In The Lab: Carlos Correa and the HOF Index

[ASFN Admin]

You must be registered for see images attach

The Hall of Fame Indexwas first published in 201o. It had been in the works for nearly a decade at that point. The whole point was to establish a systematic way of looking at Hall of Fame candidates and those already in the Hall of Fame. At its best, it measures fitness for the Hall of Fame and aims to put players into groups with other similar players so we can compare them.

The sequel was published in 2020. It obviously updated numbers for players that were currently active, but also adjusted the formula as we got more information. One of the key things in statistical analysis is that we are always learning something new. The formula is similar to JAWS, but has a couple of key differences. First, it combines baseball-reference.com WAR and Fangraphs.com WAR into one number. I do that for two main reasons. First and foremost, the more data the better in most instances. It gives us a cross-section of what keen sabermetric minds feel about a player.

The second reason is that there is always an intellectual divide on these things. The old formulas included win shares, but since Bill James retired, there is no longer an update on current win shares, so that one has been dropped from the formula. Like JAWS, the index includes a peak value element. However, the peak value is made up of ten seasons. I have gotten push back on this and the push back is perfectly reasonable. I chose ten years because you need to play at least ten years to get into the Hall of Fame and ten years gives you slightly more data than the seven years that JAWS brings.

That is important distinction because I do not profile any players until they have been in the league for at least ten seasons. So, as we compare Carlos Correa to his contemporaries, there are five shortstops that make the list. I will not speak for Jay Jaffe (the creator of JAWS) but the index was never meant to rank order players. It was meant to place players into groups with other similar players so that we can directly compare them using other means. I have done this before with Correa, but since we are at the midway point of the 2026 season, it is a good time to revisit it.

Hall of Fame Index​

BWAR	FWAR	BWAR10	FWAR10	Index
Francisco Lindor	55.8	60.9	54.1	58.6	229.4
Trea Turner	41.7	47.7	41.4	47.5	178.3
Carlos Correa	47.1	41.6	44.6	39.3	172.6
Xander Bogaerts	42.9	45.0	39.9	41.7	169.5
Corey Seager	44.1	41.7	42.7	40.9	169.4

I repeat this every time I do this. The index was not meant to rank order players. What we see here is that four of these shortstops are very similar in value. Every player accrues his value differently. So, I am not suggesting that any of them are better or worse than the other. The whole point is that they are similar. Lindor is not similar and that is the first giveaway that he is the Hall of Famer in the group. Obviously, this season has been a wash from him so far, but he is still young enough to put up some good seasons.

The whole point of the index is to compare players with other similar players. If you are similar to players that are in the Hall of Fame and should be then you probably should be in the Hall of Fame. If you are similar to other players that are not in the Hall of Fame then you probably shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame. This seems easy enough but we have seen a number of players that are similar to players not in that somehow get into the Hall of Fame.

Offensive Numbers​

OPS+	rOBA	Rbaser	ROV	OW%
Francisco Lindor	120	.357	22	.299	.601
Trea Turner	118	.366	41	.298	.624
Carlos Correa	124	.358	-4	.293	.597
Xander Bogaerts	113	.351	37	.277	.587
Corey Seager	135	.369	-2	.308	.655

Again, we see some similarities in the offensive numbers with the exception of Corey Seager. Seager ends up looking better in the long run offensively which tells us that either his defense isn’t there or his durability isn’t there. Correa also looks good in this grouping. Probably the one significant weakness at the plate is a lack of speed on the basepaths and that is relative to Bogearts, Turner, and Linfor. If ten runs is equal to a win then we see him lose about three or four wins over the course of his career.

The key point is that no single test qualifies or disqualifies a player. These players are all fairly similar, so this test either qualifies all of them or disqualifies them all. This is why we look at multiple tests before we make any determinations. We need to look at fielding numbers, awards voting, and playoff numbers as well. So far, these players look fairly similar.

Fielding Numbers​

Rfield	DRS	OAA	FRV
Francisco Lindor	52	52	141	116
Trea Turner	-10	-11	23	2
Carlos Correa	56	56	26	22
Xander Boagearts	-72	-70	-17	-16
Corey Seager	19	19	-6	-8

Fielding is one of those subjective things normally and Correa is chief among these. When he was at his best there was no one better. Yet, he has not been a consistent performer with the glove. I’m not sure why that happens. Perhaps fielding is like hitting where fielders go through slumps. Rfield is what B-Ref uses for its WAR formula. It is essentially the same thing as defensive runs saved (DRS). So, the really interesting point happens when we look at outs above average (OAA) and fielding run value (FRV) because that is what Fangraphs uses for its formular.

Lindor obviously separates himself here and we can see why he is head and shoulders above the other shortstops is the index. Simply being the best fielder is not justification by itself. After all, we aren’t putting Mark Belanger in the Hall of Fame. However, when you couple good offense with great defense then you have more than enough to get by. The other three are more or less league average (or worse in Bogearts case), so Correa might have a bit of an edge here over them.

MVP Voting​

Voting	BWAR	Diff	Top
Francisco Linfor	26	19	7	0
Trea Turner	14	13	1	0
Carlos Correa	7	16	-9	1
Xander Bogaerts	11	6	5	0
Corey Seager	15	16	-1	0

The MVP test serves two purposes. First, it is another way of looking at peak value. It answers the question of whether a player was ever the best player in the league. Correa was in 2021. None of the other players were. That doesn’t mean that Correa definitely belongs in or that the other players definitely don’t. It is simply another data point.

Points are weighted based on how high they finished. The BWAR rankings are based in how they finished in BWAR in a particular season. Four of the five players are similar, but we notice Correa is the only one with a negative number. That means he has been under appreciated throughout his career. He never put up gaudy offensive numbers that MVP voters like, but when he was at his best defensively (2021 was his best season) he was worth close to three wins with the glove alone.

Playoff Numbers​

PA	SLASH	HR	Runs	RBI	SB
Francisco Lindor	179	.263/.348/.474	8	24	21	2
Trea Turner	288	.256/.306/.376	6	35	16	14
Carlos Correa	358	.242/.352/.508	18	38	63	1
Xander Bogaerts	219	.230/.301/.378	6	26	21	1
Corey Seager	346	.251/.347/.505	19	55	41	3

The playoff test is idiosyncratic in nature. Ask most casual fans who they would rather have in the playoffs and they would probably answer Seager. Seager is one of our players in MLB history to win the World Series MVP award twice. That fact alone might be enough to get him some Hall of Fame votes. Yet, if you look at the slash statistics, Correa is slightly better and we know he was the better defender as well.

Postseason performance is best used as a tiebreaker. Neither Correa nor Seager really should be considered Hall of Famers at this point. We don’t know how their career will end, so leave the door open and if they are close their postseason records could throw them over the top. However, we are talking about two to three months worth of baseball here. In a 15-20 year career that doesn’t amount to much. So, he is not worthy of the Hall of Fame yet, but if he can put up two or three more good seasons he could find himself in the conversation.

Continue reading...