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STARKVILLE — Mississippi State baseball has played Georgia four times during the 2026 season and lost all four of those games to the SEC regular season and tournament champions.
That's who MSU must get through to reach the College World Series.
No. 14 Mississippi State (43-17) is matched up with No. 3 Georgia (49-12) in the Athens Super Regional. The best-of-three series at Foley Field will start on either June 5 or 6.
Both teams went undefeated in their regional. Mississippi State will be playing in its first super regional since winning the 2021 national championship.
"We may or may not win," MSU coach Brian O'Connor said May 31. "I don't know. I believe we will, but the mentality will be right. I can assure you that we won't back down because, again, that's one of the foundations of what we're about.
"I have zero concern about this team settling for just winning a regional. I know their goals are much higher than that."
Here is our prediction for the Athens Super Regional.
Mississippi State got swept by Georgia at Dudy Noble Field in April, but MSU starting pitcher Ryan McPherson was injured and did not play. McPherson is back now from his forearm strain, completing MSU's trio of starting pitchers that should have an edge over Georgia.
Mississippi State's starters — McPherson, Tomas Valincius and Duke Stone — were spectacular in the Starkville Regional, combining to allow just five runs in 18⅓ innings.
Mississippi State's offense will be facing Georgia's starters for a second time, or even a third time if Joey Volchko starts. That can be beneficial.
MORE: How Mississippi State's Ryan McPherson plan worked perfectly in dominant regional
All-SEC first-team third baseman Tre Phelps is suspended for Game 1 of the super regional after getting ejected against Liberty on May 31. He is hitting .370 with 19 home runs and 57 RBIs, taking a really good batter out of Georgia's lineup.
Georgia still has a stacked lineup even without Phelps though.
Daniel Jackson was the SEC Player of the Year with a .396 batting average, 29 home runs and 83 RBIs. Three other Georgia players, Brennan Hudson, Michael O'Shaughnessy and Kolby Branch, have more than 16 home runs. Seven of Georgia's starters in the regional final are batting over .300.
Georgia has one of the best offenses in the country, but all four of its wins against Mississippi State were by three or less runs, including one game in extra innings.
Mississippi State outscored its opponents 39-11 in the Starkville Regional, but O'Connor pointed to some areas that still need improvement.
"We need to tighten up some things in our bullpen, and our base running can get a little bit better," he said. "I still feel like our two-strike approach can get better, even though I think 12 or 13 of our hits tonight were with two strikes."
Mississippi State's relief pitching was not super sharp in the regional, and that could be problematic if the starters struggle against Georgia.
Georgia will win the super regional, 2-1.
Mississippi State's starting pitching should lead to one win, but the bullpen concerns are legitimate, especially against Georgia's potent offense. MSU has also struggled to beat elite teams this season.
However, O'Connor has won seven of the nine super regionals he's coached in his career, so expect a super competitive series.
Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X @sklarsam_.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State baseball vs Georgia prediction in NCAA super regional
Continue reading...
That's who MSU must get through to reach the College World Series.
No. 14 Mississippi State (43-17) is matched up with No. 3 Georgia (49-12) in the Athens Super Regional. The best-of-three series at Foley Field will start on either June 5 or 6.
Both teams went undefeated in their regional. Mississippi State will be playing in its first super regional since winning the 2021 national championship.
"We may or may not win," MSU coach Brian O'Connor said May 31. "I don't know. I believe we will, but the mentality will be right. I can assure you that we won't back down because, again, that's one of the foundations of what we're about.
"I have zero concern about this team settling for just winning a regional. I know their goals are much higher than that."
Here is our prediction for the Athens Super Regional.
Mississippi State's advantage is in starting pitching
Mississippi State got swept by Georgia at Dudy Noble Field in April, but MSU starting pitcher Ryan McPherson was injured and did not play. McPherson is back now from his forearm strain, completing MSU's trio of starting pitchers that should have an edge over Georgia.
Mississippi State's starters — McPherson, Tomas Valincius and Duke Stone — were spectacular in the Starkville Regional, combining to allow just five runs in 18⅓ innings.
Mississippi State's offense will be facing Georgia's starters for a second time, or even a third time if Joey Volchko starts. That can be beneficial.
MORE: How Mississippi State's Ryan McPherson plan worked perfectly in dominant regional
Can Mississippi State take advantage of suspended Georgia star?
All-SEC first-team third baseman Tre Phelps is suspended for Game 1 of the super regional after getting ejected against Liberty on May 31. He is hitting .370 with 19 home runs and 57 RBIs, taking a really good batter out of Georgia's lineup.
Georgia still has a stacked lineup even without Phelps though.
Daniel Jackson was the SEC Player of the Year with a .396 batting average, 29 home runs and 83 RBIs. Three other Georgia players, Brennan Hudson, Michael O'Shaughnessy and Kolby Branch, have more than 16 home runs. Seven of Georgia's starters in the regional final are batting over .300.
Georgia has one of the best offenses in the country, but all four of its wins against Mississippi State were by three or less runs, including one game in extra innings.
What Brian O'Connor said needs to be better after regional
Mississippi State outscored its opponents 39-11 in the Starkville Regional, but O'Connor pointed to some areas that still need improvement.
"We need to tighten up some things in our bullpen, and our base running can get a little bit better," he said. "I still feel like our two-strike approach can get better, even though I think 12 or 13 of our hits tonight were with two strikes."
Mississippi State's relief pitching was not super sharp in the regional, and that could be problematic if the starters struggle against Georgia.
Mississippi State baseball vs Georgia prediction for Athens Super Regional
Georgia will win the super regional, 2-1.
Mississippi State's starting pitching should lead to one win, but the bullpen concerns are legitimate, especially against Georgia's potent offense. MSU has also struggled to beat elite teams this season.
However, O'Connor has won seven of the nine super regionals he's coached in his career, so expect a super competitive series.
Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X @sklarsam_.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State baseball vs Georgia prediction in NCAA super regional
Continue reading...
