If the Suns get the #1 pick in the draft

[Mainstreet]

The bottom line is that Toppin, Okongwu, Achiuwa, and (maybe) Wiseman are the only (likely) lottery picks who could potentially fill a need for the Suns next year. Yes, they could take one of the project PGs with some upside to eventually replace Rubio. But that doesn't do squat to help in the near term, and all of those are as likely to be busts as to turn into legit NBA guys.

Taking anyone else like Edwards, Avidja, etc. does nothing to move the needle for us. Not to mention they have a high possibility of busting, too. At least if you take someone who fills a real immediate need and they don't work out, you can't be faulted for not trying.

I like the big men you mention although I wouldn't rule out some of the taller guards with an early pick.

If the Suns haven't scouted the players extensively I'd feel safer with the 4-5 position.

 

[Mainstreet]

I was watching scouting video on Obi Toppin. See below.

Toppin has the full package offensively and he could teach Ayton how to dunk.

However, defense is a real concern. At about the 5:28 mark his weaknesses are shown. Interior defense will be an issue.

On a side note, I was wowed by Udoka Azubuike (#35) from Kansas as a backup center candidate.

Too bad the Suns do not have a second round pick or maybe they can buy one in the draft.

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[Mainstreet]

James Wiseman is the rim protector everyone wants but he struggles with interior defense as well.

Toppin is the better offensive player but Wiseman has more potential with a reported 9'5" standing reach.

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[WhyAlwaysMe]

Wiseman would get murdered on switches with quick guards. They are never ever ever drafting him with DA already on the roster.

Edwards fills a huge need obviously, as the team desperately needs both perimeter defense and most importantly someone that can create his own shot. I am bullish on Edwards’ spot-up shooting as well.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I'd feel better about Bender if he'd gone late in the first round and yeah, I'd feel much worse if we'd drafted him first. It isn't about courage, it's about making good decisions.

Give me a Lebron or Tim Duncan year and I'd love to have the first pick but there are seasons where you're almost forced into swinging for the fences even when you suspect you're not going to be able to get around on that fastball. If you like the pick, sure, take your shot, but right now I'm not sure I see anyone with top pick credentials.

The point is that higher picks are ALWAYS more valuable. I wonder why that is? I’m guessing it’s because teams value actual value over fear of “missing” lol.

Again, I think Edwards has a very high floor as a useful NBA player. Even if he doesn’t “hit” and never becomes a knock down shooter he is big and athletic enough to guard 1-3, and he’s a huge favorite to be a very good scorer. Suns fans that equate him with Josh Jackson would be well-advised to compare

1. Age during Fr year (Josh was 18 months older)
2. 3pt volume and FT%, both heavy makers in Edwards’ favor, and both huge predictors for shooting prognosis
3. Team strength: Josh was on team with three other NBA players; Edwards played with garbage.

 

[Mainstreet]

Wiseman would get murdered on switches with quick guards. They are never ever ever drafting him with DA already on the roster.

Edwards fills a huge need obviously, as the team desperately needs both perimeter defense and most importantly someone that can create his own shot. I am bullish on Edwards’ spot-up shooting as well.

I think Wiseman is getting too much love on his measurements and potential.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I don't think anyone here is scared of picking #1 overall, it's maximizing the value of that pick. Sort of like how Boston did when they got the #1 pick a few years back and traded down to #3 to take Tatum. They said they would have taken Tatum #1 but why should they do that when they can take him at #3, save some money, and add other assets.

There are also different salary cap implications to consider between drafting #1 and #4, and even further back. If Bender were selected in the teens or twenties then I think the Suns would have picked up his 4th year option but he was due too high of a salary for year 4 as the #4 pick. The Suns would have been on the hook for $7.45 million in his 4th year compared to $10.24 million if he was the #1 overall pick that draft. If he fell all the way to 14th though his salary would have been $4.26 million for his 4th year. Paying that for a player who is still a project is easier to swallow than $7.5 million, which should be enough to get a decent rotation player.

I also think the talent disparity in this current draft isn't that great between whoever goes #1 and #5, which is why I'd rather take #5. I know LaMelo, Wiseman, and Edwards have higher potential than most but it also seems like they all have higher bust potential. I'd rather take a player like Toppin whose talent isn't that far off from those 3 but odds of busting are less. Reaching for him at #1 makes very little sense though because you'd pay him as the #1 overall pick and there are other teams out there who would give up assets for that #1 pick because they want a player like Wiseman, who doesn't project to last to #4 in this draft.

