Updated: June 22, 2006
No preps, but draft is still stocked with quality
By Jay Bilas
This is the first draft without high school kids being eligible, and there is little certainty about who will be the first pick -- or who should be the first pick -- so the 2006 NBA draft will be quite different from the past several drafts.
Because of the new age limit, Greg Oden is at Ohio State and Kevin Durant is at Texas, so there are several spots open in the first round that would otherwise not have been available. I have heard some say that this is a "weak draft" or a "mediocre draft" because of the perceived lack of superstar-caliber talent, but I tend to disagree a bit with that. Clearly, there is no LeBron-type talent in the draft that makes his selection a no-brainer, but this year's crop of NBA wannabes is pretty deep with good, solid prospects, and many of them will spend years in the NBA.
The problem for NBA teams in this year's draft is that almost every player is to be taken on the come. The vast majority of this year's prospects are future projects, and they will take some time to develop before making a significant impact. Guys like Tyrus Thomas, Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Cedric Simmons, Patrick O'Bryant and Rudy Gay are going to take some time to blossom. There are only a few players who are NBA-ready right now, but there are a lot of bargains out there to be had.
Less than a week before the draft, here are some of my thoughts:
• The draft is not about whether a prospect can play in the NBA. There are 30 teams in the league, so a lot of guys can play in the league. There are always jobs available every year and the NBA is always looking for new blood. There are second-round picks that will make rosters and have long and productive NBA careers, and there are several players who will go undrafted who can and will play in the NBA.
Rather, the draft is about whether a team will make a long-term commitment to a player by selecting him. There is a difference. When a criticism is made about a selection, it does not indicate that a prospect cannot make a team or be a good player in the league, it is about whether the selection was the right commitment given the other prospects available.
• During the draft, I provide my scouting reports on each player. In those scouting reports, I point out the things I believe the player does well and the areas in which I believe the player may be deficient. When talking about whether a player can make a successful transition to the NBA, I raise questions. That is all they are -- just questions, not pronouncements.
I might question whether a player can play the point guard position in the NBA or whether a player can get shots off in traffic against bigger players. To say that Kyle Lowry is not a good shooter and to raise the question of whether he will develop a consistent shot in the NBA is far different than making the pronouncement that Lowry will never be able to shoot it and therefore is a lousy pick.
I tend to question everything in the NBA draft, and so do most GMs. You raise the questions, and the players answer those questions on the court. What could be better?
• The NBA draft is an inexact science and we won't know for a few years whether a player pans out or gets panned. Most players take some time to adjust and develop into NBA players and players have to fit into a certain system in the NBA, so there is precious little you can tell based upon only a year or two.
Because there are only a few players that are NBA-ready out of the gate this year, teams will be making educated judgments as to how these prospects will assimilate and grow in the league. Make no mistake, most NBA personnel are smart, focused and prepared and do an incredible amount of intelligence-gathering for the draft. Gathering "intel" is perhaps the most important job they have.
One thing to keep in mind -- there is more at stake than ever before in the draft, with more money and investment on the line, and these decision-makers have a number of experts at their disposal to help them parse through all of the available information. While some who watch from afar might opine solely on a player's ability level, these teams have looked at detailed medical reports, personality profiles and intelligence test results.
Some players are "flagged" by doctors for medical problems that indicate an inappropriate risk for the team, while some experts flag a player's personality because that player does not project as a dominant player. When a prospect gets red-flagged, teams usually listen to those experts and respect the opinion. Similarly, teams are often looking for players that fit a certain need, style or team culture.
It is not always about the best available player. Teams have a certain risk tolerance, and sometimes a team will take a pass on a player that has too many question marks.
• Players who are skilled and can shoot the ball will command a major premium in this year's draft. The new rules and the way games are being officiated mean that super-skilled players will have an advantage. Players who are deficient in skill areas, like shooting, will drop as a result.
If Kentucky's Rajon Rondo could shoot it, he would command major attention at the top of the draft. Because he does not have to be guarded, some teams will pass on him because they cannot afford to have Rondo's defender sitting in the lap of a star teammate because Rondo cannot knock down a shot.
• The best all-around prospect in this year's draft is Washington's Brandon Roy. If you remember, Roy declared for the draft out of high school and I thought he had snapped his cap. Now, he is the poster boy for staying in school and developing into a true star.
AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
Williams' jump shot can be spotty, but his floor game is not.
While many of today's players want only to be lottery picks or first-rounders and will bolt college as soon as they can, Roy focused instead on having a "career." How much money did Roy sacrifice by staying in school? He probably made a fortune by staying, which nobody ever talks about.
Last year, Sean May banked more jack and established a career path for himself. This year, it is Roy. It would not be a bad pick to select Roy with the No. 1 overall pick. He will be a very good player for a long time in the NBA, because he's mature and he knows how to play.
• The best offensive player in this year's draft is Gonzaga's Adam Morrison. He is NBA-ready on the offensive end and will be a big-time scorer in the league for a long time. Morrison has the size and length to shoot over almost anyone, and he works to get open with a real hunger to score. He does not rebound or defend at a high level, but he should be able to improve in those areas.
He is not, however, a great athlete, and that limits his ceiling a bit, in my judgment. To me, the Larry Bird comparisons are almost laughable. Bird was 6-foot-9 and strong. He rebounded his tail off and posted up. Bird also was a superior passer and defender.
Morrison is a really good prospect, but let's not go overboard with the Bird references here.
• The prospect with the biggest upside in this year's draft is LSU's Thomas. He is a smaller version of Amare Stoudamire. He is a freak of an athlete who can change ends, block shots and rebound out of his area and above the rim. He has the wingspan of a seven-footer and he has good hands with a nice touch. Thomas is the type of player who can develop into a big-time player, but he needs time to polish his raw skills.
• The most difficult player to read is Aldridge of Texas. He is a very good athlete, very skilled, and has a very nice touch on his shot. He can hit a turnaround jumper and a hook, and he can really run the floor. However, he is far from the toughest player in the draft -- physically or mentally -- and, as he has mentioned in predraft interviews, he does not seem to want to play in the post.
He does, however, have really good ability, and these same questions were asked about Toronto's Chris Bosh, who has turned out to be one fine NBA player. Aldridge can be very good in the NBA, but does he warrant one of the top five picks? I had him high on my draft board during the college season, but I have moved some other players ahead of him since.
• Two other players that I really like but give me pause are Kentucky's Rondo and Villanova's Lowry. Both have the chance to be really good pro point guards. Neither, though, can shoot the ball, and that will be a limiting factor for their careers if they do not significantly improve.
I am one that believes that shooting is a skill that can significantly improve over time with hard work and technique (some believe that if you cannot shoot, you simply cannot shoot, and there is a low ceiling for improvement). Before the season, I had Rondo as the best point guard prospect, but UConn's Marcus Williams has moved ahead of him.
• Williams is the best pure point guard prospect and the best pure passer in this year's draft. He can push the ball up the floor and he finds people and delivers it. While he is not a great athlete and needs to get in better condition, Williams is the real deal with the ball in his hands. He is not a great shooter, but he hits big shots. He is not a great defender, but works hard. He had better be to play for Jim Calhoun.
Jay Bilas thinks Brandon Roy is the second-best player in this draft.
• If you need a small forward, and you have the choice between Morrison and Gay, which player would you take? I might take Gay, because Gay has so much potential for greatness in the NBA. Sure, Morrison will be terrific and will sell tickets wherever he goes, but Gay can have an impact on a game in so many different ways and he is still a very young player.
Gay is super-athletic, really long armed, and can rebound, block shots and defend multiple positions. He relies too heavily upon his jump shot right now, but he is still a young player and will learn better how to play as he gains experience. Gay has been questioned for his perceived lack of heart and desire to be great. Well, I had similar questions about Toronto's Charlie Villanueva, and he has been very productive. With some time and development, Gay has all the tools to be truly outstanding.
• The best athlete in the draft is Memphis' Rodney Carney. While most great athletes are characterized as such, Carney is in a different boat. He is a world-class athlete who is an outstanding sprinter and has the chance to be an excellent perimeter defender in the NBA.
Thomas is a freak, but he'd have to get a ride to catch Carney in a race. Just a hair behind Carney in the freak-athlete category are Thomas, Dwyane Mitchell of Louisiana-Lafayette and Randy Foye of Villanova.
