Is Chris Collins running the best rotations for Northwestern men’s basketball?

[ASFN Admin]

You must be registered for see images attach

At the two-thirds point in the Wildcats’ 2025-2026 season, Northwestern sits 9-10, with a disappointing 1-7 mark in Big Ten play. Considering the ‘Cats’ in-conference struggles, it’s critical to consider:

Is Chris Collins running the best rotations for Northwestern?

Context: Collins’ rotations this season​

Over the first ten games or so of the season, the ‘Cats’ rotation was pretty simple. Collins started a Reid-Ciaravino-Martinelli-Singleton-Page lineup, rotating in Max Green, K.J. Windham and Jordan Clayton for quality double-digit bench minutes, while occasionally giving Jake West, Justin Mullins or Tyler Kropp extended playing time depending on the flow of the game.

However, after back-to-back frustrating losses against Oklahoma State and Wisconsin, Collins began to experiment with his rotations. He’s continued to do so recently during the ‘Cats’ rough 1-5 stretch against Big Ten opponents. Here’s the playing time statistics for the ‘Cats in January over their last six games:

• Nick Martinelli: 38.5 minutes per game, 6/6 games started
• Jayden Reid: 27.8 minutes per game, 3/6 games started
• Tre Singleton: 23.0 minutes per game, 6/6 games started
• Jake West: 21.7 minutes per game, 3/6 games started
• Angelo Ciaravino: 19.5 minutes per game, 2/6 games started
• Arrinten Page: 19.3 minutes per game, 2/6 games started
• Jordan Clayton: 18.7 minutes per game, 4/6 games started
• Max Green: 16.8 minutes per game, 1/6 games started
• Tyler Kropp: 9.2 minutes per game, 1/6 games started
• Justin Mullins: 9.0 minutes per game, 2/6 games started
• K.J. Windham: 0.7 minutes per game, 0/6 games started

In these games, the only consistent starters were Martinelli and Singleton, who each started every game this season. Outside of those two forwards, Collins gave eight other players starting nods, with no other individual player starting more than four games.

Though, really, Martinelli is the only player with consistent starter-level minutes, playing 38.5 minutes per game. Reid, who is second in minutes over the six-game stretch, has played significantly less than Martinelli, averaging just 27.8 minutes per game. There’s a bigger gap in minutes played between Martinelli, first in minutes, and Reid, second in minutes, than there is between Reid and Clayton, who is seventh in minutes.

In January, Collins hasn’t really had a consistent rotation. He has intentionally tried to mix things up game after game, knowing that he hasn’t necessarily found a consistent recipe for success during a brutal 1-5 stint for the ‘Cats. He has shown that he’s not afraid to re-evaluate his lineups when something clearly isn’t working, and that should be commended.

However, with twelve games remaining in the regular season, Northwestern is at the point where it needs to find a rotation that it can trust and cling to for success in the final stretch of the season. It’s time to evaluate the many different rotations tested for the past month, and try to let one stick.

Research: Individual Player Performance​

One of the best statistical evaluations of individual player performance comes from EvanMiya.com, which provides a Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) — the sum of a player’s Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating (OBPR) and Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR). BPR essentially measures the net value, per 100 possessions, that an individual player would have if he were on the court playing with nine other average Division 1 basketball players. The higher a player’s BPR, the better.

EvanMiya.com also provides a +/- statistic showing Northwestern’s net point differential when that player has been on the floor.

Here are the BPR (including OBPR and DBPR) and +/- splits for qualifying Northwestern basketball players this season, per EvanMiya.com:

• Nick Martinelli: 5.53 BPR (5.23 OBPR, 0.29 DBPR), +72
• Arrinten Page: 4.45 BPR (2.88 OBPR, 1.57 DBPR), +65
• Jayden Reid: 3.20 BPR (3.48 OBPR, -0.29 DBPR), +25
• Jake West: 2.89 BPR (1.35 OBPR, 1.54 DBPR), +91
• K.J. Windham: +2.62 BPR (1.14 OBPR, 1.48 DBPR), +26
• Angelo Ciaravino: +2.46 BPR (+1.57 OBPR, +0.89 DBPR), +30
• Max Green: +1.99 BPR (+1.70 OBPR, +0.29 DBPR), +73
• Tre Singleton: +1.97 BPR (+0.81 OBPR, +1.16 DBPR), +39
• Justin Mullins: +1.84 BPR (+0.56 OBPR, +1.28 DBPR), +43
• Jordan Clayton: +0.21 BPR (-0.73 OBPR, +0.94 DBPR), +45

Another great single-player statistical evaluator is PORPAGATU! from BartTorvik.com. PORPAGATU! is very similar to EvanMiya.com’s Bayesian player ratings, which estimates points a player creates in a single game relative to an average replacement player. However, PORPAGATU! emphasizes that it is harder to be efficient at higher usage, and hence adjusts a player’s rating to account for the amount they’re being used.