Boston drafted well, and that was a great deal. But it’s the exception to the rule that those deals happen, and please also compare that deal with Atlanta trading down and passing on Luka for Trae (whoops) and what became a mid lotto pick (Reddish lol).

Trading down isn’t always smart, although I do appreciate getting more bites at the apple given how the draft is difficult to predict.

I think Edwards is clearly better (raw value and absolute value for the Suns) than Toppin (who is instantly a liability on defense) or LaMelo (I’ve already described his shortcomings). I think his floor is extremely high. Killian Hayes is the only other guy that I can see being so clearly a good NBA player on a great team.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I think Wiseman is getting too much love on his measurements and potential.

Compare his defensive tape in space to Ayton’s from Arizona, and DA looks like Draymond Green.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The point is that higher picks are ALWAYS more valuable. I wonder why that is? I’m guessing it’s because teams value actual value over fear of “missing” lol.

Again, I think Edwards has a very high floor as a useful NBA player. Even if he doesn’t “hit” and never becomes a knock down shooter he is big and athletic enough to guard 1-3, and he’s a huge favorite to be a very good scorer. Suns fans that equate him with Josh Jackson would be well-advised to compare

1. Age during Fr year (Josh was 18 months older)
2. 3pt volume and FT%, both heavy makers in Edwards’ favor, and both huge predictors for shooting prognosis
3. Team strength: Josh was on team with three other NBA players; Edwards played with garbage.

Before the fact, of course they are. I'm not arguing against that point. You're trying to boil this argument down to one thing and that's not fair. I've never said I'd pass on getting the first pick because I'm afraid the guy might fail. I'm saying you factor that in along with a lot of other considerations.

As for Jackson, I didn't like him coming out of college and I can see why some compare them but I agree, it's a poor comp. Like I said earlier, my biggest concern with Edwards is mental. Will he accept coaching? If he's coachable which also means he becomes a team player, I think he'd be a great fit next to Booker long term even though Devin would need to spend more time at the point.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Before the fact, of course they are. I'm not arguing against that point. You're trying to boil this argument down to one thing and that's not fair. I've never said I'd pass on getting the first pick because I'm afraid the guy might fail. I'm saying you factor that in along with a lot of other considerations.

As for Jackson, I didn't like him coming out of college and I can see why some compare them but I agree, it's a poor comp. Like I said earlier, my biggest concern with Edwards is mental. Will he accept coaching? If he's coachable which also means he becomes a team player, I think he'd be a great fit next to Booker long term even though Devin would need to spend more time at the point.

You should watch the Schmitz video with Edwards: he comes across extremely well from a BBIQ standpoint, and is very self-critical and open to criticism.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You should watch the Schmitz video with Edwards: he comes across extremely well from a BBIQ standpoint, and is very self-critical and open to criticism.

Thanks, I'll give it a look.

 

[Mainstreet]

I guess we should look at Anthony Edwards using the same source for a scouting breakdown.

Initial thought, I think of RJ Barrett because neither are pure shooters and rely on athleticism.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/anthony-edwards

http://www.tankathon.com/players/r-j-barrett

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[Mainstreet]

You should watch the Schmitz video with Edwards: he comes across extremely well from a BBIQ standpoint, and is very self-critical and open to criticism.

I like Edward's willingness to except criticism and that he is hungry to learn.

Has the capability to be a combo guard with his ability to penetrate and pass off. He should be a good defender with concentration and can switch to bigger players on defense. He likes how Jimmy Butler plays defense. That's a plus.

It's all about effort. He has the potential to be a star.

 

[Hoop Head]

I guess we should look at Anthony Edwards using the same source for a scouting breakdown.

Initial thought, I think of RJ Barrett because neither are pure shooters and rely on athleticism.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/anthony-edwards

http://www.tankathon.com/players/r-j-barrett

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I see RJ Barrett also and that scares me. Anthony Edwards does a
lot of things well but isn't great at any one thing. Unlike RJ though I don't think Edwards can play the point. Maybe he can but I think we'd struggle to find minutes for him either way.

Since it doesn't look like he'll be a special can't miss talent, I'd go for a player who fits the current construction of the team better.

 

[Mainstreet]

I see RJ Barrett also and that scares me. Anthony Edwards does a
lot of things well but isn't great at any one thing. Unlike RJ though I don't think Edwards can play the point. Maybe he can but I think we'd struggle to find minutes for him either way.

