and it being five to six times faster I love to see technology advance, especially when it comes to games I think what might be happening is that the processor companies are gearing to go faster and they are investing a lot of money on new factories and technology so there's a lull for the first time in about 15 yrs...

I have heard some good news though... I'll just put it on another thread.

 

[Chaz]

I think they could go to 4 or 5 GHz basically any time they wanted to. The rest of the parts kind of have to catch up to the processor speeds at this point. It (a faster processor than 3 GHz) doesn't make a computer much faster with out a faster hard drive and perpheral bus.

 

[cardsunsfan]

Yeah but I thought they would have the technology for that too

 

[Chaz]

Yeah but I thought they would have the technology for that too

Well SATA drives are only 1st generation so they will be getting faster. Someday a kind of NV flash memory (like the small thumb drives) may be affordagle for HDD sizes. Another potential fast storage could be optical (holographic) cubes that are read from and written to with a laser, but that could be a while.


Another factor is the slowdown of the Tech industry. The dot com bubble, hangover from y2k upgrades, and terrorism threats are all contributing to computer sales and development slowing down some IMO.

ICs and Processors in particular can keep up with Moore's law, it is the other factors that may be slowing the growth like we have experienced in the past.

 

[cardsunsfan]

have you seen my post on the Play Station III? I here some amazing technology is coming down the pipe line!

 

[AzCards21]

Technologically speaking Moores law is probably still in effect. What I'm seeing more of in the field though is a harder sell to the end user.

By that I mean most companies are sick and tired of upgrading their networks, PC's, Switches, Routers etc. Many are now taking the stance that what they have is more than fast enough to get the job done.

Gamers undoubtedly want even faster speeds but an office environment doesn't necessarily need it.

Is it really worth the extra cost so an employee can access his spreadsheets in .25 seconds vs .5? Most CEO's are thinking it's not.

 

[Ryanwb]

Technologically speaking Moores law is probably still in effect. What I'm seeing more of in the field though is a harder sell to the end user.

By that I mean most companies are sick and tired of upgrading their networks, PC's, Switches, Routers etc. Many are now taking the stance that what they have is more than fast enough to get the job done.

Gamers undoubtedly want even faster speeds but an office environment doesn't necessarily need it.

Is it really worth the extra cost so an employee can access his spreadsheets in .25 seconds vs .5? Most CEO's are thinking it's not.

I agree...I thought for sure that I would be seeing Gigabit-LAN on a wider base by now....but people seem to be happy with their 100 Mbps LAN and aren't going forward.

 

[CaptTurbo]

The tempeture of pc's is getting to the breaking point. Within the next year or two, they need to come up with a whole new processor idea or Moores law will be kaput.

 

[thirty-two]

The tempeture of pc's is getting to the breaking point. Within the next year or two, they need to come up with a whole new processor idea or Moores law will be kaput.

Does that mean that comps are running so fast that the heat will melt their own parts - basically melting itself down?

Wow, that's really interesting. I wish I knew more about computers..

 

[Ryanwb]

The tempeture of pc's is getting to the breaking point. Within the next year or two, they need to come up with a whole new processor idea or Moores law will be kaput.

I thought they had new threading technology that would run at cooler temps? Couldn't they just go water cooled?

 

[Chaz]

Does that mean that comps are running so fast that the heat will melt their own parts - basically melting itself down?

Wow, that's really interesting. I wish I knew more about computers..

Basically that is the case right now. Without the active cooling (fans) and heat sinks the processors would cook themselves. Modern processors generate an enormous amount of heat.