If the Draft Were Tomorrow

[oaken1]

Would you be willing to trade away next years 1st along with other big considerations to move back into the first round this year? Take an OT and WR and get ready to challenge for the NFC next year.

Miami has 3 first round picks, Las Vegas has 2, Minnesota has 2, San Francisco has 2, Jacksonville has 2.

Gotta give them multiple picks and a player probably. Worth it?

no.
the first round of this particular draft just is not that good.

 

[Solar7]

Would you be willing to trade away next years 1st along with other big considerations to move back into the first round this year? Take an OT and WR and get ready to challenge for the NFC next year.

Miami has 3 first round picks, Las Vegas has 2, Minnesota has 2, San Francisco has 2, Jacksonville has 2.

Gotta give them multiple picks and a player probably. Worth it?

Personally, no. We've been very mismanaged, and need elite young talent really badly. A top defensive player or OT is worth so much more than two guys filling a minor role.

 

[Stout]

i also think some context is in order: LSU was up 17-3 at the half, and 31-3 in the 3rd quarter

for half the game, it was obvious passing situations

the thing with Chaisson: 3.5 sacks for the regular season, in situations where teams were throwing constantly trying to catch up.

if he didnt produce in college, why will he produce in the NFL?

Bucky Brooks said it best: do you get Danielle Hunter, or, Barkavious Mingo? no way do you take this player with a top half of the first round pick.

That's all I need to know. Pass!

 

[Chopper0080]

That's all I need to know. Pass!

Don't get too enamored with that. Danielle Hunter was the same way out of LSU and is one of the best EDGE players in the NFL now.

Chaisson is similar to Brian Burns for me last year. I really liked him, but there was a cap on how high I would take him. I like Chaisson, but I am not taking him unless I trade back to the bottom third of the first round. Significant risk vs reward player. I have not heard of any character concerns so it is just limited production, size, and injury history that you have to be comfortable with.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

i dunno

that also describes Robert Nkemdiche, but at least it was only the 28th pick was used on that gamble

you dont need to use a top 10 pick on a projection

Two things:
1. Diche did not play an elite position. One-Gap DE isn’t EDGE/OLB.
2. Diche had character red flags that manifested into serious effort/work ethic issues during college. Not to mention his bizarre behavior/arrests (which mean less to me than on-field manifestations of character flaws, but are still a mark to consider).

Chaisson is considered a better person than player from all accounts I’ve read. He won the 18 shirt at LSU, he has insane work ethic (training + film), and everything suggests he wants to be great. Diche was enormously complacent, and talent only gets you so far in a league where everyone has it.

I don’t believe any of his injury issues were systematic and/or likely to recur. He came off the ACL and was MORE EXPLOSIVE.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Don't get too enamored with that. Danielle Hunter was the same way out of LSU and is one of the best EDGE players in the NFL now.

Chaisson is similar to Brian Burns for me last year. I really liked him, but there was a cap on how high I would take him. I like Chaisson, but I am not taking him unless I trade back to the bottom third of the first round. Significant risk vs reward player. I have not heard of any character concerns so it is just limited production, size, and injury history that you have to be comfortable with.

Brian Burns had an elite rookie year. His sack rate was ~25% better than Bosa’s. His QB hit rate was also better than Bosa’s.

You snap take Burns at #8 in this draft.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

2019 Redraft
1. Kyler
2. Josh Allen
3. Burns
4. Bosa
5. Deebo

imho

theme of 2-4 is why I’m high on Chaisson. He has those guys’ traits and plays their position.

 

[Proximo]

Everything is a gamble: it’s the NFL draft. I would rather gamble on
(1) elite traits
(2) at an elite position
(3) at a massive area of need

Really, “playing it safe” doesn’t make as much sense for a team that needs to improve a ton to be competitive.

History shows more times than not drafting a player with elite traits but low production is a bad idea. Most of the time they never raise their production level up to their physical skills.

It is almost always better to draft an average to good athlete with good production.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

History shows more times than not drafting a player with elite traits but low production is a bad idea. Most of the time they never raise their production level up to their physical skills.

It is almost always better to draft an average to good athlete with good production.