In Big Ten conference games this season, here is Northwestern basketball’s PORPAGATU! splits:

• Nick Martinelli: 7.5
• Jayden Reid: 3.3
• Arrinten Page: 2.5
• Tyler Kropp: 1.9
• Angelo Ciaravino: 1.3
• Jake West: 0.7
• K.J. Windham: 0.5
• Tre Singleton: -0.1
• Max Green: -0.4
• Jordan Clayton: -1.0
• Justin Mullins: -1.1

Looking at both EvanMiya.com’s ratings and PORPAGATU!, a few players stand out.

Arrinten Page: Page is one of Northwestern’s most impactful players, ranking second on the team in BPR and third in conference PORPAGATU!. The narrative has been that Page struggles on the defensive end, but his DBPR is the BEST on the team, showing that he actually has been solid as a rim protector this season. Despite his recent struggles, Page is still one of Northwestern’s stars.

Jake West: West is Northwestern’s second-highest rated guard according to BPR. Importantly, this is because of his performance on the defensive end. West’s 1.54 DBPR is the second-best on the team, significantly better than Reid, his point guard counterpart.

Tre Singleton: Singleton has started every game this season for Northwestern, but statistically, he does not rate as one of Northwestern’s most impactful players. Singleton grades out eighth in both BPR and PORPAGATU!, while placing 6th in +/-.

K.J. Windham: Despite playing extremely limited minutes over the last month, the statistics still say Windham is one of Northwestern’s best role players. In fact, Windham is fifth in BPR, ahead of guards Ciaravino, Mullins, Clayton and Green, who have all played significantly more minutes than him as of late. Additionally, Windham’s 1.48 DBPR ranks third on the team.

Research: Recent rotational success​

And, obviously, it’s also important to look at which rotations have had the most success recently. In January, Northwestern’s two most successful games have been its 74-68 win over USC and its competitive 79-68 loss against an Illinois team currently ranked No. 8 analytically per KenPom.com.

In those two games, the most significant takeaway should come at the point guard position. Reid came off the bench in both bouts, racking up 7 points and 5 assists in 17 minutes against USC and 28 points and 3 assists in 32 minutes against Illinois. There’s no doubt that Reid is the heart of the Wildcats’ offense as the best true offensive point guard on the team, but it has proven to be extremely beneficial for Reid to come off the bench and orchestrate the less-skilled second unit, rather than play most of his minutes with the starters.

In place of Reid, West started against USC and Illinois, putting up 11 points and 3 assists in 34 minutes against USC and 3 points and 2 assists in 21 minutes against Illinois. West’s statistics are less impressive than Reid’s, but what doesn’t show up in the box score are West’s defensive intensity and ability to space the floor.

As seen in EvanMiya.com’s Bayesian performance ratings, West is a significantly better defender than Reid. For a Northwestern team that has struggled defensively, West’s intensity on that end of the floor can set the tone at the start of games.

Additionally, West works better alongside Martinelli and Page, two dominant paint scorers. West is Northwestern’s best three-point shooter, shooting at a 40.0% lick this season. With West on the floor, defenders have to guard him on the perimeter, giving paint players like Martinelli and Page more space to work inside.

By contrast, Reid tends to score driving to the basket, but hasn’t been great from distance this season, shooting just 32.0% on threes. While he might be better in a pick-and-roll, his inability to consistently be a perimeter threat allows defenses to cheat into the paint and takeaway opportunities from Northwestern’s best scorers.

Verdict: Key takeaways moving forward​

So, considering individual player performance and the outcomes of Collins’ recent lineups, here are three takeaways for how Northwestern’s rotations should look moving forward:

• Shuffle the forwards

Based on the analytics, Collins may want to reconsider the way he is allocating minutes to his forwards. Martinelli obviously should play the 38.5 minutes per game he is playing. However, Singleton does not grade well analytically and may not be deserving of 23.0 minutes per game. It’s puzzling, no matter the issues Collins and Page have had, how Page can be playing fewer minutes than Singleton when he has performed so much better. Furthermore, it seems that Kropp deserves more playing time with a solid recent stint as a starter against USC and an impressive 1.9 PORPAGATU! rating that places fourth on the team.

• Jake West starts, Jayden Reid comes off the bench

Reid may be a better player than West, but West playing with the starters works best for this Northwestern team. Both players should be heavily involved in the rotation, playing many overlapping minutes. Yet, West provides defensive intensity and perimeter shooting that Reid doesn’t have, making him more fit to start alongside paint-scorers Martinelli and Page. On the flip side, Reid’s pure point guard presence is probably served best working alongside the second unit.

• Re-consider K.J. Windham

Windham has played in just one of Northwestern’s last seven games, playing just four garbage-time minutes in Northwestern’s blowout loss against Nebraska. From an outsider’s perspective, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense. Obviously, there must be something going on in the locker room that has caused Collins to move away from Windham. But based on his on-court performance this season and last season, which have placed him top five in BPR both seasons, Windham is a player who should be in the rotation for Northwestern.

Continue reading...