• The best perimeter defenders in the draft are Thabo Sefolosha of Switzerland, Bobby Jones of Washington, Kentucky's Rondo and the Ragin' Cajuns' Mitchell. The best shot-blockers are Thomas, Saer Sene of Senegal, UConn's Hilton Armstrong and Duke's Shelden Williams. The best shooters in the draft are Duke's J.J. Redick, Marquette's Steve Novak and West Virginia's Mike Gansey. The best point guard prospects are Williams, Rondo, Lowry, Spain's Sergio Rodriguez and UCLA's Jordan Farmar.
• Italy's Bargnani has been projected to be the No. 1 overall selection, and that very well could happen. He is the real deal as a prospect and has the chance to be a terrific pro.
He is 7-feet and is an outstanding shooter who can get shots off quickly. His shot quickness sets up his drives. Bargnani is a good, but not great, athlete, and he lacks the ability to blow by people. He is not yet physically strong, although he is really competitive and experienced relative to other players his age.
The comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki are a bit misplaced to me, however. Nowitzki is a true 3-man, while Bargnani projects more as a 4 or 5. How many seven-foot 3s are there in the NBA? Also, Nowitzki really gets to the free-throw line with great frequency. Bargnani is not the same type of player.
Of course, when you read about Bargnani, along with the questions about Nowitzki are the questions about Darko Milicic. Is there no middle ground for a kid to be a really good pro without measuring up to Nowitzki? I tend to liken Bargnani to a better Toni Kukoc. It might take him some time, but he has the chance to be an excellent NBA player.
• Here are the first dozen prospects on my 2006 Best Available List, which I do annually for the NBA draft based upon what I think of the player, without regard to projections of where the player will be drafted:
1. Tyrus Thomas, LSU
2. Brandon Roy, Washington
3. Andrea Bargnani, Italy
4. Rudy Gay, UConn
5. Adam Morrison, Gonzaga
6. Shelden Williams, Duke
7. LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas
8. Randy Foye, Villanova
9. Marcus Williams, UConn
10. Patrick O'Bryant, Bradley
11. J.J. Redick, Duke
12. Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas
No preps, but draft is still stocked with quality
By Jay Bilas
This is the first draft without high school kids being eligible, and there is little certainty about who will be the first pick -- or who should be the first pick -- so the 2006 NBA draft will be quite different from the past several drafts.
Because of the new age limit, Greg Oden is at Ohio State and Kevin Durant is at Texas, so there are several spots open in the first round that would otherwise not have been available. I have heard some say that this is a "weak draft" or a "mediocre draft" because of the perceived lack of superstar-caliber talent, but I tend to disagree a bit with that. Clearly, there is no LeBron-type talent in the draft that makes his selection a no-brainer, but this year's crop of NBA wannabes is pretty deep with good, solid prospects, and many of them will spend years in the NBA.
The problem for NBA teams in this year's draft is that almost every player is to be taken on the come. The vast majority of this year's prospects are future projects, and they will take some time to develop before making a significant impact. Guys like Tyrus Thomas, Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Cedric Simmons, Patrick O'Bryant and Rudy Gay are going to take some time to blossom. There are only a few players who are NBA-ready right now, but there are a lot of bargains out there to be had.
Less than a week before the draft, here are some of my thoughts:
• The draft is not about whether a prospect can play in the NBA. There are 30 teams in the league, so a lot of guys can play in the league. There are always jobs available every year and the NBA is always looking for new blood. There are second-round picks that will make rosters and have long and productive NBA careers, and there are several players who will go undrafted who can and will play in the NBA.
Rather, the draft is about whether a team will make a long-term commitment to a player by selecting him. There is a difference. When a criticism is made about a selection, it does not indicate that a prospect cannot make a team or be a good player in the league, it is about whether the selection was the right commitment given the other prospects available.
• During the draft, I provide my scouting reports on each player. In those scouting reports, I point out the things I believe the player does well and the areas in which I believe the player may be deficient. When talking about whether a player can make a successful transition to the NBA, I raise questions. That is all they are -- just questions, not pronouncements.