I won’t argue that elite traits + production is better than every other alternative. This is why Simmons is better than Chaisson and maybe more valuable given position.

History shows most 1st rd picks fail. History is harsh.

I completely disagree with drafting average to good athletes with good production. I would LOVE for Kyler to only go up against average to good athletes. Elite players carve up average-good athletes.

I think Wills and Thomas are both excellent athletes that produced at a very high level at their positions. That’s why they’re > Wirfs (who also has elite traits but wasn’t very productive). Becton is much more of an unknown to me. With a good oline coach he’s a decent gamble imo.

 

[football karma]

IMO: high first round grade means (setting QB aside);

1. ideal or plus physical attributes for the position: size, speed, athleticism
2. At least acceptable character
3. Production in college
4. High level competition

if you cant check all four of those boxes, I don't think you are a top 15 prospect in a normal NFL draft. Maybe you give on #4 a bit if 1-3 are outstanding...….

so im being dogmatic here, but that's why Chaisson isn't a top half kind of prospect. I just think you get Leonard Floyd, part 2.

I get the Danielle Hunter comps, but Hunter was a 3rd round pick.

 

[TheCardFan]

Brian Burns had an elite rookie year. His sack rate was ~25% better than Bosa’s. His QB hit rate was also better than Bosa’s.

You snap take Burns at #8 in this draft.

I don't understand the Brian Burns comparison. BB was much more productive in college than Chaisson.

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

IMO: high first round grade means (setting QB aside);

1. ideal or plus physical attributes for the position: size, speed, athleticism
2. At least acceptable character
3. Production in college
4. High level competition

if you cant check all four of those boxes, I don't think you are a top 15 prospect in a normal NFL draft. Maybe you give on #4 a bit if 1-3 are outstanding...….

so im being dogmatic here, but that's why Chaisson isn't a top half kind of prospect. I just think you get Leonard Floyd, part 2.

I get the Danielle Hunter comps, but Hunter was a 3rd round pick.

There is huge variability within each category. A player can have + traits and not be in the same galaxy as Ruggs or Simmons.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I don't understand the Brian Burns comparison. BB was much more productive in college than Chaisson.

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

When healthy they have very similar production. They play a very similar style (albeit Burns is longer).

Idk what to say other than watch videos, and look at the damn speed.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

IMO: high first round grade means (setting QB aside);

1. ideal or plus physical attributes for the position: size, speed, athleticism
2. At least acceptable character
3. Production in college
4. High level competition

if you cant check all four of those boxes, I don't think you are a top 15 prospect in a normal NFL draft. Maybe you give on #4 a bit if 1-3 are outstanding...….

so im being dogmatic here, but that's why Chaisson isn't a top half kind of prospect. I just think you get Leonard Floyd, part 2.

I get the Danielle Hunter comps, but Hunter was a 3rd round pick.

hunter being extremely underdrafted (by literally 85 picks) makes my point well.

 

[TheCardFan]

He is fast for sure.

You could certainly argue that he wasn't healthy in 2019 (ACL) and point to his production in the last 4 games (4.5 sacks).

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[TheCardFan]

If we step back a minute and look at the biggest needs...

IMO, its G, DE, and OLB (true pass rusher) for this year. I think our interior line is a bigger need/weaker position than our T's.

G - Wirfs is probably the only guy that could step in day 1 at guard and start (maybe Wills or Becton but I am not sure). If we wait until round 3...it's far less likely.

DE - I don't think we draft a guy like Derrick Brown because we just signed Jordan Phillips. We need a penetrating DE...I think we would take Kinlaw.

OLB - Chaisson is an athletic freak. Kennard can be cut after year 1 with <4m in dead money.

OT is also a need. Wills is the most pro ready RT in the draft. With a shortened off season, would we expect him to come in and beat out Murray and Gilbert at RT?

 

[Proximo]

I won’t argue that elite traits + production is better than every other alternative. This is why Simmons is better than Chaisson and maybe more valuable given position.

History shows most 1st rd picks fail. History is harsh.

I completely disagree with drafting average to good athletes with good production. I would LOVE for Kyler to only go up against average to good athletes. Elite players carve up average-good athletes.

