In the lab: A look at right field offense

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We close out our midseason series on bases per out with a look at Cam Smith and right field. The rules are the same. Qualifying outfielders needed to record at least 120 outs through Friday night’s game action. That left us with 16 qualifying right fielders in the American League. We will be handling the data a little differently this time around. Instead of giving you every player in a table, we are going to focus on the players most relevant to compare with Cam Smith.

However, we should start with Smith himself. Smith is an excellent study in replacement level performance. Officially, he is worth a little more than a win according to FWAR and exactly one win according to BWAR. However, this designations are exclusively due to his defense. If we looked at only the offensive numbers we would be looking at a replacement level hitter.

That by itself is an important point to dwell on. Replacement level players will put up numbers if you give them enough rope. If Smith continues at his current pace, he will likely throw up close to 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases. For many casual fans that will be seen as significant progress over his 2025 totals. However, those numbers would be a function of opportunity and not necessarily more efficient production. Thus lies the difference between counting numbers and performance numbers.

This is a reminder that bases per out are calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and then dividing that sum by the total number of outs. The number is more accurate than OPS because it counts each element once and includes the base running component. For those that peruse various sites, it corresponds most favorably with wOBA and rOBA. I did not invent the stat, but as of this moment, this is the only place you can find it.

Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
2025	351	158	43	8	7	.615
2026	281	125	33	10	4	.612

What do these numbers show? They show that in spite of the fact that Smith is on pace to have more homers, runs, and RBI than he did last season, he actually is nor performing any better than he did last season. Obviously, these numbers are a snapshot in time. A sudden hot streak could change the calculus some, but with each passing day, the impact of said hot streak becomes smaller. In other words, we are looking at the player that Smith likely is.

The harder question comes when we look at what this means long term. The fact that Smith is somewhere between a win and two wins with the glove is not insignificant. If you are looking at an average offensive player who happens to be a Gold Glove level fielder then that carries some weight. The question is how far away from average Smith actually is.

Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
Overal AL	41395	20702	5208	985	690	.666
AL RF Mean	224.3	124.3	27.5	4.7	3.9	.687
AL RF Median	214	114	32	5	4	.678

This means that the right field average and median is pretty close to the overall league average. In past articles we looked at the big league average overall. Clearly, the National League is better than the American League this season. So, the end result is that Smith is not particularly close to average. In fact, only two regular right fielders scored under him in bases per out (Lawrence Butler and Jo Adell).

When looking at where to place a guy you are invested in emotionally, I like to use similarity scores or to simply look at who the player is most similar to. We are invested pretty heavily in Smith either positively or negatively. I have heard fans range anywhere between labeling him as a future star to simply calling him a late inning defensive replacement. Which characterization is closer to the truth? We can find out by comparing him with the right fielders in the American League that are most similar to him.

Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
Leody Taveras	223	95	31	10	1	.614
Nathan Lukes	168	87	13	0	5	.625
Cam Smith	281	125	33	10	4	.612

Now comes the uncomfortable question: how would you feel if the Astros employed Nathan Lukes or Leody Taveras in right field? Lukes is also a plus defender in right field and is also a younger player. Taveras is more of a journeyman who also has played a lot of center field. Taveras is not as good defensively, so his overall value in terms of WAR is not quite as good as Lukes or Smith. However, all three are similar enough to allow for a direct comparison.

We can put it another way. Let’s compare Smith with another historical Astro to see if he has a historical comp that older fans can cling to. Keep in mind that these are raw numbers and the league norms were likely different, but we will make this a Player A and Player B test with their career Astros numbers to give us our direct comparison.

Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
Player A	632	283	76	18	11	.614
Player B	1090	508	137	14	5	.609

Player B looks like the lesser player, but I think everyone can tell that Smith is Player A based on the totals. Player B played in the Astrodome during a time when offensive numbers weren’t quite what they are now. So, if we compared these numbers with the overall league and positional average I am sure we would find very similar results. So, who is Player B? That is Eric Anthony as an Astro.

Anthony was about as hot a prospect as the Astros have ever had. The hope was that he could team with Glenn Davis to give the Astros a nice one-two power punch in the order. Obviously, the Astros would go onto trade Davis prior to the 1991 season in a deal that will go down as one of the best in Astros history. Anthony would never hit more than 19 home runs in a season and would be out of the big leagues by the time he was 29 years old.

The fact that Smith is beging compared to a hot prospect that ultimately fizzled out is disturbing. That obviously feeds into the next question: why did these two fizzle out? Of course, we don’t know if that will be Smith’s fate, but the decision to rush him to the majors last year will be a large part of what Jim Crane has to think about when considering whether to give Dana Brown a contract. The possibilities are infinite. This could be a blip on the radar as maybe Smith figures things out in year three or four at the big league level. He could plateau. If that is the case then that could be because that was always what Smith was going to be. It could also be that the decision to rush him stunted his development. Where do you stand on Cam Smith? Will he get better or is this who Cam Smith is?

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