I might question whether a player can play the point guard position in the NBA or whether a player can get shots off in traffic against bigger players. To say that Kyle Lowry is not a good shooter and to raise the question of whether he will develop a consistent shot in the NBA is far different than making the pronouncement that Lowry will never be able to shoot it and therefore is a lousy pick.
I tend to question everything in the NBA draft, and so do most GMs. You raise the questions, and the players answer those questions on the court. What could be better?
• The NBA draft is an inexact science and we won't know for a few years whether a player pans out or gets panned. Most players take some time to adjust and develop into NBA players and players have to fit into a certain system in the NBA, so there is precious little you can tell based upon only a year or two.
Because there are only a few players that are NBA-ready out of the gate this year, teams will be making educated judgments as to how these prospects will assimilate and grow in the league. Make no mistake, most NBA personnel are smart, focused and prepared and do an incredible amount of intelligence-gathering for the draft. Gathering "intel" is perhaps the most important job they have.
One thing to keep in mind -- there is more at stake than ever before in the draft, with more money and investment on the line, and these decision-makers have a number of experts at their disposal to help them parse through all of the available information. While some who watch from afar might opine solely on a player's ability level, these teams have looked at detailed medical reports, personality profiles and intelligence test results.
Some players are "flagged" by doctors for medical problems that indicate an inappropriate risk for the team, while some experts flag a player's personality because that player does not project as a dominant player. When a prospect gets red-flagged, teams usually listen to those experts and respect the opinion. Similarly, teams are often looking for players that fit a certain need, style or team culture.
It is not always about the best available player. Teams have a certain risk tolerance, and sometimes a team will take a pass on a player that has too many question marks.
• Players who are skilled and can shoot the ball will command a major premium in this year's draft. The new rules and the way games are being officiated mean that super-skilled players will have an advantage. Players who are deficient in skill areas, like shooting, will drop as a result.
If Kentucky's Rajon Rondo could shoot it, he would command major attention at the top of the draft. Because he does not have to be guarded, some teams will pass on him because they cannot afford to have Rondo's defender sitting in the lap of a star teammate because Rondo cannot knock down a shot.
• The best all-around prospect in this year's draft is Washington's Brandon Roy. If you remember, Roy declared for the draft out of high school and I thought he had snapped his cap. Now, he is the poster boy for staying in school and developing into a true star.
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AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
Williams' jump shot can be spotty, but his floor game is not.
While many of today's players want only to be lottery picks or first-rounders and will bolt college as soon as they can, Roy focused instead on having a "career." How much money did Roy sacrifice by staying in school? He probably made a fortune by staying, which nobody ever talks about.
Last year, Sean May banked more jack and established a career path for himself. This year, it is Roy. It would not be a bad pick to select Roy with the No. 1 overall pick. He will be a very good player for a long time in the NBA, because he's mature and he knows how to play.
• The best offensive player in this year's draft is Gonzaga's Adam Morrison. He is NBA-ready on the offensive end and will be a big-time scorer in the league for a long time. Morrison has the size and length to shoot over almost anyone, and he works to get open with a real hunger to score. He does not rebound or defend at a high level, but he should be able to improve in those areas.
He is not, however, a great athlete, and that limits his ceiling a bit, in my judgment. To me, the Larry Bird comparisons are almost laughable. Bird was 6-foot-9 and strong. He rebounded his tail off and posted up. Bird also was a superior passer and defender.
Morrison is a really good prospect, but let's not go overboard with the Bird references here.
• The prospect with the biggest upside in this year's draft is LSU's Thomas. He is a smaller version of Amare Stoudamire. He is a freak of an athlete who can change ends, block shots and rebound out of his area and above the rim. He has the wingspan of a seven-footer and he has good hands with a nice touch. Thomas is the type of player who can develop into a big-time player, but he needs time to polish his raw skills.
• The most difficult player to read is Aldridge of Texas. He is a very good athlete, very skilled, and has a very nice touch on his shot. He can hit a turnaround jumper and a hook, and he can really run the floor. However, he is far from the toughest player in the draft -- physically or mentally -- and, as he has mentioned in predraft interviews, he does not seem to want to play in the post.
He does, however, have really good ability, and these same questions were asked about Toronto's Chris Bosh, who has turned out to be one fine NBA player. Aldridge can be very good in the NBA, but does he warrant one of the top five picks? I had him high on my draft board during the college season, but I have moved some other players ahead of him since.