I think Wills and Thomas are both excellent athletes that produced at a very high level at their positions. That’s why they’re > Wirfs (who also has elite traits but wasn’t very productive). Becton is much more of an unknown to me. With a good oline coach he’s a decent gamble imo.

When I say average athleticism, I am referring to NFL average, not average for the human population.

It depends on the position, for instance I would never draft a WR, RB, Safety or Corner than ran a 4.6 or slower.

Athleticism of olineman though is not very important, as long as they are strong. Same with DT's

My main point is I hate the idea of drafting combine hero's that had little production in college. There is usually a good reason for that.

 

[football karma]

hunter being extremely underdrafted (by literally 85 picks) makes my point well.

"a long shot bet paid off" --- is really different from "all long shot bets will payoff"

the Hunter doppelganger is Barkavious Mingo or Arden Key

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

If we step back a minute and look at the biggest needs...

IMO, its G, DE, and OLB (true pass rusher) for this year. I think our interior line is a bigger need/weaker position than our T's.

G - Wirfs is probably the only guy that could step in day 1 at guard and start (maybe Wills or Becton but I am not sure). If we wait until round 3...it's far less likely.

DE - I don't think we draft a guy like Derrick Brown because we just signed Jordan Phillips. We need a penetrating DE...I think we would take Kinlaw.

OLB - Chaisson is an athletic freak. Kennard can be cut after year 1 with <4m in dead money.

OT is also a need. Wills is the most pro ready RT in the draft. With a shortened off season, would we expect him to come in and beat out Murray and Gilbert at RT?

The second closest athletic comp to Brown on mockdraftables is Phillips, so I can definitely see the redundancy.

Kinlaw is pretty damn good. I would be very happy if he’s the guy.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

"a long shot bet paid off" --- is really different from "all long shot bets will payoff"

the Hunter doppelganger is Barkavious Mingo or Arden Key

I’m not saying Chaisson hits every time. Not even close. I’ll take a 33-40% chance at an elite player at elite position over solid guard 80% of the time. Not even close.

 

[slanidrac16]

Definitely... maybe?

...dave

Lol! Yep! I could say yes and I could say no. Would I say maybe? I might!

 

[Cardiac]

If we step back a minute and look at the biggest needs...

IMO, its G, DE, and OLB (true pass rusher) for this year. I think our interior line is a bigger need/weaker position than our T's.

G - Wirfs is probably the only guy that could step in day 1 at guard and start (maybe Wills or Becton but I am not sure). If we wait until round 3...it's far less likely.

DE - I don't think we draft a guy like Derrick Brown because we just signed Jordan Phillips. We need a penetrating DE...I think we would take Kinlaw.

OLB - Chaisson is an athletic freak. Kennard can be cut after year 1 with <4m in dead money.

OT is also a need. Wills is the most pro ready RT in the draft. With a shortened off season, would we expect him to come in and beat out Murray and Gilbert at RT?

Needs IMO:

DE - Draft chart shows Allen as a starter, I liked him as a draft pick but he got so little playing time we know almost nothing more about his abilities. If Allen is the starter then our depth is a concern as well. I like Kinlaw as well.

OT - The best we can say about Murray is he doesn't suck. Gilbert, I like the low risk high reward signing but can we really count on him to stay healthy?

OLB - no depth and always a position of need because of it's importance.

OC- Cole is a big ? at this point. I would rather have addressed this in FA but the CAP space wasn't there.

OG - Sweezy and Pugh are adequate starters but I agree could be upgraded.

The interior Oline should be addressed in rd 3 or 4 of this draft.

An OT taken in Rd1 might end up starting because of injuries. I don't think we can expect only one injury to a starter like last year.

 

[daves]

OT is also a need. Wills is the most pro ready RT in the draft. With a shortened off season, would we expect him to come in and beat out Murray and Gilbert at RT?

If he does, that would make him a decent pick at 8. If he doesn't, but is able to start at RG next season after Sweezy is gone, that would still probably make him a good pick in the early teens.

...dbs

 

[TheCardFan]

Daniel Jeremiah's latest rankings:

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[TheCardFan]

FWIW - 2019

You must be registered for see images attach