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DENVER, COLORADO - NOVEMBER 6: Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos interacts with head coach Sean Payton during the second half of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field At Mile High on November 06, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, Broncos Country!
As a rookie, Bo Nix threw for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns. In his sophomore campaign, the passing yards increased slightly to 3,931 while Nix’s TDs dipped to 25.
NFL sportsbooks for the upcoming season have Nix “setting an all-time low” (as the Denver Post phrased it) at 23.5-24.5 touchdowns, depending on the book, and around 3,500 passing yards. A bit hyperbolic in its reference, the Post isn’t wrong in noting either number would be Nix’s lowest production since coming into the NFL.
Are you taking the over or under on that line?
It would seem logical to predict Nix improving every year, and the two numbers indicate a lack of confidence in our franchise QB doing that.
There is room for skepticism given that Nix will be coming back from two ankle surgeries in the offseason and that the Broncos’ schedule this season seems to acknowledge its success the past two years by offering a brutal slate of opponents. There is also talk that with Davis Webb doing the play calling, the Broncos will finally lean in to their running game more, limiting those passes from Nix.
Still, choosing a lower number of touchdown passes in a season where Jaylen Waddle is joining the team seems a little off. I’m definitely taking the over on that number.
And I would be much more likely to go with ESPN’s prediction for Nix — having better numbers than Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, throwing for over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns.
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