• Two other players that I really like but give me pause are Kentucky's Rondo and Villanova's Lowry. Both have the chance to be really good pro point guards. Neither, though, can shoot the ball, and that will be a limiting factor for their careers if they do not significantly improve.
I am one that believes that shooting is a skill that can significantly improve over time with hard work and technique (some believe that if you cannot shoot, you simply cannot shoot, and there is a low ceiling for improvement). Before the season, I had Rondo as the best point guard prospect, but UConn's Marcus Williams has moved ahead of him.
• Williams is the best pure point guard prospect and the best pure passer in this year's draft. He can push the ball up the floor and he finds people and delivers it. While he is not a great athlete and needs to get in better condition, Williams is the real deal with the ball in his hands. He is not a great shooter, but he hits big shots. He is not a great defender, but works hard. He had better be to play for Jim Calhoun.
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Jay Bilas thinks Brandon Roy is the second-best player in this draft.
• If you need a small forward, and you have the choice between Morrison and Gay, which player would you take? I might take Gay, because Gay has so much potential for greatness in the NBA. Sure, Morrison will be terrific and will sell tickets wherever he goes, but Gay can have an impact on a game in so many different ways and he is still a very young player.
Gay is super-athletic, really long armed, and can rebound, block shots and defend multiple positions. He relies too heavily upon his jump shot right now, but he is still a young player and will learn better how to play as he gains experience. Gay has been questioned for his perceived lack of heart and desire to be great. Well, I had similar questions about Toronto's Charlie Villanueva, and he has been very productive. With some time and development, Gay has all the tools to be truly outstanding.
• The best athlete in the draft is Memphis' Rodney Carney. While most great athletes are characterized as such, Carney is in a different boat. He is a world-class athlete who is an outstanding sprinter and has the chance to be an excellent perimeter defender in the NBA.
Thomas is a freak, but he'd have to get a ride to catch Carney in a race. Just a hair behind Carney in the freak-athlete category are Thomas, Dwyane Mitchell of Louisiana-Lafayette and Randy Foye of Villanova.
• The best perimeter defenders in the draft are Thabo Sefolosha of Switzerland, Bobby Jones of Washington, Kentucky's Rondo and the Ragin' Cajuns' Mitchell. The best shot-blockers are Thomas, Saer Sene of Senegal, UConn's Hilton Armstrong and Duke's Shelden Williams. The best shooters in the draft are Duke's J.J. Redick, Marquette's Steve Novak and West Virginia's Mike Gansey. The best point guard prospects are Williams, Rondo, Lowry, Spain's Sergio Rodriguez and UCLA's Jordan Farmar.
• Italy's Bargnani has been projected to be the No. 1 overall selection, and that very well could happen. He is the real deal as a prospect and has the chance to be a terrific pro.
He is 7-feet and is an outstanding shooter who can get shots off quickly. His shot quickness sets up his drives. Bargnani is a good, but not great, athlete, and he lacks the ability to blow by people. He is not yet physically strong, although he is really competitive and experienced relative to other players his age.
The comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki are a bit misplaced to me, however. Nowitzki is a true 3-man, while Bargnani projects more as a 4 or 5. How many seven-foot 3s are there in the NBA? Also, Nowitzki really gets to the free-throw line with great frequency. Bargnani is not the same type of player.
Of course, when you read about Bargnani, along with the questions about Nowitzki are the questions about Darko Milicic. Is there no middle ground for a kid to be a really good pro without measuring up to Nowitzki? I tend to liken Bargnani to a better Toni Kukoc. It might take him some time, but he has the chance to be an excellent NBA player.
• Here are the first dozen prospects on my 2006 Best Available List, which I do annually for the NBA draft based upon what I think of the player, without regard to projections of where the player will be drafted:
1. Tyrus Thomas, LSU
2. Brandon Roy, Washington
3. Andrea Bargnani, Italy
4. Rudy Gay, UConn
5. Adam Morrison, Gonzaga
6. Shelden Williams, Duke
7. LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas
8. Randy Foye, Villanova
9. Marcus Williams, UConn
10. Patrick O'Bryant, Bradley
11. J.J. Redick, Duke
12. Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas
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