Since it doesn't look like he'll be a special can't miss talent, I'd go for a player who fits the current construction of the team better.

We see the same thing... he is so raw... but he is intriguing.

Edwards can get anywhere he wants on the court. If he ever figures out how to pass out of double teams and refines his shot he is going to be really good.

The trouble for the Suns that's too many "ifs." I don't think they can afford it with Devin Booker on a timetable. Also they already took on too many projects that didn't work out: Bender, Chriss and Jackson.

 

[mjb21aztd]

Do the suns really have a shot at num 1? I bet warrior's get it to help steph

If so I'd take weisman to go with ayton

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Barrett is not a good comp for Edwards.

Edwards reminds me a lot more of Jaylen Brown.

Barrett is much craftier but not nearly the same athlete.

 

[Mainstreet]

Do the suns really have a shot at num 1? I bet warrior's get it to help steph

If so I'd take weisman to go with ayton

I did the lottery simulator at Tankathon ten times.

Usually I get a variety of results like a number 11 or 12 thrown into the mix or another pick below the first pick. Mostly I get the 10th pick.

This is the first time I recall getting the #1 pick in ten tries.

[10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1, 10, 10, 10, 10]

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

 

[AzStevenCal]

Do the suns really have a shot at num 1? I bet warrior's get it to help steph

If so I'd take weisman to go with ayton

Not likely but stranger things have happened. I'm leery of Wiseman but that's typical of this draft class.

 

[JerkFace]

I did the lottery simulator at Tankathon ten times.

Usually I get a variety of results like a number 11 or 12 thrown into the mix or another pick below the first pick. Mostly I get the 10th pick.

This is the first time I recall getting the #1 pick in ten tries.

[10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1, 10, 10, 10, 10]

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I was all over the place:

11, 10, 4, 11, 10, 10, 3, 4, 10, 10

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I was all over the place:

11, 10, 4, 11, 10, 10, 3, 4, 10, 10

10 tries:

12 - one time
11- four times
10 - three times
1 - twice

they had us picking Cole Anthony 7 seven times, obi once (with a 10th pick) and melo twice (with the #1’s).

 

[Mainstreet]

I was all over the place:

11, 10, 4, 11, 10, 10, 3, 4, 10, 10

I'd take your results over mine... 4, 4, 3 is better than lucking into only one pick inside the top.

There is not a clear number 1 pick in the draft although it might provide trade down opportunities.

 

[SunnyBaller]

The sun's had a great chance at atleast a top 2 last year and got screwed over so they will probably have good luck when their odds are terrible.

 

[Phrazbit]

I am surprised at the Wiseman love, both here and on draft boards. He scares the hell out of me. He doesn't seem to give a crap about defense, he rapidly quit on his college team under bizarre circumstances.

Ayton's biggest contributions are the spacing he provides on offense and his defensive abilities, the growth of which this last season are stunning. Wiseman's red flags are him being a serious lane clogger (not in a good way, teams know he isn't a threat from beyond 3 feet AND he can't pass, and he is a disinterested defender who only seeks blocks.

In the modern NBA it would be hard to create a worse pairing for Ayton that Wiseman. If I am the Suns I wouldn't take him... period, he wouldn't be on the board. If someone else is dying to draft him then trade out of the slot and find someone who makes sense.

 

[Mainstreet]

I am surprised at the Wiseman love, both here and on draft boards. He scares the hell out of me. He doesn't seem to give a crap about defense, he rapidly quit on his college team under bizarre circumstances.

Ayton's biggest contributions are the spacing he provides on offense and his defensive abilities, the growth of which this last season are stunning. Wiseman's red flags are him being a serious lane clogger (not in a good way, teams know he isn't a threat from beyond 3 feet AND he can't pass, and he is a disinterested defender who only seeks blocks.

In the modern NBA it would be hard to create a worse pairing for Ayton that Wiseman. If I am the Suns I wouldn't take him... period, he wouldn't be on the board. If someone else is dying to draft him then trade out of the slot and find someone who makes sense.

Initially I thought Wiseman could play some center and be defensive help beside Ayton. The more I watched video of him though I realize how limited his game is. Also I think a lot of posters were looking for a safe pick to either keep or trade if it doesn't work out. Ayton could play power forward to spread the court. However, as I said earlier, with all the Suns forwards, a twin tower look is not the way to go especially in the modern NBA.